Titans vs. Commanders Prediction & Best Bets (NFL Week 5)

Sweatpants Jesus

Derrick Henry and The Tennessee Titans (2-2) travel in week five to our Nation’s Capitol to take on Carson Wentz and Washington Commanders (1-3).

The Titans are coming off of a big divisional win on the road in Indianapolis as they bettered the Colts 24-17. The Commanders fell to the Cowboys in Dallas 25-10 as they have now lost three games in a row after winning their season opener against the Jaguars.

This should be an interesting matchup of two cross-conference teams that don’t meet very often. This is only their 7th meeting and the series is tied 3-3.

Their last matchup was four year ago in 2018. Four years ago, The Commanders had a different name, Adrian Peterson was their starting running back and COVID wasn’t a thing. A lot can change in four years and in life, change is one of the only constants. The NFL is no different.

With how the NFL does their scheduling these days, its fairly rare to find two teams that haven’t matched up this often. It will be very interesting to see how both of these teams prepare for each other, with such a small sample size to work with.

Both teams will be watching a lot of tape, maybe a bit more than usual, to prepare for formations that they aren’t necessarily used to seeing across the line of scrimmage.

The Titans will have a slight edge in that they will face off with Carson Wentz, who they know very well from his brief stint in Indianapolis last season. The Titans got the better of Wentz in both matchups, winning both games.

Wentz, however, did have fairly good statistical games against the Titans and, with how beat up the Titans are in their secondary, I could see Wentz having success throwing the ball.

Commanders Prop: Wentz over Passing Yards

My first play in this game is Wentz to go over his passing yards. The line hasn’t been released as of this writing but given the matchup, it’s one of my favorite looks in this game.

The past three games, the Titans have allowed over 300 yards passing in all three games. Granted, it was by Josh Allen (317), Derek Carr (303), and Matt Ryan (356), who I rank higher than Wentz in most QB categories. Carson isn’t a world beater by any stretch but he isn’t abysmal and he has decent weapons to throw to.

The pass defense for the Titans is also a glaring weakness. With the possibility of safety Amani Hooker missing another week in the concussion protocol and OLB Bud Dupree looking unlikely to play as well with a hip problem, I don’t see that drastically improving this week.

With that in mind, the Titans will possibly deploy a similar defensive strategy they played against the Colts. Stop the run, at all costs, and make the opposing QB beat you.

Bend, don’t break.

Now, I know they don’t rank Antonio Gibson the same as they do Jonathan Taylor, but its more about the QBs and their comparable traits.

It worked in Indy, albeit it was closer than it really should have been, but I believe the Titans have seen Wentz enough to not be scared of him.

They will give him dump downs and intermediate throws all day, just as they did with Matt Ryan, which he should be able to complete and get his yards with ease.

Titans Prop: Henry over Rushing Yards

On the other side of the ball for the Titans, it is starting to look like the King has returned.

Many people thought that Derrick Henry might not be able to return to his dominant self after his Lisfranc injury last year but he seems to have put the injury behind him.

He definitely looked rusty out the gate the first couple of weeks. The last 2 games, however, he has looked fast, agile, and like the Derrick Henry we all are used to seeing stiff-arm defenders into another galaxy.

His rushing line has been set fairly low the past two weeks in the mid 70s to low 80s, which does sort of make sense, but he has crushed both of those lines. (I know that because I took them both times and they hit 😉 )

Look for Henry to be the focal point of the Titans offense yet again, get 25+ touches, and probably eclipse 100 yards on the ground. I could even see him busting a big one for 60+ to the house. The King is Back!

Prediction: Back the Road Favorites

While I do think the Commanders will have a bit more of a sense of urgency to win this game, as they desperately don’t want to drop to 1-4, the Titans offense has slowly started to look more explosive and that all starts with Henry and the run game.

As we have seen in years past and in flashes so far this season, when the Titans dominate on the ground, they are very tough to handle. If they control the game on the ground and in the trenches, they should get out of DC with a victory.

I am taking the points here, as I think the Titans could win this by a touchdown or more.

Favorite Bet: Titans -2.5 (-115) on FanDuel

Follow me on Twitter @SwetapantsJesus for more plays as the week progresses and @BN_Content for more pieces and my thoughts. Peace and Love

Sweatpants Jesus
Sweatpants Jesus

Daniel Collins is a sports fanatic and data-driven bettor. He has expertise in the NFL, NHL, and EPL. He’s a big fan of the Titans #titanup, Predators #predators and Arsenal #coyg. If he isn’t watching, betting on or writing about sports, he loves the outdoors, traveling, strong coffee and delicious food. Follow him on Twitter @SweatpantsJesus. Peace and Love

Daniel Collins is a sports fanatic and data-driven bettor. He has expertise in the NFL, NHL, and EPL. He’s a big fan of the Titans #titanup, Predators #predators and Arsenal #coyg. If he isn’t watching, betting on or writing about sports, he loves the outdoors, traveling, strong coffee and delicious food. Follow him on Twitter @SweatpantsJesus. Peace and Love