MLB Best Bets for Friday, May 8: Feelin’ the Phillies

The Phillies' four-game win streak came to an end Thursday night when they got crushed by the A's, 12-1. Still, they took two of three against the Athletics and have won nine of their last 12 games.

Now, they'll continue their homestand with a three-game series against the Mile High City's very own Colorado Rockies. Colorado picked up a 6-2 win over the Mets in New York on Friday night, snapping a six-game losing streak.

The Rockies will send right-hander Chase Dollander to the mound tonight. The 24-year-old has appeared in eight games and technically made just one start, though he often goes at least four innings.

Overall, his numbers have been strong. He's posting a 3.38 ERA and 3.47 xFIP while forcing hitters into ground balls at a rate above 51%. The biggest concerns are his 52.5% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate, but outside of that, he's been steady.

As for the home team, left-hander Jesús Luzardo will get the ball for Philadelphia. Luzardo has been a fascinating case this season. His ERA sits above 5.00, but his expected ERA is 3.17 and his xFIP is 2.42. He's clearly trending in the right direction, and that's evident in those metrics, along with his 24.4% strikeout-to-walk rate, 29% hard-hit rate and 5.5% barrel rate. Additionally, over his last three starts, he's allowed just three runs while piling up 21 strikeouts compared to only four walks.

Since the middle of April, the Rockies rank dead last in wRC+ (60) against lefties.

To be fair, though, the Phillies' bats haven't been much better against righties, but they're beginning to heat up, have far more power throughout the lineup and also have a pitcher in Luzardo who appears to be finding his stride.

Let's look for Philly to win by at least a couple of runs in this matchup.

A battle of lefties takes place at Progressive Field on Friday evening, as Parker Messick and the Cleveland Guardians host Connor Prielipp and the Minnesota Twins.

Messick has been a stud through seven starts, posting a 3-1 record with a 2.40 ERA, 2.86 xERA and a 3.01 xFIP. Not only is he forcing hitters into ground balls at a respectable clip, but he's also limiting damage with a 26.7% hard-hit rate and 5% barrel rate.

The Twins have been trending poorly against left-handed pitching over the past few weeks, posting an 85 wRC+, .656 OPS and .087 ISO.

On the flip side, the Guardians have been much better against lefties during that span, recording a 108 wRC+, .758 OPS and .150 ISO.

They'll get a chance to display that power against Prielipp, who's been solid through three outings with a 3.86 ERA. What's concerning, though, is his 4.41 xFIP, low ground-ball rate of 28.6% and especially his 14% barrel rate.

The Guardians have the clear edge both on the mound and at the plate, and we should look to capitalize on that with a very appealing plus-money run line price.

Can I interest you in one more run line? The Kansas City Royals are a team to target in that department tonight as well.

Left-hander Kris Bubic is set to start for the home team, and his 3.32 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 41% ground-ball rate and 7% HR/FB rate are instilling plenty of confidence heading into this matchup.

That, along with Kansas City's offense posting a 114 wRC+, .776 OPS and .167 ISO against righties over the past few weeks, helps build a compelling case for backing the Royals.

That lineup will be squared off against Keider Montero, whose 3.48 ERA is appealing, though his 4.52 xFIP, 4.40 SIERA, 33% ground-ball rate and 67% left-on-base rate are far less encouraging.

The Royals are in a good position to get back on track after dropping their last two games against Cleveland. Look for Kansas City to roll at Kauffman Stadium on Friday night.