F1 Expert Picks for The Italian Grand Prix: Can Ferrari Defend Their Home Race?

Formula One fans this weekend we head out to the iconic grounds of the Italian Grand Prix. Home of Ferrari this race is one that every team tries a little harder to win every single year. Whether you are Ferrari trying to defend home turf or another team trying to steal the Italian crown from Ferrari, this race is always just a little more competitive.

The Italian Grand Prix is celebrating the 125th edition of the race dating all the way back to 1921. One of the most iconic races on the calendar every year this race always provides us with drama and action.

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Italian Grand Prix Race Breakdown and Analysis

A high speed track where teams are sacrificing down force for aerodynamics. Most teams will go with thinner rear wings for this race letting them have less drags and more speed. But with that they also sacrifice some downforce and grip on the track making a lot of the cars more slippery and difficult to handle in the major breaking zones that we also have on this track.

The keys to winning in Italy are pretty staightforward but hard to master. The teams will reduce the drag but the drivers must manage the breaking and tires on this track. With the long straights that Monza has it can cool down the tires very quickly putting the cars at greater risk of locking up on corners.

One more thing drivers must master is "The Tow". That is when drivers will use cars ahead of them as a slip stream to slingshot themselves past opponents at major speeds. This is something that happens at every track but is even more prevelant at Monza.

Also to note Kimi Antonelli had to replace his engine so he recieved a grid penalty and will start at the back of the grid.

Free Practice & Qualifying Breakdown

In Free Practice One we saw the Ferrari's dominate as they were .304 seconds faster than the next best cars. But that did not last for long as the other teams made changes and caught up to the Ferrari. In Free Practice Two Mercedes took first and third as the Ferrari fell down to second and fifth.

In the third session Mercedes continued to advance and Ferrari continued to slip. We also saw some great driving from Max Verstappen and Lando Norris who were able to place third and fifth respectively in this session.

For the Qualifying session we saw usual Williams, Audi, Haas, and Cadillac get eliminated early in the first two sessions. Surprisingly though we had both Alpine cars make it through to the final session securing top 10 starting positions. There was a lot of internal drama for all of the teams during qualifying as a lot of drivers complained of tire and break issues.

The Ferrari cars continued to struggle only qualifying fourth and fifth. But the most impressive performance of this qualifying session was Pierre Gasly stealing pole position from George Russell in the final moments of the session.

Italian Grand Prix Qualifying Results

1. Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
2. George Russell (Mercedes)
3. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
4. Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
5. Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
6. Franco Colapinto (Alpine)
7. Lando Norris (McLaren)
8. Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls)
9. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) *Grid Penalty
10. Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes *Grid Penalty

Italian Grand Prix Predictions & Best Bets

Race Winner: George Russell +150 on Lucky Rebel

 

Placing P2 will not be an issue for the Mercedes driver. With the speed and overtaking ability I expect Russell to pass Gasly withing the first few laps of the race. The bigger question is will he be able to hold off the Ferrari cars who will be nipping at his heals for most of this race.

Russell seriously needs this win with Antonelli recieving an engine penalty this is a prime opportunity for him to make up ground in the drivers championship.

Total Classified Drivers 3-Way: Between 19-20 inclusive -105 on Lucky Rebel

Monza is a grueling track on these cars. With the breaking difficulty and tire management being key factors on this track it is a lot for drivers to manage as they race around the track. We saw multiple break lock ups and overstearing during the practice and qualifying sessions. I uindoubtedly expect more of this during the race.

Virtual Safety Car During The Race-Yes -115 on Lucky Rebel

To back pack off the last bet. I am expecting cars to run off the track or even crash into a wall during this race. With those mishaps the safety cars come out and if they do this bet will cash us out.

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