Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Props Aug 2nd, 2026
Written by: TonesTakes
Published: Sun Aug 02, 2026, 10:09 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-151
8
-118o
+133
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
145
8
+100u
-135
Last night we went 2-1 for a profit of +1.25 Units. That puts our YTD mark at 22-13 for a profit of +11.68 Units. Let's round out the weekend looking at my Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Red Picks and Analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Red Picks and Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Red conclude their 4 game divisional series today, at Great American Ballpark. The Red took for the first two games of the series by scores of 3-2 and 8-7. The Buccos rebounded last night by claiming a 4-1 victory. Pittsburgh scored 3 runs in the third inning and never looked back. Braxton Aschcraft went 5 innings, only allowing 1 run on 2 hits. The win moved the Pirates back to .500 as they now sit 2.5 games out of the final National League Wildcard spot. The trade deadline looms tomorrow and Pittsburgh actually made a move to improve their team as they traded for New York Yankee reliever Camilo Doval yesterday. It will be interesting to see if they make any additional moves as they look to end a 11 year postseason drought.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Pitching Matchup
- Pittsburgh Pirates (56-56) RHP Mitch Keller (6-7, 4.83 ERA/1.31 WHIP)
- Cincinnati Reds RHP Chase Burns (12-1, 2.40 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel
Moneyline
- Pittsburgh Pirates +130
- Cincinnati Reds -157
Total
- Over 8.5 (-105)
- Under 8.5 (-114)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Predictions and Best Bets
Player Prop: Chase Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts -122 Lucky Rebel
The young Cincinnati Flame Thrower is having a fantastic season. In his 2nd campaign, Burns owns a record of 12-1 with a 2.40 earned run average with 128 Strikeouts. He gets a fantastic matchup to add to the K total in the Pittsburgh Pirates. Overall, the Buccos own a Strikeout rate of 23.9%, which is 26th in Major League Baseball. On the road, that number goes to 25.7%, which is the highest mark in all of baseball. Against right handed pitching, the Pirates 6th highest Strikeout rate and the 2nd highest over the last 15 days.
This season Burns has eclipsed this mark in 13 of his 20 starts. At Home he has hit 7+ strikeouts in 5 of his 10 starts. His advanced metrics look outstanding. Burns has a fastball velocity of 97.7, which is in the 92 percentile among Major League pitchers. Added to that is a Chase rate of 34.1 (84th percentile), Whiff rate of 31.7 (91st percentile) and a strikeout rate of 28.1 (86th percentile). Burn has faced the Pirates 5 times already in his young career and he has struck out 37 Pirate hitters in those 5 starts, hitting this mark in 4 of those starts. Burns has failed to hit this mark in his last 4 games, however, but I love him to get back on track given this matchup today against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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