English Premier League Picks and Predictions: New Year’s Day EPL Bets

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Published: Wed Dec 31, 2025, 4:55 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Erling Haaland and Manchester City face Sunderland on the road on New Year's Day - EPL Picks

EPL

Across the pond, the English Premier League kicks off the New Year with four matches on New Year's Day for their viewers. We have a couple early matches kicking off at 12:30 p.m. eastern, and a couple late ones, going off at 3:00 p.m. eastern. Naturally, our experts found us a wager in each viewing window to sweat alongside the College Football Playoff (if you're into that sort of thing). Let's get our first wins of the year with these EPL picks for the holiday!

Thursday's EPL best bets are below. Keep reading for the analysis.

Head over to our EPL Picks Page for our expert's soccer analysis, or read my best bets below.

English Premier League: Thursday's Predictions January 1

Liverpool vs. Leeds United EPL Picks

Dominik Szoboszlai has just two goals and an assist in the EPL for Liverpool this year - EPL Picks

Dominik Szoboszlai has just two goals and an assist in the EPL for Liverpool this year

Best Bet: Liverpool -1.5 (+143) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

My faith has been restored in this Liverpool team, and we are backing them to kick off the new year with at least a two goal win at Anfield against Leeds United. After a crazy hot start, followed by a horrible string of losses, Liverpool are back at No. 4 on the EPL table, sitting two points ahead of Chelsea and Manchester United with a match in hand. A win would separate the top four from the rest, and put the hosts just four points behind Aston Villa, and comfortably in a UCL Qualifying position going forward.

Leeds are No. 16 on the table, allowing 32 goals in 18 matches, which is fifth worst in the league. They've netted just four goals in their last six on the road, and the hosts are back in prime form. Liverpool have won four straight matches, shutting out Inter Milan in Italy and Brighton & Hove Albion at Anfield, and are coming off beating Tottenham on the road and Wolverhampton at home, both by a score of 2-1.

On this holiday match, I see them starting the new year aggressive, to let everyone on the EPL table know they are back in business.

Prediction: Liverpool Wins 3-1 (+1000)

Sunderland vs. Manchester City EPL Picks

Can Sunderland's back line hold strong against the Manchester City attack? EPL Picks

Can Sunderland's back line hold strong against the Manchester City attack?

Best Bet: Sunderland/Manchester City Under 3 (-126) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

We are paying a little juice for some push potential on this total here. Now, you can get Under 2.75 at (+104) on Lucky Rebel, but you do not have a "push and win" situation, as two goals wins both bets while three gives you a push and a loss. I'll pay the extra cents for a flat line on this total.

Sunderland are sitting in the top eight on the EPL table because of their defense. Offensively, they are actually bottom three in goals scored this year, but rank top three in goals allowed. At home, against a team like Manchester City, look for them to hold their ground and play very conservative when facing this star-studded visiting team. Sure, City is the highest scoring offense in the league, but their matches have stayed under or landed exactly on three goals in six straight and seven of their last nine on the road. Of their 43 EPL goals this season only 18 have come on the road while 25 have come at Etihad Stadium (nine matches at home, nine on the road).

Against a team still averaging two goals per contest on the road, Sunderland will certainly tighten up their back line and hold on for dear life, trying to secure a low scoring draw. If you're looking for a side, Sunderland +0.5 (+205) could be a fun sweat, but I've got to think City is able to get the job done.

Prediction: Manchester City Wins 1-0 (+675)

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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