MLB Best Bets for Sunday, May 17: Mets Making Moves?
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sun May 17, 2026, 12:16 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Happy Sunday, ladies and gentleman! I hope you've had a nice and relaxing morning and are geared up for some action on the dirt this afternoon.
We have every team in action today, so let's look to make the most of it with my MLB best bets for Sunday, May 17.
MLB Best Bets for Sunday, May 17
New York Yankees vs New York Mets
No better way for the Subway Series to conclude than for it to come down to a rubber match.
The Yankees took the first game on Friday night, 5-2, but the Mets rallied back on Saturday to claim a 6-3 win.
For the third game of the series, it will be right-hander Freddy Peralta for the Mets and fellow righty Elmer Rodriguez for the Yankees.
Peralta has pitched well for the Mets this season with a 3.10 ERA and 3.66 FIP, and he's limiting hard contact with a 37% hard-hit rate and 4% barrel rate.
Obviously, things could change in an instant when facing the Bronx Bombers, but I certainly have more conviction in Peralta compared to the relatively unknown Rodriguez. The 22-year-old has made two starts this season, totaling 8.2 innings while allowing five earned runs on 10 hits. He's also walked more batters, eight, than he's struck out, five.
His ERA sits at 5.19, but his expected ERA is 7.46 and his xFIP is north of seven as well.
The Mets' bats have been picking it up lately, and they also have the advantage on the mound, which is why I'll be backing them this afternoon.
However, full disclosure: every time I back the Mets, they let me down, so bettors beware. Still, I'll be siding with them this afternoon.
Bet: Mets Moneyline (-120)
Pitching Props
- Gavin Williams Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-125)
- Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-121)
Along with sweating out the Mets moneyline, I'll also be investing in a pair of props.
Let's start with today's matchup in Cleveland, as Gavin Williams and the Guardians take on the Cincinnati Reds.
Williams has been a stud this season with a 3.74 ERA and 3.23 xFIP. He's been no stranger to punchouts either, recording double-digit strikeouts in two different starts this year. Overall, he's averaging 7.3 Ks per outing and has stayed under this mark of 7.5 in five of his nine starts, including each of his past two.
The Reds can be a bit of a liability at the plate when it comes to strikeouts, but we have seen slight improvement since the start of May, as their K-rate has dropped to 21%, which is a nice improvement from their season-long mark of 23.3%.
These numbers feel just a bit too high, and we're not having to lay much juice to support what I believe is the right side.
Additionally, in today's matchup between the Rangers and Astros, we have another quality look with a pitching prop, but this time I'll be backing the over on Nathan Eovaldi.
I'm expecting the 36-year-old to tally at least six strikeouts against this Astros lineup that owns a 21.5% strikeout rate this season, but a drastically worse mark of 26% since May 1. That ranks second worst in baseball during that span.
Eovaldi is still posting a respectable 18.5% strikeout-to-walk ratio, has 15 total strikeouts across his previous two starts and has gone over this number in five of eight starts this season. Look for Eovaldi to make it six.
MLB Best Bets:
- Mets Moneyline (-120 at Lucky Rebel)
- Gavin Williams Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-125 at Lucky Rebel)
- Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-121 at Lucky Rebel)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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