Rams vs. Falcons | NFL Week 17 Breakdown & Best Bets: Monday Night Football
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Mon Dec 29, 2025, 3:10 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The Rams head to Atlanta this week looking for a win and hoping to solidify Matthew Stafford's MVP Campaign. The Falcons are looking to end the year on a positive and will look to play spoiler this week in front of their home crowd.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Mercedez-Benz Stadium; Atlanta, Georgia
- Date: Monday, December 29th, 2025
- Kickoff: 6:15 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Los Angeles Rams: Matt Stafford (10-6; 2024 – 235.1 YPG | 20 TD | 8 INT)
- Atlanta Falcons: Kirk Cousins (7-7; 2024 – 250.6 YPG | 18 TD | 16 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
ATLiens
The Falcons entered the year with a ton of promise and a lot of hype surrounding the team. Michael Penix looked like he'd be the guy moving forward, Drake London was ready to take another step and hope for a Kyle Pitts breakout season was at an all time high.
Now a few things did go as planned; Penix is the guy, London is him and Pitts still possesses all the talent he had at Florida. The problem is all of this didn't translate into a winning season. Even before Penix went down in Week 11, the Falcons had won just three games and the offensive inconsistencies were too much to overcome.
The Falcons offense ranks 25th in points, 30th in third down conversion rate, 18th in pass yards and 8th in rush yards. Outside of their run game and redzone efficiency (7th) they haven't really done much. The team's full of weapons but they just haven't come together for big games and have show a tendency to go missing at the most random times.
Defensively the Falcons ranked 20th in points allowed but had the 12th best redzone defense. They rank 26th in rush yards allowed but 10th in pass yards allowed and the defense is 2nd in sacks. The team's done a great job to develop this pass rush and we've seen through the year. The team ranks 12th in opponent yards per play and have done a great job of limiting big time plays.
Most Valuable Gun Slinger
Matt Stafford's still the favorite to win this year's Most Valuable Player Award, despite the Rams not winning their division. After a brutal loss last week, the Rams come into this one out of the running for the NFC West and just looking to solidify their standing in the NFC.
Stafford's 1st in passing touchdowns, 2nd in pass yards per game, 5th in yards per attempt and 2nd in passer rating. He's thrown 40 touchdowns, 5 interceptions and has a completion rate of 65.7%. At the age of 37, Matt Stafford might be the best QB in the NFL currently and it's why the Rams are sitting pretty with 11 wins.
The defense for Los Angeles has been elite. The team ranks 7th in points allowed, 3rd in opponent redzone efficiency, 8th in touchdowns allowed and 11th in opponent rushing yards. The team's been a little vulnerable through the air but some of that's because of how often the Rams' opponents are playing from behind.
The defense ranks 9th in sacks, 5th in QB hits and top 10 in pressure rate. Los Angeles has won 8 of their last 10 games and look to keep it rolling this week in Atlanta.
Monday Night's Best Bets
Matthew Stafford 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+145) | Lucky Rebel
With everything I just said about Matthew Stafford, how could I not bet him. Stafford's cleared this line in 6 of his last 9 games and this week's matchup could be his last chance at bolstering that MVP case. Stafford's a two time Pro Bowler, one time Super Bowl Champ and when you look back his resume it might not be as stacked as you'd think.
This year's easily been one of his best and if it's going to be his last game of the regular season I'm expecting him to cap it off with a bang. The Falcons defense has been good but they've given up 7 touchdowns through the air over the last four weeks and allowed Sam Darnold to throw 3 just two weeks ago.
The Falcons defense has been slowly coming apart and they've had a tough time against good opposing offensive lines. Stafford's bottom two in sack rate and the team's done a phenomenal job of protecting him in the pocket. The Rams are 1st in points, 5th in redzone efficiency and it's all because of this man, Matt Stafford. Look for more of the same this week.
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