MLB Best Bets for Sunday, April 12: Can the Cubbies Cruise?
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sun Apr 12, 2026, 11:20 am ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
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Naturally, after sweeping the card on Friday, we slid on Saturday with a couple of misses. Luckily for us, there's plenty of action on the Sunday MLB slate to get back into the winning column.
That's what we'll look to do below with my MLB best bets for Sunday, April 12.
MLB Best Bets for Sunday, April 12
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies
Let's begin with a rubber match in Philadelphia, with the Phillies looking to control home field in Game 3 against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The 23-year-old right-hander Andrew Painter looks to be the one to deliver the Phillies a series win, and despite what his 4.82 ERA suggests, there's reason to believe this start could tilt in the other direction.
Painter's expected ERA sits at 2.54, while his FIP is 1.83. He also isn't getting pummeled, with a 29% hard-hit rate and just a 3.2% barrel rate, so positive regression should be on the way. It also wouldn't be a shock to see that come against a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 28th in wRC+ (76) against righties this season.
On the other side, the Phillies have been better against right-handers, sitting 13th in wRC+ (106). At face value, this may seem like a tougher matchup considering they're facing Zac Gallen, who owns a 3.00 ERA. However, his underlying metrics tell a different story, with a 5.57 xERA and 4.67 xFIP. He's also posted just a 4.8% strikeout-to-walk ratio and a concerning 12.5% barrel rate.
This isn't a lineup Gallen wants to face on the road in a series rubber match, and I'm expecting those underlying numbers to come to fruition this afternoon.
Bet: Phillies Moneyline (-140)
Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays
Next, we take a trip up north to Toronto, where the Blue Jays play host to the Minnesota Twins in their series rubber match.
The veteran Max Scherzer looks to seal the deal for the home team. Through two starts, he's posting a 3.38 ERA, but a slightly concerning 4.62 xFIP. The good news is his BABIP (.190) and left-on-base percentage (96.2%) are both tremendous, but he could be in line for a bit of regression.
What's also worth noting is that he left his last start prematurely against the Dodgers with right forearm tendinitis after two innings. It didn't appear too serious, though, considering he's already back in the rotation.
Meanwhile, there's plenty to feel good about in the visitor's dugout, with right-hander Taj Bradley set to take the bump. The 25-year-old has looked like a stud through three starts this season, posting a 1.08 ERA and a 1.56 FIP. He also hasn't surrendered a home run, owns a 25.7% strikeout-to-walk ratio and carries a 1.08 WHIP.
Both offenses have been below average in OPS, wRC+ and ISO against righties this season, which explains the lower total sitting around 7.5.
Instead of sweating out half the game, I'm targeting the First Three Innings Under. The best price I've seen is -125 on 2.5 runs, and that's what I'll be dabbling with in this matchup.
Bet: Twins / Blue Jays First 3 Innings Under 2.5 (-125)
Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers
What's been going on with the Brew Crew? They've dropped their last four games and now have their backs against the wall at home, staring at a potential three-game sweep by the Washington Nationals.
Luckily for Milwaukee, they get to face an arm that's due for regression in Zack Littell. The 30-year-old righty owns a solid 3.60 ERA, but his underlying numbers are concerning – a 5.82 FIP, 18% HR/FB rate, 45.5% hard-hit rate and just a 4.4% strikeout-to-walk ratio.
I don't trust Littell to put a stamp on this series for Washington, and I expect the Brewers' bats to come alive against him.
On the flip side, Brandon Woodruff will need to hold his own on the bump. He's off to a rough start, allowing 12 hits and seven earned runs through his first two outings of 2026.
Not to worry, though, he's posting a 3.28 xERA and a 30.3% hard-hit rate.
The Nationals' bats have been hot to start the season, but this feels like a classic letdown spot. Look for Milwaukee to stand its ground and avoid the sweep at home this afternoon.
Bet: Brewers -1.5 (+100)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
Speaking of wondering what's been going on with teams, how about the Chicago Cubs? They're on the verge of getting swept in a three-game set at home against their division foe, the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Game 1 was a tough beat for the Cubbies, after Shota Imanaga was pulled in the middle of a no-hitter through six, only for the bullpen to blow it immediately in a 2-0 loss. Then on Saturday, the Cubs had ample opportunity to close things out in extras, only to squander it and fall 4-3.
The theme in these struggles has been a lack of offensive firepower, but perhaps we see a resurgence on Sunday afternoon.
Not only is the wind blowing out at an absurd 26 MPH to left-center, but they're also facing Bubba Chandler, whose 6.39 xERA and 5.76 xFIP suggest his 3.12 ERA won't hold. And if that's not enough, he carries a 15% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate into these windy conditions.
Factor that in with the Cubs' desperation level starting to creep up — even this early in April — and we could see a more inspired effort from this lineup.
Now, those winds will impact Jameson Taillon, too, who gets the nod for Chicago. And full disclosure, he's an arm I rarely, and I mean rarely, look to back. His underlying metrics have been poor over the past three years, and through two starts in 2026, not much has changed. He owns a 2.53 ERA, but a 5.11 xFIP. To his credit, he's running a .219 BABIP and an 88% LOB rate, but let's be honest, he could get knocked around a bit as well.
Nevertheless, I'm a sucker for backing respectable home teams trying to avoid a sweep, especially with the noise building around the city about this team's early-season disappointment. This could be a wake-up call spot for the North Siders, and I'm willing to invest in that angle.
Bet: Cubs Moneyline (-134)
Best Bets:
- Phillies Moneyline (-140)
- Twins / Blue Jays First 3 Innings Under 2.5 (-125)
- Brewers -1.5 (+100)
- Cubs Moneyline (-134)
MLB Record: 22-15-1 (+6.82 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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