2026 Home Run Futures: The Italian Nightmare | January 26, 2026
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Mon Jan 26, 2026, 10:15 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Baseball never slows down, and neither does the buzz (that I have created) around Vinnie Pasquantino entering the 2026 season. With Kauffman Stadium moving the outfield walls in, the Royals lineup could take a major step forward, and Pasquantino stands to benefit the most. The 28-year old first baseman is coming off a 32 home run season and continues to show steady growth at the plate. Improved park dimensions, a rising offense, and his natural power profile create a clear path toward a career year. If health cooperates, Pasquantino has legitimate upside to push past expectations and become one of the league's most dangerous bats.
2026 Home Run Futures
Will Vinnie Pasquantino have another 30+ home run season?
Baseball never sleeps, and neither does my new obsession with Vinnie Pasquantino possibly having a massive career year thanks to the new renovations at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are moving the outfield fence eight to ten feet in, making the park more friendly to hitters. This is nothing but great news for Kansas City, a team that has been very strong at home over the last few years. The new field renovations should only enhance an offense that is already on the rise, and it has sparked a few props that I may want to get involved with for the 2026 season.
A new feel to The K.
We're bringing in the walls at Kauffman Stadium, creating more potential for home runs, extra-base hits, home run robberies, and bringing fans closer to the action than ever before. pic.twitter.com/1RcdRli0p5
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) January 13, 2026
The Italian Nightmare should be in line for an even bigger breakout than what he showed in 2025 with the new stadium setup. The Royals 28-year old first baseman hit 32 home runs in his second full season of play, the fourth season of his career. He also posted a .264 batting average with a sub .800 OPS and a .456 slugging percentage. Lucky Rebel has his season long home run total set at 25.5. I already viewed him as a potential 40 home run hitter this season, so taking the over at 25.5 feels like a steal.
I am currently waiting for other books to open this prop to see if anyone posts a lower number or a better price. Regardless, I think this is a steal. He hit 30 plus home runs in his second full season in the big leagues. The big fella is averaging 27 home runs per 162 games. In 2024, when he played only 131 games after missing the tail end of the season with a broken thumb, he finished with 19 home runs. That year, he was hitting a home run every six games, which means he likely would have added five more had he stayed healthy.
Longshot Futures
Beyond his home run total, I have also dabbled in some longshots. I sprinkled a quarter unit on Pasquantino to win American League MVP at 250 to one. I also took him to lead the league in home runs at 150 to one. These are major longshots that I took for fun, so tail at your own risk. I also dabbled in alternate home run lines, taking Pasquantino to hit 35 plus home runs at +750 and 40 plus home runs at +4000. If I truly believe he is set up for a career high season, I might as well back that theory.
I've got @VPasquantino hitting 6-8 more homers last year if Kauffman had the new 2026 dimensions. If it was 8, it would have been 40! pic.twitter.com/tAojvXmWgl
— Jomboy (@Jomboy_) January 13, 2026
I have seen plenty of advanced metrics that do not project the Royals first baseman to have the explosive season I am envisioning. However, with the wall moved in and a shorter porch in a stadium that was never hitter friendly to begin with, I think he is set up for a massive 2026 season if he stays healthy. Most importantly, he needs to continue improving against left handed pitching. In 2025, he batted .212 with a .250 OBP and a .614 OPS against southpaws. He managed just six home runs off them, but if he can get that number to ten this season, it would be a significant improvement.
Best Bet: Vinnie Pasquatino Over 25.5 Home Runs (-115) on Lucky Rebel
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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