Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Preview (July 5): Woodruff Leads Brewers In Potential Playoff Preview Against Megill, Mets at Citi Field

Matt Wiesenfeld

I hope you had a great 4th of July Weekend. Monday has a smaller MLB betting slate as we kickoff the final week of action before the All-Star Game in Colorado.

The selection for the Game of the Day was obvious today. Milwaukee and New York are in first place in their respective divisions, so this is a possible playoff preview. This is also the only series in the National League where both teams were over .500.

The Brewers lost on Sunday, but this is one of the hottest teams in the league right now. The Mets lost on Sunday too, but they won the series against the rival New York Yankees over the weekend.

Both of these teams are pitching first groups, so runs might be hard to come by this week at Citi Field.

Milwaukee Brewers (51-34) vs New York Mets (43-37), Bally Sports Wisconsin, 7:10 PM ET

Probable Pitchers

  • Milwaukee Brewers: Brandon Woodruff: (7-3, 1.87 ERA)
  • New York Mets: Tyler Megill (0-0, 4.82 ERA)

Brewers vs Mets Betting Odds

  • Moneyline: Brewers -143, Mets +119
  • Total: OVER 7 (-119), UNDER 7 (-101)
  • Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+127), Mets +1.5 (-153)

Odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Monday, July 5 at 8:55 am ET. For MLB betting odds for today’s other matchups, check out our MLB odds.

Brewers vs Mets Betting Consensus

  • Moneyline: Brewers 40%, Mets 60%
  • Total: Over 20%, Under 80%
  • Run line: Milwaukee 20%, Mets 80%

Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets July 5 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More

When the Brewers Can Score

Prior to the loss on Sunday the Brewers had won 11 in a row. All season long the team has pitched well, but the key to more consistent success has been the offense. Only twice in those 11 games did they score less than 5 runs, and they have moved up to 14th in the Majors in scoring. With the arms they have, they are a very dangerous team when their offense is competent. Now might be the time to look at some MLB betting futures.

The offense can even be better as they are still getting nothing from IF Keston Hiura and not much more from OF Christian Yelich. Those were supposed to be the Brewers’ two biggest bats. Instead they have been leaning on SS Willy Adames and OF Avisail Garcia. The reality is the Brewers have built themselves a nice cushion in the NL Central but still look like they have room to grow.

Mets Still Leading in NL East

Every time I write about the Mets I write that they are still in first place, for now. With Washington cooling they have waited out their latest threat, and they will most likely head into the All-Star Game with the division lead. Similar to Milwaukee this team has pitched really well (not just deGrom) but is waiting on their offense to show up.

New York is the second-lowest scoring team in the Majors. 1B Pete Alonso has been their only real power threat, and the Polar Bear is not swatting homes like he did back in 2019. SS Francisco Lindor has finally established himself at over .200, but he has not been the dynamic offensive player he was in Cleveland. The potential is there for this to be a middle tier offense. Until they get there, I am going to keep assuming they will slide from their perch atop the NL East.

Brandon Woodruff Home vs. Away

  • Home: 3-0, 2.22 ERA, 48.2 IP, 57 Ks, 9 BBs
  • Away: 4-3, 1.55 ERA, 52.1 IP, 62 Ks, 15 BBs

Tyler Megill Home vs. Away

  • Home: 0-0, 4.15, 4.1 IP, 4 Ks, 2 BBs
  • Away: 0-0, 5.40, 5 IP, 8 Ks, 2 BBs

Tall righty Tyler Megill might become something, but the mound matchup today is a total mismatch. Woodruff is having his best season ever with Milwaukee and similar to the team, it would not be a bad bet to put a future play on him to win the Cy Young award. He is third in the Majors in ERA, and his splits show that he has no issues with pitching on the road. Against a light Mets lineup he should have another strong game on Monday.

Brewers vs. Mets Best Bet: Brewers Run Line – This is a simple play, similar to when the Mets put deGrom out there. You can get good value fading Woodruff, but it is a hard call to make. With the Brewers scoring more runs these days, it is even more comfortable to back their ace on the run line. Milwaukee has won 6 of his last 7 starts.

July 5 MLB Betting Matchups – National League

MLB Betting Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants, NBC Sports Bay Area, 6:10 PM ET

Probable Pitchers:

  • St. Louis Cardinals: Kwang Hyun-Kim (2-5, 3.79 ERA)
  • San Francisco Giants: Kevin Gausman (8-2, 1.68 ERA)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants July 5 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More

MLB Betting Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins, Bally Sports Florida, 6:40 PM ET

Probable Pitchers:

  • Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler (8-2, 2.35 ERA)
  • Miami Marlins: Trevor Rogers (7-5, 2.14 ERA)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins July 5 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More

MLB Betting Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, ATT Sportsnet Pittsburgh, 7:05 PM ET

Probable Pitchers:

  • Atlanta Braves: Max Fried (5-4, 4.16 ERA)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: Chase De Jong (0-3, 5.65 ERA)

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates July 5 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More

MLB Betting Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs, Marquee Sports Network, 8:05 PM ET

Probable Pitchers:

  • Philadelphia Phillies: Matt Moore (0-1, 5.79 ERA)
  • Chicago Cubs: Zach Davies (5-5, 4.32 ERA)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs July 5 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More

MLB Betting Matchup: Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres, Bally Sports San Diego, 10:10 PM ET

Probable Pitchers:

  • Washington Nationals: TBD
  • San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove (5-6, 2.63 ERA)

Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres July 5 Matchup: Picks, Odds, Stats and More

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