Sunday Night Football, Dolphins vs Eagles, Prediction: College Teammates Square Off
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Sun Oct 22, 2023, 10:01 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Sunday Night Football is back with a great matchup tonight. In what could be a Super Bowl Preview, the Philadelphia Eagles host the Miami Dolphins at Lincoln Financial Field!
Two contenders and former college teammates go head to head in this one as Jalen Hurts tries to take down the man who took his starting job at Alabama, Mr. Tua Tagovailoa.
Let's breakdown this primetime contest!
Dolphins vs Eagles Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, PA)
- Date: Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
- Kick Off: 8:20pm Eastern
- Broadcast: NBC
Betting Odds
Spread
- Dolphins +3 (-120)
- Eagles -3 (+100)
Moneyline
- Dolphins +130
- Eagles -150
Total
- Over 52 (-105)
- Under 52 (-115)
Free NFL Picks: Dolphins vs Eagles
Can Jalen Hurts and the Eagles bounce back tonight?
This is going to be a hell of a game, and truth be told, I sort of just want to kick my feet up and enjoy this one, especially considering my Chiefs play both of these teams next month.
However, we did find some player prop nuggets I will get in to in a bit.
This is a huge get right game for the Eagles. Coming off a bad loss to the Jets after only scoring 14 points, the offense will need to click against the Dolphins defense.
Miami allowed 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground, and I think the Eagles will look to exploit that. This will chew up plenty of clock, leaving as little time as possible for the electric Dolphin offense to put up points.
The Eagles secondary is extra susceptible in this game given the speed of the Miami receivers, however they have one less weapon to worry about as Achane is still injured.
Nevertheless, you have to find a way to slow down this Miami offense, or out score them, and truth be told, I don't think the Eagles could keep up in a shootout.
I think we see a defensive game from the Eagles, holding the ball and pounding the ground on offense, while Miami looks for the deep balls on their side.
No side or total in this one from me, but I've got a couple props!
Best NFL Prop Bets: SNF Player Props
Tua Tagovailoa over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-127) Bovada
Can Tua and company pull off the upset?
I think Tua is going to be slinging the rock tonight.
This is a number that he's only cleared once this season, it was back in Week 1 @ LAC. He's had 30+ attempts in 5/6 games this season, and had 35 exactly @ BUF.
Let's just keep it simple and talk numbers.
Tua throws more on the road, 36.7 PA in 3 road starts, 29 PA in 3 home starts.
He hasn't cleared this number much because he hasn't had to throw the ball. Tonight on the road in Philly, Miami will be forced to air it out if they want to be successful.
This Eagles defense ranks 2nd in Opponent Rushing Yards per game, allowing just 65.8. The secondary is where it gets dicey. Philly's D ranks 20th in Opponent Passing Yards per game, allowing 232 through the air.
Philly's D allowed the 29th most Pass Attempts and Passing TDs per game, letting QBs throw 39 times for 1.83 TDs a game.
Especially with Achane still injured, the Dolphins will utilize Mostert from out of the back field as a pass catcher opposed to a ball carrier, leading us to our next prop.
Raheem Mostert over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115) BetOnline
Mostert will be RB1 for several weeks with Achane on the IR
Like I said, I think Miami abandons the run and airs it out, but they will still utilize their best running back.
Mostert has seen at least 1 target in every game this season, and has caught a pass in every game as well. He's cleared 16+ Receiving Yards in 3/6 games, posting 13 yards on 2 separate occasions as well.
After seeing just 3 total targets in the 1st two weeks, Mostert averages 4.25 targets per game the last four weeks. Plus, he's made the most of them.
On 20 total targets this season, Mostert has caught 18 passes. Additionally, he's caught as many as 7 passes in a game this season and averages 27.2 YAC in six games.
Now, about this Philly Defense defending running backs out of the back field.
- @ NYJ: 5 receptions for 54 yards, 25+ yard reception
- @ TB: 3 receptions for 24 yards, 16+ yard reception
- vs MIN: 3 receptions for 11 yards, 16+ yard reception
- @ NE: 6 receptions for 64 yards, 32+ yard reception
Feed me Mostert to clear this line on one screen or check down after breaking a tackle.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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