MLB Best Bets for Monday, March 30: Monday’s are not for Minnesota
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Mon Mar 30, 2026, 12:10 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Let's start the week on the right note, folks. We've got a full slate of MLB action to dive into, and I've got a pair of plays worth considering for Monday.
Let's dive into my MLB best bets for Monday, March 30.
MLB Best Bets for Monday, March 30
Royals -1.5 (+125) vs Twins
How about a mid-afternoon Monday matchup between the Kansas City Royals and the Minnesota Twins?
First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET, with lefty Kris Bubic scheduled to deliver it for Kansas City.
Bubic is coming off an All-Star season, compiling an 8-7 record with a 2.55 ERA and a 2.89 FIP. His HR/FB rate was a low 5.7%, while also maintaining an impressive 47.2% ground ball rate.
Last year, Minnesota was an average offense against lefties, posting a 97 wRC+. Through three games this season, two of which were losses to the Orioles, the Twins have logged 38 plate appearances against southpaws, hitting .156 with a 52 wRC+.
Obviously, I'm taking those numbers with a grain of salt, but it's clear the Twins have not gotten off to a hot start, and I don't expect that to change this afternoon.
I don't feel the same about the Royals' offense, though. They'll face Simeon Woods-Richardson, who posted a 4.04 ERA and a 4.71 xFIP last season. He doesn't keep the ball on the ground, with a low 32.5% ground ball rate, and he also gave up a high 11.4% barrel rate while walking nearly four batters per nine innings.
Through three games, the Royals also dropped two out of three in Atlanta, and across 73 at-bats are hitting .156 with a 59 wRC+ against righties. Last season, they weren't anything special against right-handed pitching either, hitting .251 with a 97 wRC+.
That said, this is a familiar arm they've had success against. Woods-Richardson is 1-2 with a 4.80 ERA in three starts against Kansas City.
An advantageous pitching matchup paired with the home opener makes the Royals' run line very intriguing – count me in.
Cubs -1.5 (+115) vs Angels
For a team pegged as the favorite to win their division, the Chicago Cubs certainly did not play the part in their opening series against the Washington Nationals, a team projected to finish near the bottom of the league.
The Cubs dropped two out of three games at Wrigley, losing 10-4 on Thursday, bouncing back with a 10-2 win on Saturday and then falling 6-3 in Sunday's rubber match.
Yes, it's early and yes it's just a few games, but this is the type of start I expected from this team. I've been saying all offseason that this could be a slower start for this Cubbies squad. There's no true ace right now, the pitching lacks consistency and the bats could take a month or so to really get going.
And honestly, that's fine. If anything, it should give bettors a better number on their futures and create some value on a game-to-game basis like tonight.
That was the same thought process on Saturday when I played the Cubs on the run line, which cashed in their 10-2 win.
I'm going right back to it here, expecting both the bats and pitching to show up.
Offensively, they'll be facing rookie right-hander Ryan Johnson, who is expected to make his first career start for the Angels. The 23-year-old appeared in 14 games last year, totaling just 14.2 innings while posting a 7.36 ERA.
There's not much to take away from a sample that small, but going into Wrigley Field for your first career start against a hungry team is no easy task and I expect some struggles.
As for the home team, this will be Edward Cabrera's first start as a Cub after being acquired from the Marlins in a deal that sent Owen Caissie, Cristian Hernández and Edgardo De Leon to Miami.
With Matthew Boyd already showing signs of regression and Justin Steele still a couple of months away, this is a real opportunity for Cabrera to step in and become a reliable arm, maybe even more than that.
He's coming off a 2025 season with a 3.53 ERA and a 3.62 xFIP. There's some risk with the long ball after posting a 13.6% HR/FB rate, but he also generates plenty of ground balls with a 46.6% rate.
The Angels' bats got off to a hot start in Houston, but I expect some regression to kick in here. And don't knock that Wrigley magic for a first-time player making his debut, the crowd will be rocking and eager for the Cubs to get back into the win column. This was their biggest pitching acquisition this offseason, and with a great night in Chicago setting up, with temps over 70 degrees, the stands should be packed and hopeful to celebrate a win.
Best Bets:
MLB Record: 5-2-1 (+3.2 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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