The Ottawa Senators are 16-6 on the 1st Period OVER this NHL Season
Many sports and NHL bettors will remember the Chicago Blackhawks legendary run of hitting 1st period OVER bets in 2019. Well, the Ottawa Senators have quietly been on a similar trend so far this season. Through their first twenty-one games, the 1st period OVER has gone 15-6 for a rate of 71.4 percent.
Does this Trend still have Value?
During the Blackhawks run of 1st period OVERs in 2019, sportsbooks began setting the juice at -200 or shorter to try to offset the herd of sports bettors that were looking to take advantage of the anomaly. Sportsbooks have yet to make the same adjustments for this year’s Senators team.
For example, for their February 25th game against the Calgary Flames the odds for their 1st period OVER 1.5 was set at just -128 at FanDuel which is a more than reasonable price for a bet that’s been hitting at a 71.4 percent rate so far this season. The bet hit once again with two goals being scored by the Senators in the 1st period.
This, like many trends, will start to lose its value when either a) the OVERs stop hitting or b) the general public finds out about it. With that being said, this might be a trend you’ll want to hop on sooner rather than later.
Why have we seen so many 1st Period OVERs?
The Ottawa Senators had very little expectations heading into 2021, but their offense has been a nice surprise through the first half of the season as they rank 5th in the NHL in high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes.
What’s been even more important for their high-scoring games is a complete lack of defense or competent goaltending. They rank 24th in opponent high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes while also ranking dead last in the NHL in team save percentage. A solid offense combined with terrible defense and goaltending is an OVER bettors dream.
Not only has their team been a perfect match for OVER bettors but most of their opponents in the North division have similar issues. Six of the seven Canadian teams rank in the bottom half of the league in opponent high danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes including the Canucks and the Jets who take up the bottom two spots in that statistic in the NHL.
The same can be said for Canadian goaltending as only one team in the North division ranks 13th or better in the NHL in save percentage and that’s the Winnipeg Jets who have current Vezina Trophy winner Conor Hellebuyck in between the pipes.
Are there any other NHL 1st Period Totals Trends?
While the Ottawa Senators have been a great bet for 1st period overs, the Dallas Stars have been a great bet on the other end of the spectrum. Despite not playing as many games as the rest of the NHL, the Stars are 11-2 on 1st period UNDERs this season including 8-0 when playing on home ice. Solid goaltending has been key for them this season as they rank 3rd in the NHL in team save percentage.
Other notable 1st period total trends include the Islanders who are 12-6 on the OVER and the Bruins who are 12-4 on the UNDER.
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