UEFA Champions League Odds: Favored Arsenal Face Favorable Course to Elusive Crown

Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Fri Feb 27, 2026, 6:41 pm ET
Read Time: 7 minutes

UEFA
The first stage of the knockout rounds of this season's UEFA Champions League wrapped up this week, and only 16 teams remain in contention for the most prestigious trophy in club soccer.
Many of the biggest names in the game are still in the mix, including Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, and reigning champions Paris-Saint Germain, each of whom successfully navigated tricky opposition to reach the Round of 16.
In the next round, which will kick off on March 10, Real, Atletico, and PSG will join the likes of Arsenal, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City, who finished in the top eight in the league stage of the competition and secured automatic advancement to the last 16.
Two Thrilling Upsets Shake Up Round of 16 Bracket
But while the Premier League, La Liga, the Bundesliga, and Ligue 1 will all have multiple representatives in the last 16, Italian representation in this season's UEFA Champions League is down to a single team.
Notably, it's the team who had the toughest matchup on paper, Atalanta, who overturned a 2-0 defeat in the first leg with a 4-1 win over Borussia Dortmund in the second leg in Bergamo.
Joining Napoli, who failed to make it out of the league stage, are Inter Milan and Juventus, who were on the wrong end of memorable nights for unfancied opposition.
One of the interlopers is Galatasaray, who upset Juventus to reach the round of 16 for the first time since 2014. Juve made a spirited comeback to force extra time in the second leg at home but were eliminated by goals by Victor Osimhen and Baris Alper Yilmaz.
The other notable entrant is one of the biggest surprises in recent Champions League history. Bodø/Glimt, who only booked a place in the playoffs by producing shock wins against Manchester City and Atletico Madrid to close out the league stage, kept up a stunning stretch by winning both legs against Inter Milan, last season's losing finalists.
With the playoffs now behind us, here are the eight matchups for the round of 16, with each potential quarterfinal paired up:
UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Matchups
| Quarter / Semifinal | Matchup | First Leg | Second Leg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterfinal #1/Semifinal #1 | #11 Paris Saint-Germain vs. #6 Chelsea | Mar 11 | Mar 17 |
| #20 Galatasaray vs. #3 Liverpool | Mar 10 | Mar 18 | |
| Quarterfinal #2/Semifinal #1 | #9 Real Madrid vs. #8 Manchester City | Mar 11 | Mar 17 |
| #15 Atalanta vs. #2 Bayern Munich | Mar 10 | Mar 18 | |
| Quarterfinal #3/Semifinal #2 | #12 Newcastle United vs. #5 Barcelona | Mar 10 | Mar 18 |
| #14 Atletico Madrid vs. #4 Tottenham | Mar 10 | Mar 18 | |
| Quarterfinal #4/Semifinal #2 | #23 Bodø/Glimt vs. #7 Sporting CP | Mar 11 | Mar 17 |
| #16 Bayer Leverkusen vs. #1 Arsenal | Mar 11 | Mar 17 |
With the home stretch of the season on the horizon, a clean sweep of trophies is still in the cards for Arsenal. And the Premier League's top team is also the team to beat in Europe, according to Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks.
Odds to Win the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League
Odds are from Lucky Rebel, which is one of the best UEFA Champions League betting sites.
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability (No Vig) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | +250 | 28.57% | 23.99% |
| Bayern Munich | +550 | 15.38% | 12.92% |
| Barcelona | +650 | 13.33% | 11.20% |
| Manchester City | +800 | 11.11% | 9.33% |
| Paris SG | +900 | 10.00% | 8.40% |
| Liverpool | +1000 | 9.09% | 7.64% |
| Real Madrid | +1200 | 7.69% | 6.46% |
| Atlético Madrid | +1800 | 5.26% | 4.42% |
| Chelsea | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.23% |
| Newcastle United | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.23% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | +3500 | 2.78% | 2.33% |
| Bodø/Glimt | +6000 | 1.64% | 1.38% |
| Sporting CP | +6500 | 1.52% | 1.28% |
| Atalanta BC | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.83% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.83% |
| Galatasaray | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.55% |
Budapest in Plain Sight for Table-Topping Gunners
Only once before in Arsenal's illustrious history has there been a chance to claim European club soccer's most treasured prize. That was in 2006, when the Gunners were a mere 15 minutes away from glory before Barcelona finally broke through and broke hearts in Paris.
