NFL QB Futures Odds: Week 1 Starters & Next Team Markets
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Sun Mar 08, 2026, 7:36 pm ET
Read Time: 10 minutes
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The NFL offseason always brings speculation surrounding quarterback movement. With multiple teams facing uncertainty under center, futures markets have begun to take shape for potential Week 1 starters and next-team landing spots.
Below, we'll take a look at the latest NFL QB futures odds.
For additional NFL content and analysis, be sure to check out my rankings of the Best NFL Coaching Hires of the 2026 Offseason, my early 2027 NFL MVP Picks and early 2027 Super Bowl Odds and Bets
NFL Week 1 Starting QB Odds
Odds via BetOnline
Browns Starting QB in Week 1 Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | +300 |
| Deshaun Watson | +350 |
| Kyler Murray | +500 |
| Dillon Gabriel | +600 |
| Any Rookie QB | +600 |
| Joe Flacco | +800 |
It seems like year after year we're having the same conversation about who should be the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns – and heading into this upcoming season, that storyline is no different.
With a new head coach in Todd Monken, a former offensive coordinator, the QB1 job is wide open.
Last season, veteran quarterback Joe Flacco started the first four games for Cleveland, before they turned to rookie southpaw Dillon Gabriel for six starts. From there, another rookie, Shedeur Sanders, handled the final seven games of the year.
Neither Gabriel nor Sanders played well enough to fully cement themselves as the long-term answer, though the general sentiment is that Sanders flashed a bit more upside. That was evident in the results as well, with Sanders picking up three wins as a starter compared to just one for Gabriel.
The growing belief is that the competition could come down to Sanders and Deshaun Watson, with Gabriel not being factored into the starting discussion nearly as much this offseason.
Watson, now 30 years old, is expected to return after suffering an achilles injury that sidelined him for the entire 2025 season. His time in Cleveland has been riddled with absences, as he's already missed 19 games since signing one of the most expensive and idiotic contracts in franchise history – a deal that was widely criticized at the time given the circumstances surrounding his suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy regarding sexual assault.
The Browns' front office has also hinted at the possibility of bringing in outside competition, whether through the draft, free agency or via trade. I'm not particularly convinced they'll go that route, but Cleveland has never been shy about making unpredictable decisions.
Ultimately, this isn't a market I'm eager to bet. If I had to take a stab at it, though, the +300 price on Sanders would be the direction I'd lean.
Watson wasn't playing well enough before his injury to guarantee he'll immediately reclaim the job, and Monken may prefer to see what he has in the younger arm.
And if the season goes sideways, so be it. None of these quarterbacks are Monken's guy, and a rough year could easily position the Browns for a top draft pick and a chance to find their next franchise quarterback who he can develop into his own system.
Cardinals Starting QB in Week 1 Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Malik Willis | +200 |
| Jacoby Brissett | +250 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +500 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +700 |
| Tanner McKee | +800 |
| Mac Jones | +1000 |
What we do know about the Arizona Cardinals' quarterback situation is that their former franchise QB, Kyler Murray, is officially gone. The team informed the 28-year-old former No. 1 overall pick that he would be released.
To everyone that supported me and showed kindness to my family and I during my time in AZ, from the bottom of my heart, thank you.
I wanted nothing more than to be the one to end the 77 year drought for this organization, I am sorry I failed us. I wish this community and my…
— Kyler Murray (@K1) March 3, 2026
This move wasn't entirely surprising given his inability to stay healthy and his underwhelming play over the past few seasons.
Plus, Arizona has a new head coach in Mike LaFleur coming to town, so he'll likely want his own quarterback to work with.
Jacoby Brissett, a career backup turned Cardinals starter last season, is the second-favorite to land the Week 1 job, according to BetOnline's odds. Malik Willis is the current frontrunner after showcasing himself effectively when he stepped in for the injured Jordan Love this past season.
In a two-game sample with the Packers, Willis completed 27 of 32 passes for 409 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He also scrambled 19 times for 104 yards and two rushing scores.
There's no question Willis can be a serviceable backup, but the sudden infatuation with handing him a full-time starting role after just two games, both of which the Packers lost, feels a bit overzealous.
Regardless, it doesn't matter what I think – it matters what front offices think. And honestly, it's difficult to gauge which direction the Cardinals might lean.
Arizona also holds the No. 3 overall pick in this year's draft, though this is widely considered one of the weakest quarterback classes in quite some time.
There are simply too many directions the Cardinals could go, which makes placing a wager on this market feel irresponsible. I can't confidently pinpoint which path they'll take. They could move on from Brissett while his value appears to be at one of the higher points of his career, keep him as the starter out of the gate, or bring in a new option through free agency or the draft and keep Brissett around to help mold the younger quarterback until he's comfortable.
