Arsenal vs. Chelsea EPL Picks and Predictions: Sunday London Derby
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Sat Feb 28, 2026, 2:30 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
EPL
North and West London bring their best to Emirates Stadium on Sunday as the Gunners defend the top of the table by hosting Chelsea. The Blues are currently sixth on the EPL table, with the five top spots being extremely crucial for UEFA Champions League qualifying next season. After Saturday's matches, they are two points ahead of Brentford and three points behind both Manchester United (who plays Sunday), and Liverpool (who won on Saturday). Can the Blues keep up with an upset win on the road over the No. 1 ranked team? Keep reading for our EPL picks in this match.
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Arsenal vs. Chelsea EPL Betting Insights
Joao Pedro and Chelsea look for some sweet revenge against Arsenal, but I don't think they'll be satisfied
We have two teams who are extremely familiar with one another. They have already met once this EPL season, and twice in 2026 for the Carabao Cup Semifinals. Back in November at Stamford Bridge, the two engaged in a 1-1 draw in league play, with both goals coming after Chelsea were down a man. Then in January, Chelsea hosted the first leg of the Carabao Cup Semifinals, losing 3-2 on their own turf. After that, earlier in February, Arsenal solidified their spot in the Cup Final, winning 1-0 at home and advancing 4-2 on aggregate score. Kai Havertz found the only goal on just four combined shots on target in stoppage time.
The Gunners defended well in the semifinal second leg, and controlled 62% of possession in their EPL meeting on the road. It makes sense that they are heavily favored to earn three points at home, especially considering Manchester City is on their way to a victory on the road in Leeds.
Matchup Information – Arsenal vs. Chelsea – March 1
- Venue & Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
- Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
- Kick Off: 11:30 a.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: Peacock
Arsenal vs. Chelsea Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook as of February 28, 2026, at 2:01 p.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus and 50 slot spins., and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.
Moneyline
- Arsenal -176
- Draw +325
- Chelsea +450
Spread
- Arsenal -1 (-105)
- Chelsea +1 (-116)
Total
- Over 2.5 (-139)
- Under 2.5 (+114)
Arsenal vs. Chelsea EPL Picks and Predictions
Arsenal's back line is the best in the sport, and has been for a while
Best Bet: Arsenal ML/Under 4.5 (+100) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I think getting even money for this is a steal, and I'll simply use some trends to demonstrate Arsenal's dominance at home. Let's start with looking at them overall. Now, typically this bet right here, Arsenal ML and the Under 4.5, can be found for plus money. It has hit in 25/44 competitive matches this season, with the Gunners posting 23 shutouts as well. Arsenal to win to nil is almost always plus money.
But what about at home? At Emirates Stadium this year across all competitions, the Gunners are 18-3-1, with their lone loss coming to Manchester United in a five goal thriller. This plus money parlay has cashed in 14/22 matches at home, with a shutout happening in 13 of those contests as well.
This plus money wager (yes I will keep emphasizing that fact), hits 56.8% of the time this season, and 63.6% of the time at home. In my opinion, that's #value.
But onto the eye test. Assuming City beats Leeds, Arsenal will only be ahead two points with a match in hand (10 remaining after this contest). They need all the points they can get, and they would hate to drop an easy few at home. Even if Chelsea is one of the better teams in the league and has plenty of motivation of their own, the Gunners are simply a different animal. We saw how controlling they can be at home in the second leg. The Blues were on the all out attack for the entire match, and only produced two shots on frame. I see something similar happening this Sunday in North London.
Prediction: Arsenal Wins 2-0 (+700)
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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