NHL Shots on Goal Player Props – Barkov and ZBad

Sweatpants Jesus

We are back baby! The NHL is back in full swing and boy am I excited.

I love watching and betting on hockey and last season I found my favorite market to bet on, maybe in all sports and that is Shots on Goal.

The market really took off near the end of the season and really got big in the playoffs.

Now, with a fresh season ahead of us, let’s have a profitable and fun time finding the advantageous spots of guys putting puck on net.

If you are new to this market, here are a couple of things to keep in mind.

  1. A shot on goal is described as when a player takes a shot that is either saved by the goaltender or is scored.
  2. A shot that is blocked by a defender or another player, hits the post or never reaches the goalie does not count as a SOG.
  3. Always be mindful and pay attention to stat corrections. After the game, sometimes shots are taken away or added depending on how they were deemed during the game. Triple check the stats post game to make sure.

Ok with that being said, lets dive in to the slate of games and find the value!

All Odds available at FanDuel


Aleksander Barkov o3.5 SOGs (-130)

Barkov has been firing. He has been without Matthew Tkachuk for a couple games, yes, so that has helped his numbers.

But even with Takchuk in there, he has been firing away.

He has hit his shots in 9 of his last 11 and 5 of his last 7 with Tkachuk.

This is also about the matchup. The Stars aren’t high in shots allowed, but Barkov loves playing the Stars.

I talked about it this morning on my show MORNING COFFEE. Check that out here and every Thursday!

He has hit his shots in 3 straight matchups with the Stars and in 9 of his last 11 against Dallas.

Recipe for success.

Barkov/Zibanejad Point (+106)

I am going to go light on the SOG market today and pivot to a point parlay.

The SOG market goes through phases, and early in the season there were a lot of lines that were very favorable.

Now that the season is in full swing, the book makers have caught up and are not giving nearly as much value on the lines we saw early in the season.

That paired with the fact that SOG stat correction can be very sketchy and not always accurate, I am going to try for a point parlay today.

I am already playing Barkov for his SOGs, and the same logic applies for the points.

Against the Stars, he has a point in 9 of his last 10 games.

He also has a point in 4 of his last 6. I love Barkov tonight.

Because the point line is juiced to -240, I had to pair that with another guy.

Who better than Mika?

Zibanejad has been great to start the season, and has a great matchup tonight.

He has a point in 8 of his last 9 games.

Also in has last 2 matchups against the Kraken, he has 4 points.

For the plus money value on both of these studs with great matchups, I love it.

That is all I have for today!

Enjoy the NHL slate and be sure to stay tuned all season long for Shot props and much more. Follow me on Twitter @SweatpantsJesus and @BN_Content to stay up to date and let’s have a great NHL season!


HOW TO LADDER SHOTS ON GOAL

If you have never laddered a prop before, here is how I do it and you can adjust to your liking.

I play the original line for 1 unit. So for this example the line is 2.5 SOGs.

I then play the next number up, which in this case, is 4+ SOGs, for a half unit.

Lastly, I go up to 5+ and play that for 0.25 units.

So, it’s:

o2.5 SOGs- the orignal line, for 1 unit.

4+- 0.5 unit

5+- 0.25 unit

Laddering this way allows you to break even with a small profit if the player hits their orignal line.

Then, you ‘climb the ladder.’ The higher up the ladder you go, the more profit you make.

I don’t go any higher than 2 spots above the original line just to make sure I don’t invest too heavily and get screwed by a bad showing.

But by laddering this way, as long as the player hits their original line, you are guaranteed profit.

It’s lower risk higher reward than betting a standard line but you have to choose your spots.

You can apply this to all players and all sports. It is fun to do and if done correctly, you can really cash in on some nice plus money plays.

Sweatpants Jesus
Sweatpants Jesus

Daniel Collins is a sports fanatic and data-driven bettor. He has expertise in the NFL, NHL, and EPL. He’s a big fan of the Titans #titanup, Predators #predators and Arsenal #coyg. If he isn’t watching, betting on or writing about sports, he loves the outdoors, traveling, strong coffee and delicious food. Follow him on Twitter @SweatpantsJesus. Peace and Love

Daniel Collins is a sports fanatic and data-driven bettor. He has expertise in the NFL, NHL, and EPL. He’s a big fan of the Titans #titanup, Predators #predators and Arsenal #coyg. If he isn’t watching, betting on or writing about sports, he loves the outdoors, traveling, strong coffee and delicious food. Follow him on Twitter @SweatpantsJesus. Peace and Love