Investigating the Impact of Extreme Heat on MLB Betting Lines & Outcomes

Betting on baseball can be a profitable hobby if you do your research, but the one thing that most people don’t consider is the weather. Baseball is one of two professional sports that is played outdoors, and the weather can play a significant role in the outcome of a baseball game.

Rain and cold temperatures plague teams and cities for much of the season, but extreme heat and humidity can be a problem in the summer months in certain cities. The extreme heat is uncomfortable for both of the teams on the field, but it affects some teams more than others.

It’s hard for oddsmakers to predict how the extreme heat is going to affect the games, and there is a chance to beat the books if you understand the weather and can predict how it will change the game.

Higher Temperatures Increases Offense

There have been a ton of studies done about weather and baseball, and it has been proven that more runs are scored in hotter weather. The baseball travels much farther in warmer weather, and the players are also able to swing more freely when it is hot outside.

Warm weather usually means that there is sun involved, and that can make for some interesting fielding conditions for the fielders. Extreme heat also chases starting pitchers from the game much quicker than on colder days, which in turn leads to more runs scored. There are certainly plenty of cases where a team has been shut out in extreme heat, but most of the time, those games seem to be high-scoring affairs.

High Humidity Affects Fly Balls

Even though warmer temperatures make it much easier to hit a home run, the opposite actually happens when there is high humidity. A humid sky is thinner than a dry sky, which should help the ball fly, but the baseball actually weighs more in a humid sky.

A baseball hit 400 feet on a day without humidity would go about 15 feet less on average in a very humid sky. A humid day affects a lot of aspects of the baseball game normally, but it should actually help to keep the ball in the park if it’s extremely humid.

Stadiums That This Might Affect

There are a lot of stadiums throughout the country that the extreme heat won’t play a factor, but there are a number of them that will be affected in the summer. Almost all of the stadiums in the Midwest portion of the country have periods of extreme heat in the summer months, and that can play a huge role when betting on baseball games.

Wrigley Field in Chicago and Busch Stadium in St. Louis are two of the most popular stadiums that have been known to be affected by the weather, and that has been the case in the last few weeks. Stadiums in Florida or on the West Coast could also be affected by the extreme heat, but it usually only plays a role for a few weeks out of the season.

Bet the “Over” More Often in Hot Weather

Even though extreme heat doesn’t guarantee that there will be more runs scored in a baseball game, the smart pick would be the over. There are just too many factors that lead to more runs being scored in hotter temperatures, and betting the under seems to be too risky.

Oddsmakers will likely try to factor the heat and weather into their run lines, but weather changes in a hurry. If you see a total line that looks too low and the weather is supposed to be hot, jump on that bet and take the over.

Tyler Vaysman

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