Conn Smythe Trophy 2023: Prediction and Odds

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Last Updated:

Read Time: 3 minutes

Conn Smythe Trophy 2023: Prediction and Odds cover


With the Stanley Cup Finals starting on Saturday, it’s time once again to talk about the Conn Smythe Trophy! We’ve got our prediction and odds for who might be this year’s winner!

Let’s talk about who might take home some hardware!

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Conn Smythe Trophy Odds

The Conn Smythe Trophy honors the Most Valuable Player of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Last year, the award was given to Avalanche Defensemen, Cale Makar.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of BetOnline.

50% up to $1,000

Top Five

  • Sergei Bobrovsky (+200)
  • Matthew Tkachuk (+360)
  • Jack Eichel (+400)
  • Jonathan Marchessault (+650)
  • William Karlsson (+700)

Next Five

  • Adin Hill (+1000)
  • Mark Stone (+1200)
  • Chandler Stephenson (+7500)
  • Aleksander Barkov (+12000)
  • Alex Pietrangelo (+12000)

Conn Smythe Trophy Prediction

From a betting perspective, this one is a little tougher. If you think the Panthers will win, the overall favorite is goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and that’s no surprise. He’s been playing out of his mind this campaign and has been a huge part of Florida’s run.

However, the next betting favorite is also on the Florida Panthers.

New signing Matthew Tkachuk is the next man up and for good reason. He scored the game winning goal in overtime of Games 1 and 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. He scored in 3/4 games against the Canes and had at least a point in each one. He’s added incredible value to this Panthers’ attack.

But, if you side with the Knights, it gets a little difficult.

The two obvious choices are Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault. These two have been the clear focal points of the Knights offense. Marchessault has a point in 10/17 playoff games, including 7 points in his L5 games.

Eichel has a point in 11/17 playoff games, with three 3 point games. He was quiet last series against the Stars, so it will be interesting to see if he breaks out on the big stage.

Conn Smythe Best Bet

I see the trophy staying within the top four betting favorites unless something crazy happens.

My pick if the Panthers win would be Matthew Tkachuk. I think we see some Bobrovksy regression and (hopefully) lots of offense this series. I think Tkachuk will be forced to overshadow Bobrovksy if the Panthers have a chance at lifting the Stanley Cup.

However, I do think the Knights win in seven games.

My Pick: Jonathan Marchessault (+650)

Although Eichel is the the “big name” player on this team, Marchessault is right behind him. Marchessault was nearly nonexistent in the first round, posting just two assists in 5 games. He was even held pointless in the first two games at home against the Oilers, but then he turned it up a notch.

In his last 10 games, Marchessault has a point in 8/10 games, including 5 multi-point performances. He has goals in 6 of those 10 games including a hat trick to end Edmonton’s season on the road.

He had 7 points in 6 games against the Stars, all coming in the last five. The man has been on a tear, and I think he leads this Vegas Golden Knights’ team to a Stanley Cup Victory.

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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