Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix Predictions & Picks: Will Mercedes Dominate in Montreal?

Eddie Griffin

Written by: Eddie Griffin

Last Update: Sun May 24, 2026, 9:15 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

2026 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix Predictions & Picks cover (Kimi Antonelli & George Russell)

f1

As part of arguably the most notable weekend in motorsports, this Sunday has featured the tripleheader of the Monaco Grand Prix, Indianapolis 500, and Coca-Cola 600. This year, however, Formula 1 has swapped Monaco for Montreal and the Canadian Grand Prix.

For most of the last two decades, the Monaco Grand Prix kicked off a packed day of auto racing action, followed by the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca-Cola 600, the longest race on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.

But with Monaco moving to June, this year's pre-Memorial Day marathon will instead kick off with the Indianapolis 500, with the Canadian Grand Prix sandwiching between the battle at the Brickyard and the closer in Charlotte.

This is the second straight Formula 1 race weekend in North America, after the Miami Grand Prix three weeks ago. With no April races and a gap between the two May races, F1 enthusiasts may have felt rather starved entering the fifth Grand Prix of the season.

It was fortuitous then that both the Miami round and this weekend featured a sprint. It might not be so fortuitous for Mercedes, who won the battle but will want to avoid a war after a controversial clash between sprint winner George Russell and runner-up Kimi Antonelli during the race.

Antonelli came up second in that clash and in the sprint, but he remains clear of his teammate atop the Formula 1 World Drivers' Championship standings.

However, Russell is poised to potentially cut into that deficit, as he will start on pole in his quest to secure a second straight Canadian Grand Prix victory. And as was the case for the season's first three races, Russell and Antonelli hold a clear edge over the rest of the field according to Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks.

Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix Odds and Probabilities

Odds are from Lucky Rebel.

Driver (Constructor) Odds Implied Probability True Probability
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) +145 40.82% 31.79%
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing-Red Bull Ford) +275 26.67% 20.76%
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) +500 16.67% 12.98%
Lando Norris (McLaren-Mercedes) +800 11.11% 8.65%
George Russell (Mercedes) +1400 6.67% 5.19%
Oscar Piastri (McLaren-Mercedes) +2200 4.35% 3.39%
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) +2800 3.45% 2.69%
Franco Colapinto (Alpine-Mercedes) +25000 0.40% 0.31%
Pierre Gasly (Alpine-Mercedes) +25000 0.40% 0.31%
Isack Hadjar (Red Bull Racing-Red Bull Ford) +100000 0.10% 0.08%
Nico Hülkenberg (Audi) +100000 0.10% 0.08%
Oliver Bearman (Haas-Ferrari) +100000 0.10% 0.08%
Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls-Red Bull Ford) +150000 0.07% 0.05%
Alex Albon (Atlassian Williams-Mercedes) +200000 0.05% 0.04%
Carlos Sainz (Atlassian Williams-Mercedes) +200000 0.05% 0.04%
Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls-Red Bull Ford) +250000 0.04% 0.03%
Esteban Ocon (Haas-Ferrari) +250000 0.04% 0.03%
Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi) +300000 0.03% 0.03%
Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin Aramco-Honda) +400000 0.02% 0.02%
Lance Stroll (Aston Martin Aramco-Honda) +400000 0.02% 0.02%
Sergio Pérez (Cadillac-Ferrari) +400000 0.02% 0.02%
Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac-Ferrari) +400000 0.02% 0.02%
Lucky Rebel Sportsbook logo 4.9/5 Review Rating
Bonus & Benefits
Up to $1,250 + 50 Free Slots Spins
See our review »
$1,250 Welcome Bonus
Bet Live on Your Favorite Sports
Earn More with Rebel Rewards!

Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix Starting Grid

Pos. Driver (Constructor) Q1 Q2 Q3 Grid
1 George Russell (Mercedes) 1:13.953 1:13.079 1:12.578 1
2 Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) 1:13.380 1:13.076 1:12.646 2
3 Lando Norris (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:13.503 1:13.049 1:12.729 3
4 Oscar Piastri (McLaren-Mercedes) 1:13.559 1:13.285 1:12.781 4
5 Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) 1:13.767 1:13.041 1:12.868 5
6 Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing-Red Bull Ford) 1:14.067 1:13.479 1:12.907 6
7 Isack Hadjar (Red Bull Racing-Red Bull Ford) 1:13.654 1:12.975 1:12.935 7
8 Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) 1:13.825 1:13.496 1:12.976 8
9 Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls-Red Bull Ford) 1:13.895 1:13.548 1:13.280 9
10 Franco Colapinto (Alpine-Mercedes) 1:14.466 1:13.857 1:13.697 10
11 Nico Hülkenberg (Audi) 1:14.562 1:13.886 N/A 11
12 Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls-Red Bull Ford) 1:14.346 1:13.897 N/A 12
13 Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi) 1:14.775 1:14.071 N/A 13
14 Pierre Gasly (Alpine-Mercedes) 1:14.698 1:14.187 N/A 14
15 Carlos Sainz Jr. (Atlassian Williams-Mercedes) 1:14.276 1:14.273 N/A 15
16 Oliver Bearman (Haas-Ferrari) 1:14.449 1:14.416 N/A 16
17 Esteban Ocon (Haas-Ferrari) 1:14.845 N/A N/A 17
18 Alexander Albon (Atlassian Williams-Mercedes) 1:14.851 N/A N/A 18
19 Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin Aramco-Honda) 1:15.196 N/A N/A 19
20 Sergio Pérez (Cadillac-Ferrari) 1:15.429 N/A N/A 20
21 Lance Stroll (Aston Martin Aramco-Honda) 1:16.195 N/A N/A 21
22 Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac-Ferrari) 1:16.272 N/A N/A 1`

Canadian Grand Prix Predictions and Picks

Liam Lawson to Finish in the Top 10 (-120 at Lucky Rebel)

In yesterday's sprint, the Kiwi started 18th but finished 11th, getting bumped up a spot thanks to Sergio Perez receiving a 10-second time penalty for running afoul of the rules in a duel with Lawson.

I went with this pick for the Miami Grand Prix and came up empty-handed because Lawson retired after a handful of laps.

If nothing else, I'm consistent and persistent, and I'm going back to the well with Lawson, who has made a decent impression early on in his second full Formula 1 season. I'd love it if these odds were evens or longer, but this is decent value still.

Charles Leclerc to Finish in the Top Six (+100 at Lucky Rebel)

Leclerc had his worst qualifying result of the season to date, but that presents a rare opportunity to back him for a top-six finish at a nice price.

After finishing third, fourth, and third to start the season, Leclerc came in a season-worst eighth in Miami. But don't expect a similar finish in Montreal, as it is rather rare for Leclerc to finish outside of the top six in consecutive races.

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.