If you've got a better hunch than I do, please let me know, otherwise I'm staying out of the way.
Dolphins Starting QB in Week 1 Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Quinn Ewers | +300 |
| Malik Willis | +350 |
| Kyler Murray | +450 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +600 |
| Tanner McKee | +800 |
| Mac Jones | +900 |
Let's move on down to South Beach, where I do see value in this betting market. I like the look of Quinn Ewers at +300 to be the Week 1 starter for the Miami Dolphins.
Miami's organization is in a complete reset right now. They let wide receiver Tyreek Hill and linebacker Bradley Chubb go to free up cap space.
They're far from contenders, and given they still have Ewers and Tua Tagovailoa, there's little reason to make any major moves in a season where expectations are low and the incoming quarterback draft class is weak.
If anything, they should be looking to move on from Tua, though I'm not sure which team would be eager to bring him onto their roster.
Tagovailoa has not only shown an inability to stay healthy, but a lack of arm strength and precision as well.
There's a reason rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers took over the starting duties for the final three weeks of the season. And all things considered, he wasn't that bad. Ewers dealt with a mediocre supporting cast on offense and an awful defense behind him. He completed 66% of his passes on 83 attempts for 622 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. His most impressive outing came in a 20-17 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he threw two touchdowns.
I'm not saying Ewers is the long-term solution, but with a new coach in Jeff Hafley coming in, Miami might as well see what it has in the young quarterback during his second season — especially if he knows he'll be the starter out of the gate.
If he plays well, great – you can either build around him or keep him as a capable backup while continuing to search for your next answer at quarterback. If he struggles, no harm, no foul. The result would likely be the same if Tua were under center. At least with Ewers, there's still a small glimmer of upside, whereas with Tua you already know what you're getting, and there's little reason to return to a quarterback who already lost the job.
NFL Next Team Odds
Odds via BetOnline
Tua Tagovailoa Next Team Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| New York Jets | +175 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +200 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +500 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +700 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +800 |
| Green Bay Packers | +1000 |
Speaking of Tua Tagovailoa, odds are also being offered on which team he'll land with next. Again, I don't think many teams are itching to snag a below-average arm, so I don't have a strong hunch one way or the other. This isn't a market I'm interested in, nor do I think there's that strong of a chance he'll be dealt either.
Kirk Cousins Next Team Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | +300 |
| New York Jets | +400 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +500 |
| Miami Dolphins | +600 |
| Detroit Lions | +800 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1200 |
Finally, there's 37-year-old Kirk Cousins, who is expected to be released by the Atlanta Falcons on the first day of the new league year.
Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million deal with the Falcons in the same year they drafted Michael Penix Jr.
It was a puzzling decision then, and with a new staff and front office entering the mix in Atlanta, they're now trying to pick up the pieces and make sense of the situation.
Rumors keep swirling about a reunion between Cousins and his former team in Minnesota, which is why the Vikings are the short shots at +300. I don't think that's a viable option, though – both from their perspective and from a betting standpoint.
Minnesota has plenty of offensive talent, a top-tier defense and a great coaching staff. They are a strong quarterback away from being playoff contenders again.
Selecting J.J. McCarthy was never going to pan out. I never understood the pick when it was made and still can't make sense of why teams like Minnesota were so high on him.
I could go on a whole rant about why that selection was absurd, but I digress.
The Vikings fired general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah on January 30, 2026, after four seasons with the team. It was a bit of a shocker, but I suppose someone had to pay the price for that awful draft choice.
The good news for Minnesota is that they don't have to live with that mistake any longer. They can easily move on from J.J. McCarthy and bring in a better option under center.
But is Cousins the answer? He shouldn't be. Sure, Cousins is serviceable and is a familiar face within the organization, but you know exactly what you're getting with him – and that's not a great thing. The goal should be to win the Super Bowl, not remain stuck in a state of purgatory, which is what they'll get if Cousins returns under center.
He's solid and will get star players like Justin Jefferson the ball, but he's not going to win you a playoff game. His ceiling is reaching the postseason, and that's assuming the 37-year-old, completely immobile quarterback can stay healthy.
A player like Kyler Murray would raise the ceiling far more for Minnesota, and that's the route I believe they'll pursue.
Would it be shocking if Murray didn't improve things in Minnesota? No, of course not. But the potential upside is significantly higher with him than it is with Cousins. They would be knowingly settling with Cousins, whereas Murray offers a much higher ceiling as a younger, mobile quarterback entering a competent system with star weapons.
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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