Super Bowl Player Prop Bets

Ryan K

While a lot of the betting focus for the Super Bowl is on the game itself, it can almost be equally as entertaining to partake in some of the prop bets that are available. 

Almost anything can be bet on, from the color of the Gatorade that will be dumped on the winning coach at the end of the game to whether the coin flip will be heads or tails. 

Despite some of these fun prop bets, player prop bets are another avenue bettors can take, as they can bet on some of their favorite players and how they will perform in the big game. 

Before getting started, I think it is important to establish a sense of perspective. I currently like the Kansas City Chiefs at -1. In the AFC Championship Game, they certainly showed the ability to take care of a run-first team, and I expect more of the same on Sunday. 

I certainly think that the 49ers’ defense will give Kansas City a tough time, but I ultimately think the Chiefs have too many weapons on the offensive side to be held down for an entire game. 

With that in mind, let’s take a look at seven of my favorite player prop bets heading into Super Bowl LIV:

Quarterback Props

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards: Over 305.5 (-150)

For the season, the Kansas City Chiefs ranked fourth in the league in terms of passing yards per game. They averaged 283.7 per game and that is keeping in mind that Patrick Mahomes sat out for a few games with a knee injury. 

In his career, Mahomes has averaged 303.6 yards per game, and in the biggest night of his career thus far, I would expect him to rise to the challenge and exceed the 305.5-yard mark.

Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Touchdowns: Under 1.5 TDs (+110)

On the season, the San Francisco 49ers heavily relied on their defense and their ground game to dominate opponents. While Jimmy Garoppolo has been able to get it done with his arm occasionally (he threw for four touchdowns three times this year), he hasn’t done it lately. 

In fact, in his last five games, his touchdowns per game have gone: 1, 1, 0, 1, 0. The 49ers just don’t want to have to put the pressure on Garoppolo, and if they do, they could be in trouble. 

Garoppolo could pull out the anomaly and throw for multiple touchdowns, but I think the safe bet is the under of 1.5 touchdowns

Who Will Throw More Touchdown Passes In The Game? Patrick Mahomes -0.5 (-180)

This is one I feel pretty confident in. As I have mentioned earlier, the 49ers will be in trouble if they have to rely on Garoppolo’s arm. If they are, it probably means they are working from a deficit and have had to abandon the run game. 

On the flip side, the Chiefs use Damien Williams as a way of keeping the defense honest, but they would love to let Mahomes use his multitude of weapons. Throw in a big red-zone target like Travis Kelce (not that George Kittle is bad himself), and I think this one goes to Mahomes easily.

Receiving Props

George Kittle Receiving Yards: Over 70.5 Yards (-135)

The last two weeks have been a bit concerning for Kittle fans as he has had just 16 yards and 19 yards receiving, respectively, over those outings. Still, Kittle is someone who exceeded 70.5 yards seven times this season, and in a game that I expect the 49ers to be trailing in, Kittle is Garoppolo’s security blanket.

I expect an increase in targets in this one. This one is a bit more of a stretch, but I like Kittle over the 70.5 yards.

Damien Williams Receiving Yards: Over 30.5 (-113)

In the last three games, Williams has seen at least six targets in each of those games. In terms of yardage, he went for 30, 21 and 44 yards. 

While those numbers aren’t necessarily the most inspiring to hit his goal, I take into account the defense in this one. San Francisco is the best team in the league defending the pass, allowing just 173.8 yards per game. 

Still, that is not going to stop Andy Reid and Mahomes from throwing the ball, and to open up the vertical game, I could see several screens and check-downs early in the game. 

As such, if Williams can get to that six to eight target range, I think he has a good chance of surpassing the 30.5 yards receiving in this one.

Rushing Props

Raheem Mostert Total Rushing Yards: Over 69.5 Yards (-150)

This one also seems like a bit of a lock to me. Tevin Coleman is still questionable for this one, which would indicate that Mostert is going to get the lion’s share of the work

Throw on top of that the fact that Kansas City ranked 25th in the NFL against the run, allowing 123.9 rushing yards per game, and Mostert could be in for a big game. 

Granted, the Chiefs did just shut down Derrick Henry in the AFC Championship Game, and Mostert won’t rush for over 200 yards again as he did against the Packers, but I do think he eclipses the 70-yard plateau.

Kicking Props 

Total Kicking Points – Harrison Butker: Over 7.5 Points (-135)

I am also a big fan of Harrison Butker in this one. While the Chiefs’ offense is dynamic, and I do think they will find paydirt against the 49ers, I also think that San Francisco won’t allow them to score touchdowns at will every possession. 

With a bend, not break mentality, this may lead to Butker (the NFL’s leading scorer) needing to do his thing. I expect at least a couple of field goals and a couple of extra points, which is all he needs to cover the over in this one.

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