WNBA: Mercury vs. Lynx Game 1 Picks and Odds | September 21, 2025

Written by: Nick Zanghi

Published: Sun Sep 21, 2025, 12:09 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

wnba

FINAL

Phoenix Mercury

TBD

Minnesota Lynx

TBD

See Picks & Statistics For The Game

Today, we get a battle from the top team and the fourth seed in round two. The Minnesota Lynx will host the Phoenix Mercury for game one at the Target Center. Phoenix struggled during the regular series vs. Minnesota, going 1-3 in the season series.

Phoenix comes into this series off knocking out the defending champs. They almost could've got out of the series in two games, if it wasn't for a missed layup as time expired. The Mercury looked good and in control vs. the Liberty, which they'll look to carry into this series.

During the regular season, the Mercury were 27-17 and went 12-10 on the road. Not the best road record, but they really just need to steal one on the road and take care of business at home to win this series. If they can slow the Lynx game down, they have a chance.

They will need players like DeWanna Bonner to step up again. She put up 10+ points in her games off the bench and hit a big shot at the end of game 3. Players with experience like hers can push the needle in crunch time.

Check out the odds for this matchup and other WNBA games at the best online sportsbooks.

Minnesota looks to finish what they started this season and win it all

Lynx forward Napheesa Collier drives against Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas.

The Lynx held down the top spot in the league all season. They won a total of 34 games which tied for the most all time in league history. They led the league in points per game, field goal percentage, three-point percentage and assists. Minnesota plays a slower game and makes you play chess.

Forward Napheesa Collier put on an MVP type season. She is only the second player to join the 50/40/90 club, which is 50% shooting from the field, 40% from three-point range and 90% from the free throw line. Collier has battled a back injury but is so driven to win it all this year.

Defensively, they had the best defensive rating in the league (and offensive to note). Minnesota was second in steals and fourth best for turnovers per game. Like I mentioned, they play a slower game and make you play their game. Phoenix will need to speed things up to throw them off.

Minnesota has huge chips on their shoulders right now with Collier missing the league MVP and Natisha Hiedeman getting snubbed on 6th Player of the Year. The Mercury better be ready for a team with their foot on the pedal. Let's check out the odds and get into the Mercury vs. Lynx picks.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Betting Odds and Game Information

Mercury vs. Lynx Betting Odds – September 21

Spread

Phoenix Mercury +7.5 (-110)
Minnesota Lynx -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Phoenix Mercury +300
Minnesota Lynx -400

Total

Over 158 (-110)
Under 158 (-110)

Odds courtesy of BetOnline – Get 50% up to $1000 on your first deposit

Mercury vs. Lynx Game Information

Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
Tip Off: 5 p.m. EST
TV: ESPN

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Picks and Predictions

Mercury guard Sami Whitcomb gets pumped up after hitting a big shot and getting the and-1 call.

Mercury vs. Lynx Picks and Predictions: Phoenix Mercury Spread +7.5 (-110) Get 50% up to $1000 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

Minnesota is driven, but Phoenix is really pesky. I think we see the Mercury get under the Lynx skin and keep these games close. I feel like if any team could possibly knock them off before the finals, it's the Mercury.

We're going to take Phoenix with the points. I think they keep this game close and look for some revenge from the regular season. Alyssa Thomas was interviewed after the win over the Liberty and said, "they haven't seen us full strength – we're ready to play."

I like for Collier to get 22 or more points for -120. She is going to come into this game angry after not being named MVP. Phee is going to show the league what they missed out on. If she never missed time this season, she most likely would've won too.

The other play I like is DeWanna Bonner to get 5 or more rebounds for -138. She hit the number is all three games vs New York, but mainly because she's going to keep playing. Bonner has been great off the bench, and her playoff experience will keep her on the floor.