Braves vs. Mets: 1st 5 Innings Props | June 24, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Tue Jun 24, 2025, 3:49 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Braves vs. Mets: The Mets offense has gone quiet lately, but the numbers suggest a bounce back is coming. Tonight presents a golden opportunity. Facing a vulnerable version of Spencer Strider, New York is in a strong position to strike early.
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Last Month: 71-154 (-15.24u)
Last Week: 14-37 (-8.25u)
Ice cold June, but we went up +2.5 units last night.
Braves vs. Mets Best Bet – June 24
Will Francisco Lindor be one of the left-handers I am counting on to do damage at the plate tonight?
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This prop is either a misprice or spot on. There is no in between. I live by a code—trust your gut when it comes to any baseball prop. This evening, we are laying the $1.40 juice for the Mets to score two runs in the first five innings.
Yes, their offense has looked lifeless over the last few weeks, but this matchup has bounce back written all over it. At home this season, New York is averaging 2.68 first five runs per game. Meanwhile, Atlanta is allowing 2.38.
Strider vs. Mets
Spencer Strider is on the mound for Atlanta. He owns the second-worst pitcher rating on the day, per Batters-Box, and carries poor grades in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate and ground ball percentage. This is not your younger brother's Spencer Strider. He has struggled this year—owning a 4.50 ERA on the road and allowing 2.75 runs per start. Overall, he carries a 3.89 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, giving up 2.42 runs, 4.14 hits, and two extra-base hits per game.
Strider faces the second-highest rated offense from today's slate, per Batters-Box season-long metrics. The Mets lineup features six elite-rated hitters, none rated poorly, one with an above league average strikeout rate, and none above the league ground ball rate. Five of those elite hitters are left-handed. Lefties are hitting .235 with a .372 OBP and .332 wOBA against Strider this year.
This is a rematch of last Thursday, where Strider held the Mets to one run on five hits over six innings while striking out eight. But tonight feels different. The Mets are desperate for a win, and I expect them to come out with urgency. Win or lose, I love the price and the number.
Go Mets.
Best Bet: Mets First Five Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-140) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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