There is a nice 6-game slate on the docket for MLB DFS on Saturday night. When looking at this slate I see a lot of really interesting pitching options and no real stars besides Clayton Kershaw off of injury and Noah Syndergaard, who just simply hasn’t been that good. I think the lack of options is something we need to attack on all sites. I believe that Fanduel will see overwhelming ownership on the top options because the lower tier doesn’t make you feel too comfortable.
Let’s talk about why I want to be under the field on both Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard. This is a rough matchup or both guys for different reasons. Kershaw has just simply not been that good and now faces a Pirates team that doesn’t swing and miss very much. Kershaw has still been decent in his recent, but his advanced numbers suggest that he has been incredibly lucky with a .172 BABIP and an 85% LOB%. I think everyone will overlook this because Kershaw has “looked fine,” but I think you should avoid Kershaw and his likely high ownership
Syndergaard has struggled to start the season and this is a horrible matchup. The Brewers offense is really, really good and Syndergaard simply leaves too many pitches over the heart of the zone and I think this news has gotten out. You can wait for a miss from Syndergaard and really take advantage of it and it is happening more often the last few year. I will be staying away from Syndergaard really moving forward unless the price is too good to pass up with his obvious upside.
Mike Foltynewicz threw 89 pitches in a rehab start last Sunday and the Rockies are not the best offense on the slate, but he gave up 6 runs and had only 2K’s. That is incredibly concerning and I will be stacking Rockies unless this is the chalk.
Jon Gray is the most talented guy on the board after the first two, but the matchup is bad. I will be overweight on Gray due to his talent, but that is a product of the slate.
Joe Musgrove is a perfectly average pitcher that rarely does fantastic things or horrible things. I like Musgrove in some situations, but vs. the Dodgers is not one. I will likely avoid this spot on both sides. I do like Dodger one-offs over using Musgrove.
Both Mike Leake and Minor are not really great options on this slate vs. scary lineups in different aspects. Leake is not a good pitcher and he really relies on limiting power to have any success. The Rangers basically focus on using their power to score runs and I think this is a horrible spot for Leake and a great spot for bats. Minor is better/more talented than people realize, but I think this Seattle offense is good. I would much rather play Minor due to his good slider and ability to get swings and misses, but I would rather game stack this game.
Of the low-priced options, Woodruff is probably my favorite due to his raw stuff. Woodruff is talented and I think that his early stats this year don’t tell the whole story. Woodruff has posted a .366 BABIP and a 67% LOB%, both numbers that would inflate stats and will likely not continue. This is a buy low spot on Woodruff.
The Cubs and Diamondbacks game provides two boom or busts spots. Yu Darvish has walked 7.15 guys per 9 innings. I think that he is still a solid pitcher IF he can throw strikes. You can play Yu Darvish if you think its worth the risk, but a stack vs. a walk-heavy pitcher can always provide a lot of runs. I used to really like Godley but his stuff has gotten worse and so has his velocity. I will stay away from Godley or the most part, but it does intrigue me that I have seen him be an above average pitcher before and he isn’t at the age where he should be downtrending like he is.
I prefer Jaime Baria to Jorge Lopez because I think Baria has a little more upside. Lopez is a grinder and I think he has ran good. The park isn’t great, but I’d prefer the Angels over Lopez.
Baria isn’t super stretched out, but I do think he has 6 innings and 8K upside if given the opportunity. I expect to get a decent amount of Baria tonight.