Saints vs. Falcons | NFL Week 18 Breakdown & Best Bets: Savior or Spoiler?
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Sat Jan 03, 2026, 8:15 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
nfl
If I told you in Week 1 that the Saints/Falcons matchup in Week 18 would have playoff implications, you'd never believe me. Now if I told you this same game could decide the winner of the division, despite both teams missing the playoffs; you'd probably ask me to leave. Yet, here we are; this very matchup could decide who wins the NFC South. Let's jump into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Mercedez-Benz Stadium; Atlanta, Georgia
- Date: Sunday, January 4th, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough (2024 – N/A)
- Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins (7-7; 2024 – 250.6 YPG | 18 TD | 16 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
The Messy South
The NFC South this year has been…messy.
The Panthers currently lead the way with a 8-8 record and despite the Falcons currently sitting 2nd in the division, they've officially been eliminated from the playoffs. That's because the Falcons lost both their games to the Panthers this year, so theoretically even if the Panthers lost and Falcons won; both teams would be sitting at 8-9 and the tiebreaker goes to Carolina.
The Panthers would then move up to 1st in the division because the Falcons hold the tiebreaker over the Buccaneers. That's why if the Falcons win on Sunday, regardless of what happens on Saturday; the Panthers will make the playoffs. If the Buccaneers lose on Saturday, this game becomes meaningless and the Panthers will lock up top spot in the NFC South.
The Falcons have won three games in row, all with Kirk Cousins under center and against some pretty good opponents. The team's got wins against the Buccaneers, Cardinals and Rams; averaging 27.3. points per game and 3.3 touchdowns per game. This week they face a Saints team that's won four games in a row and looking to cap the season on a high note.
If the Buccaneers win on Saturday, this game decides the fate of the NFC South. Both teams are set to miss the playoffs and the outcome of this game could potentially decide the fate of two other teams.
Like I said, it's messy.
Shough It
The Saints have won four games in a row for the first time since 2020 and it's something that hasn't happened since Drew Brees was the one taking the snaps. Tyler Shough's now recorded five wins in his rookie year and he's done it despite starting just eight total games. Shough's 5-3 as a starter for the Sains and no matter what happens this week, he'll be the first Saints QB to finish the year with a winning record since Drew Brees.
Shough's throwing for an average of 249.6 pass yards per game in these eight starts. He's completing 69.6% of his passes and he's thrown 9 touchdowns passes and four interceptions. Over the last eight weeks, Shough's 6th in pass yards per game, 7th in passer rating, 2nd in completion rate, 2nd in completion rate over expectation and 4th in catchable throw rate. He's been fantastic and I think Saints fans have every reason to be excited.
Shough's also been sacked at a top three rate in those last eight weeks and this week the Saints face a Falcons team that ranks 2nd in sacks this year. The rook's struggled against pressure this year, grading in the bottom 10 of all qualified QBs against pressure. The Falcons can play spoiler this year and help keep the Buccaneers at home during the postseason, or the Saints can play spoiler and keep the Panthers home for one more year.
This game's going to be fun.
Sunday's Best Bets
Kyle Pitts o49.5 Receiving Yards (-111) | Lucky Rebel
Pitts has just been Kirk's favorite target this year and his 24.9% target share is clear evidence to that fact. Last week's game against the Rams was an anomaly. Cousins threw just 20 pass attempts because Bijan Robinson was torching them on the ground and the Rams pass rush made it very uncomfortable for Kirk.
This week the Falcons play a Saints team that ranks bottom 10 in pressure rate, 28th in QB hits and 9th in sacks. Last week we saw Cam Ward throw for 251 yards, 2 touchdowns and I'm expecting something similar from Kirk.
Priot to last week, Pitts was seeing a 26.1% target share; leading the team in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns with Kirk as the starter. Pitts is averaging 2.43 yards per route run against zone over the last few weeks and that's something we've seen the Saints run at a top 10 rate this year.
The Saints are also running a ton of single-hi coverages and that's something we know Kirk's looked great against. Kirk is also just three touchdowns shy of 300 career passing touchdowns and with next year being very much up in the air, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a little aggressive this week. Look for Pitts to play a big role this week if that's the case.
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