NHL: Leafs vs. Lightning Picks and Odds | February 25, 2026
Written by: Nick Zanghi
Last Update: Wed Feb 25, 2026, 11:44 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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We are back to a full NHL schedule after the week Winter Olympics break. Tonight, the Toronto Maple Leafs will take on the Tampa Bay Lightning. These two teams last met in December, and the Leafs won 2-0 in this divisional matchup.
Toronto is 27-21-9 this season and seventh in the Atlantic Division. They went into the break on a three-game winning streak where they beat Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver on a west coast trip. The Leafs are 4-5-1 in their last ten games, 11-12-3 on the road and 6-7-3 in divisional matchups.
Players Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Oliver Ekman-Larsson will all return from Olympic play. Matthews comes back with the gold medal as he led Team USA to the gold medal win.
Goalie Jospeh Woll is expected to start. He is 13-7-4 this season with a 2.76 GAA and a .910 save percentage. This will be the first time Woll faces the Lightning this season.
Check out the odds for this matchup and other NHL games at the best online sportsbooks.
Tampa will try to resume cruise control for the rest of the season
Lightning forward Gage Goncalves tries to gain control of the puck in the offensive zone.
The Lightning are 37-14-4 this year and first in the Atlantic Division. They were on a five-game winning streak right before the league went on break. Tampa is 8-1-1- in their last ten games, 18-9-0 at home and 9-3-1 in divisional games.
This team was absolutely buzzing before the break. It's going to be interesting to see if they can pick up where they left off. Victor Hedman and Jake Guentzel are two guys who are back from the Olympics.
Their defense is lock down and so good. They rank second in the league for goals allowed, seventh in shots on goal allowed and fourth in penalty kill. Tampa needs that strong penalty kills as they commit the most penalties per game in the league.
In net, we're expected to see Andrei Vasilevskiy. He is 27-7-3 this season with a 2.11 GAA and a .920 save percentage. Let's check out the odds and get into the Leafs vs. Lightning picks.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Odds and Game Information
Leafs vs. Lightning Betting Odds – February 25
| Team | Puck Line | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +1.5 (-135) | +180 | Over 6.5 (+115) |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -1.5 (+115) | -215 | Under 6.5 (-135) |
Odds courtesy of Lucky Rebel – Get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 Slot Spins when you sign up
Leafs vs. Lightning Game Information
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
- Date: Wednesday February 25, 2026
- Puck Drop: 7:30 p.m. EST
- TV: TNT, TruTV
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Prediction
Leafs forward Matthew Knies has his eyes on the goalie as he enters the offensive zone.
Leafs vs. Lightning Picks and Predictions: Game Total Over 6.5 Goals (+115) Get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 Slot Spins when you sign up with Lucky Rebel
I'm not who shows up here, but I think we see a lot of goals. Both goalies have been off, which makes you think they're rested, but there will be rust to shake off. As long as the Leafs can find the net twice, this should cash.
Vasi is always a problem, but let's see a little vacation hangover. I do think the Lightning win this game comfortably and both teams getting pucks on net. Something tells me the Leafs have a little buzz from their gold medal captain.
Let's start there – I like for Matthews to get 4 or more shots on goal. I'll also be sprinkling his anytime goal. He played such a solid tournament and is now carry a whole new swagger about him.
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Nick Zanghi
Nick Zanghi is an avid hockey fan who loves to bet on the NHL Props. He has also found a liking for the WNBA. Born and raised on LI, NZ is a lifelong Islanders #isles fan and a new NY Liberty fan #LIGHTITUPNYL. When not watching or attending sporting events, he enjoys grilling and time with his wife and kids.
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