Last season, the Gunners came agonizingly close but fell near the final hurdle. After reaching the UEFA Champions League semifinals for the first time since 2009, Mikel Arteta's side came up short against PSG, who won both legs of the tie.
After finishing second in the Premier League in three consecutive seasons, the team looks poised to end a two-decade wait for a league title. But will more than one drought end this season? The stars are certainly aligning, at least on paper.
Odds to Reach the 2026 UEFA Champions League Final
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | +110 | 47.62% | 20.62% |
| Bayern Munich | +220 | 31.25% | 13.54% |
| Barcelona | +250 | 28.57% | 12.37% |
| Manchester City | +325 | 23.53% | 10.19% |
| Paris SG | +375 | 21.05% | 9.12% |
| Liverpool | +450 | 18.18% | 7.87% |
| Real Madrid | +500 | 16.67% | 7.22% |
| Atlético Madrid | +900 | 10.00% | 4.33% |
| Chelsea | +1200 | 7.69% | 3.33% |
| Newcastle United | +1200 | 7.69% | 3.33% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | +1600 | 5.88% | 2.55% |
| Sporting CP | +2500 | 3.85% | 1.67% |
| Bodø/Glimt | +2800 | 3.45% | 1.49% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | +3500 | 2.78% | 1.20% |
| Atalanta BC | +6500 | 1.52% | 0.66% |
| Galatasaray | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.53% |
With how things played out in the league stage, many of the top Champions League contenders landed on the opposite half of the bracket. Now, with round of 16 and quarterfinals matchups that could not have lined up much better, Arsenal's biggest obstacle to a trip to Budapest for the final at Puskas Arena could be a beatable Barcelona side.
As it stands, Arsenal could win four trophies this season, with the Gunners set for an EFL Cup final against Manchester City on March 22 and in the last 16 in the FA Cup (and facing third-tier side Mansfield Town on March 7).
While the quadruple would be a momentous achievement, Premier League and Champions League glory matter far more than the cups. And with how things are unfolding on both fronts, even with some recent dropped points in the league, Arsenal may never get a better opportunity to win both titles in one fell swoop. Will they take advantage of it?
Bet on the UEFA Champions League This Season at Lucky Rebel
It has been an exciting season thus far in the Champions League, and there is so much to look forward to still with the round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, and final to come. Champions League betting is very popular in the United States, and the best U.S.-friendly sports betting sites all carry a variety of Champions League markets.
One site that should be a top option for Champions League bettors this season is Lucky Rebel. As they began operations last summer, this is their first Champions League campaign. However, this sleek new sportsbook has quickly built a robust reputation as it features a vast variety of match (pre-match and live) and futures markets at competitive odds.
Also, they bring a big welcome bonus to the table, along with a generous rewards program through which you can unlock access to reload bonuses, receive special birthday and anniversary bonuses, and earn extra points for being an active player.
If you want to bet on UEFA Champions League odds at Lucky Rebel, new players can receive a 125% bonus up to $1250, as well as 50 free spins to use on select slots at Lucky Rebel's casino, which features hundreds of games from top providers such as Betsoft and Rival Gaming.
Would you like to learn more? Check out our comprehensive Lucky Rebel sportsbook review, which breaks down why this new kid on the block can comfortably rub shoulders with industry stalwarts.
Get UEFA Champions League Picks at Betting News
Throughout this season, Betting News soccer analyst Nate Hornung has provided expert picks for each matchday of the UEFA Champions League. Look for that to continue for the remainder of the competition, all the way through to the final.
Additionally, Betting News offers consensus moneyline, spread (known as goal line or handicap in soccer betting), and total picks for every Champions League match, complete with the best value odds from Lucky Rebel, BetOnline, and other Champions League betting sites.
Between Nate's expert picks and the consensus picks that are aggregated from industry sources, bettors get a complete picture of which games and plays to attack, approach with caution, or avoid.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.
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