(6/25) MLB | The Daily Dinger Report — Thursday Dingers

Varun Sharma

Written by: Varun Sharma

Last Update: Thu Jun 25, 2026, 1:10 pm ET

Read Time: 4 minutes

Kyle Schwarber

mlb

Philadelphia Phillies logo
Today6:45 pm ET
Washington Nationals logo

Philadelphia Phillies
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

-1.5

106

8

-110o

-159

Washington Nationals
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

+1.5

-120

8

-105u

+145

See Picks & Statistics For The Game

We've got a small slate of MLB games today and we're coming off back to back days without a green slip. Today we're getting a little chalky and we're going with two big time hitters in two great spots.

The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions. 

Dinger Cheat Sheet

  • BA — Batting Average
  • oBA — Opponent Batting Average
  • xBA — Expected BA
  • SLG — Slugging Percentage
  • ISO — Isolated Power
  • wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
  • HH% — Hard Hit Rate
  • BRL% — Barrel Rate
  • HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
  • XBH — Extra Base Hit
  • RBI — Runs Batted In

Dinger Counter: 8-18; +5.3 units

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Today's Dingers

Yordan Alvarez is hitting .316 this season with 21 home runs, ranking top five in the MLB in both categories - Astros Pirates Picks

Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+250) | Lucky Rebel

Yordan Alvarez is having a career year this year and we're just about half way through the season. The lefty's hitting .322 this year with a .634 SLG and 53% HH.

Yordan's got 25 home runs in 81 games played and he's tied for second most in the MLB; behind just Kyle Schwarber. In the month of June, Yordan's hitting .382 with a .632 SLG and 5 home runs.

He's batting .335 against righties this year and 17 of his 25 home runs have been against right handed pitchers (.655 SLG).

On the mound for the Tigers is righty, Troy Melton.

Melton's in his second year in the big leagues, he's got a .256 ERA and he's held opposing batters to a batting average under .200. He's 4-0 on the year, but he's given up 6 home runs in just 31 innings of work (1.7 HR/9).

Melton's giving up a 51% fly ball rate this year and 5 of the 6 home runs he's allowed have been against left handed bats. He relies heavily on a mix of his 4-seam fastball and his slider against lefties; both are pitches Yordan is hitting for power.

Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+225) | Lucky Rebel

Like I said, we're getting chalky today. Kyle Schwarber and the Phillies play their final game in Washington D.C. today and this is a ballpark Schwarber's very comfortable with.

Out of all teams in the MLB, Schwarber's hit the most home runs against the Nationals and the Reds; hitting 26 a piece against each franchise.

Schwarber also played 72 games in a Nationals' uniform. He hit 25 home runs and finished the year with a .570 SLG. In home games with the Nats, Schwarber was batting .271 and 17 of his 25 home runs came here in D.C.

On the bump for Washington is Cade Cavalli. The righty's got a 4.07 ERA and he's given up just 6 home runs across 77 innings of work (0.7 HR/9). Cavalli's letting lefties hit .303 on the year and 4 of the 6 home runs he's given up have been to left handed bats.

Schwarber hasn't seen a right handed pitcher in almost 5 days and he's crushing the ball against righties. His batting average drops to .231 but his HH jumps to 56% and 19 of his 29 home runs have been against right handed pitching.

Winds are blowing out toward center field and temperature's in the mid/high 80s. It's the perfect day for some home runs.

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Varun Sharma
Varun Sharma

You may know me as ‘VSaaauce’. I’ve been a die hard hoops fan my entire life. I’ve been betting on the NBA/NCAAB/NFL/MLB for six years now, each year gaining more and more knowledge about being a profitable handicapper. I’m eager to learn, and eager to pass on everything I’ve gained over the last few years. I started my Twitter page four years ago, and this community makes me so thankful I did. Outside of sports and handicapping, I enjoy traveling, hoopin, a strong espresso and I’m currently studying to obtain my MD. I’m all about the vibes, good vibes only. If that sounds like you, follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce.

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