Marlins vs. Braves (September 2): Will Morton & Alcantara steal the show in Atlanta?

Eddie Griffin

The NL Cy Young Award may not be 100 percent decided just yet, but Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara will take a pretty big step towards wrapping it up tonight in Atlanta.

With 2021 winner Corbin Burnes falling well behind thanks to an underwhelming August and potential challenger Tony Gonsolin going on the injured list this week, Alcantara is in a commanding position ahead of his start against the Braves.

At FanDuel, he is an -850 favorite, with Atlanta’s Max Fried and Julio Urias of the Dodgers next in line at +2500, followed by Burnes and Gonsolin at +3500.

With several starts still remaining after this one, Alcantara could still falter, and Fried, Urias, or Burnes could make a late charge. But if he has his way with the reigning World Series champions tonight, the odds of any of that occurring will diminish even more.

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Miami Marlins (55-75, 29-37 away, 4th in the NL East) vs. Atlanta Braves (81-51, 44-25 home, 2nd in the NL East)
  • Venue & Location: Truist Park (Atlanta, Georgia)
  • Date: Friday, September 2, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:20 p.m. Eastern Time
  • Marlins vs. Braves TV Info: Apple TV+

Marlins vs. Braves Pitching Matchup

  • Miami Marlins: Sandy Alcantara (2022: 26 starts, 12-6, 2.13 ERA)
  • Atlanta Braves: Charlie Morton (2022: 25 starts, 6-5, 4.10 ERA)

Marlins vs. Braves Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. This article may also include odds from other legal sports betting sites that we have reviewed.

Moneyline

  • Miami Marlins +152
  • Atlanta Braves -180

Over/Under

  • Over 7 (+104)
  • Under 7 (-128)

Run Line

  • Miami Marlins +1.5 (-156)
  • Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+130)

Will Runs Be at a Premium in Atlanta?

Though this will be the fifth series between the Marlins and Braves this season (with one more to come to end the regular season), Alcantara has faced Atlanta just twice to date.

The two starts came back-to-back at the back half of May, and both were outstanding.

  • May 22 vs. Atlanta: 9 IP, 6 H, 3 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 7 K (W)
  • May 28 at Atlanta: 8 IP, 4 H, R (ER), 0 BB, 14 K (W)

The first start was the first of his four complete games this season, while the second saw him notch a season and career high in strikeouts.

Last Saturday, he pitched his fourth complete game and recorded double-digit strikeouts for the fifth time this season as he dominated the Dodgers in a 2-1 win. After having his worst start of the season in Los Angeles a week prior, he allowed one run, six hits, and two walks and struck out ten.

The 26-year-old righty has allowed 10 runs and 18 hits in his last two road starts, but in five career starts at Truist Park, he is 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA, with only eight runs (six earned) allowed in 31.1 innings.

But he might meet his match in Morton, who has four straight quality starts at home and six quality starts in his last seven home starts.

In his last four home starts, Morton has posted a 1.42 ERA. In those four starts, he has allowed just four runs, 13 hits, and seven walks and racked up 38 strikeouts.

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction and Picks

Marlins vs. Braves Prediction: Braves to win

Marlins vs. Braves Picks: Marlins/Braves under 7 (Best Value: -120 at Caesars Sportsbook & BetMGM)

With how strong both Morton and the Braves have been at home recently, it won’t be easy for Alcantara and the Marlins to come away with a win tonight at Truist Park.

Since losing two of three to the Mets shortly before the All-Star break, the Braves are 13-5 at home.

It must be noted that two of those losses have come in starts by Morton, but the Phillies and Mets are quite a bit more threatening at the plate than the Marlins, who have scored three or fewer runs in 14 of their last 16 road games.

While either side isn’t worth touching here, the under is the best play on the board as it is unlikely that we’ll see too many runs on the scoreboard tonight.

The second-best play on the board is a prop for a pitcher, but it’s for Morton, not Alcantara.

Morton recorded more than five strikeouts only once in his first five home starts this season but has done so in each of his last eight home starts. In his two most recent home starts, he struck out 12 in 6.2 innings against the Mets and 11 in six innings against the Astros.

The Marlins average a shade over nine strikeouts per game on the road this season (8.4 per game at home). Morton should rack up at least seven Ks for the fifth straight home start and for the 12th time in his last 16 overall starts, and the over will be worth backing even if his total moves from 6.5 to 7.5.

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Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.