FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Future: Can Messi Hold Off Mbappe?
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Wed Jul 01, 2026, 11:15 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
FIFA World Cup
The 2026 FIFA World Cup has entered the knockout rounds, with a few Round of 16 matches already set. Typically Golden Boot wagers are placed prior to the tournament starting, and we did take stabs at four different players. However, we left out two of the best, who seem to be running away with the title. Let's look at the updated odds for this award, and I'll tell you why I think a certain player still has some value on the board. Tap in for our Golden Boot picks!
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FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Betting Odds
Can Kylian Mbappe find a way to score more than Messi throughout the remainder of the World Cup?
Odds to Win the Golden Boot
- Kylian Mbappe (France) +105
- Lionel Messi (Argentina) +125
- Erling Haaland (Norway) +1400
- Harry Kane (England) +1800
- Ousmane Dembele (France) +2000
Those are the five highest players on the odds board. A little bit further down you will find Vini Jr. (Brazil) at 33-1, Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) at 50-1 and Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) at 66-1. We actually have tickets on Kane (7-1), Dembele (33-1), Ronaldo (22-1) and Oyarzabal (14-1). However, as things currently stand, it seems like this award will be a two horse race.
Erling Haaland is propelling the Norwegians into the Round of 16, but they face Brazil next.
Current Goal Totals
- Kylian Mbappe: 6
- Lionel Messi: 6
- Erling Haaland: 5
- Vini Jr: 4
- Ousmane Dembele: 4
It's important to keep in mind, of these five players, four of them have already played their Round of 32 matchup. The only one who has not is Messi, who is tied for the lead. Now, when betting this market it's important to understand the tiebreakers, if two (or more) players end up tied on goals.
The first tiebreaker would be most assists, where Mbappe currently leads this crew with two total. If things are still even, it moves to least amount of minutes played, where Messi currently has the nod after coming off the bench in Argentina's last match, where he still found the back of the net. Finally, if things are still tied on assists and minutes played, the two players split the award.
After basically counting my other sprinkles as losses, unless Dembele turns things on, I have decided to reinvest in this market on a player I think is undervalued.
Lionel Messi is tied with Mbappe for goals this tournament, but he has played one less match
Best Bet: Lionel Messi to Win the Golden Boot (+125) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Let's be honest… "Messi" and "undervalued" probably don't belong in the same sentence, but let me explain my reasoning. For starters, I found this at +175 which I think is absolutely absurd for several reasons. First and foremost, Messi potentially has one extra match to play compared to the rest of the competition. Everyone else near the top of the goalscorer charts has played one knockout round match, Messi has not. Point for the Argentinian.
Argentina and Messi are also on the "easier" side of the bracket. France is likely going to have to go through Morocco and Spain to reach the final match, while Argentina will likely face Colombia, then Brazil before the final. Feel free to debate, but Argentina faces the weaker defenses in my eyes.
Lastly, Messi and Argentina play Cape Verde who allowed an average of 2.21 expected goals to Spain and Uruguay. After that, they likely face Egypt, who allowed 1.52 expected goals in their three group stage matches. Messi could easily net two or three more before the quarterfinals begin and he sees some real competition.
Mbappe and France face Paraguay in the Round of 16, who showed their defensive presence against Germany, holding them to just one goal in 120 minutes. France also has plenty more studs who could vulture goals from Mbappe, whereas Messi is the clear point man for Argentina. For this price, I will gladly sweat out Messi to claim the Golden Boot as I see Argentina rolling to a second straight World Cup Final.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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