NFL Saturday Preview & Best Bets: December 16th, 2023
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Sat Dec 16, 2023, 8:49 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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The National Football League blessed us with three games on Saturday, so let's take a look at all three matchups and find our best bets in each game!
Due to injuries and players getting benched, these games will feature several backups, including two in our first game on the slate.
We get Nick Mullens leading the Vikings against Jake Browning and the Bengals.
Mitch Trubisky as the Steelers take on Gardner Minshew and the Colts.
And finally Russell Wilson and Jared Goff as the Lions host the Broncos.
Even with these matchups, we can't complain about Saturday Football as the season comes to a close.
I've got a player prop in each of these games, and player props have been our saving grace.
- NFL Player Props
- 29-32 +3.15 units
Let's get into it!
NFL Saturday Preview
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)
- Date: Saturday, December 16th, 2023
- Kick Off: 1:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: NFL Network
Betting Odds
- Vikings +3 (+100)
- Bengals -3 (-120)
- Over/Under 40.5
The Pick: Joe Mixon Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Get the Best Odds at Bovada
This line is far too low for me, and if it's a trap, I'll happily take it.
Mixon has cleared this line in 5 of his L6 games, including 4 straight, posting 30+ yards in each contest. The Vikings also struggle against RBs in the passing game, as they've let some elite receiving backs go off against them.
- Roschon Johnson: 5 catches on 5 targets for 40 yards
- Alvin Kamara: 7 catches on 7 targets for 33 yards
- AJ Dillon: 5 catches on 5 targets for 41 yards
- CMC: 3 catches on 3 targets for 51 yards, TD
Mixon has been putting up numbers since Burrow's injury. With Jake Browning at QB, Mixon has caught 11 of 13 targets in 3 games, posting 40+ receiving yards in every single game.
I know this seems too good to be true, but I'll fall for the trap. Mixon could get this in one catch, which he has done the past 3 games, catching a ball for 28+ yards in 3 straight.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
- Date: Saturday, December 16th, 2023
- Kick Off: 4:30pm Eastern
- Broadcast: NFL Network
Betting Odds
- Steelers +1.5 (-110)
- Colts -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under 42
The Pick: Michael Pittman Over 7.5 Receptions (+120) Get These Odds at Bovada
Look, I am hopping on this train and riding it until it crashes. This guy has been on a tear andf I'll gladly bet on him to get this number at plus money.
He's had 8+ catches in 10/13 games this season, 7 of his L8, and in six straight games. He's averaging 10.6 targets on the season and has seen double digit targets in 5 of his L6 games.
Over his L8 games, he's averaging 8 receptions on 11.5 targets, and 9 catches on 12 targets in his L5.
Pittsburgh's secondary is 21st in Passing Yards allowed, and Pittman has developed fantastic chemistry with Gardner Minshew. I'll gladly bet on him to have a big game, expecting a minimum of 12 targets for the kid.
Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Ford Field (Detroit, MI)
- Date: Saturday, December 16th, 2023
- Kick Off: 8:15pm Eastern
- Broadcast: NFL Network
Betting Odds
- Broncos +4.5 (-105)
- Lions -4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under 48
The Pick: Sam Laporta Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-120) Get These Odds at Bovada
This could be viewed as another square play, but 48 receiving yards for the young TE is criminal. I'm paying the -120 juice and taking it straight to the bank Saturday Night.
Let's talk about the stud first.
Laporta has cleared 48+ Receiving Yards in 6/13 games this season, but he has had 47 exactly on two separate occasions. He's seen 6+ targets in 8/13 games, including 3 straight, totaling 16 catches on 23 targets in his L3 games.
He's cleared in 3/6 home games, but both games he finished with 47 yards were at home, so incredibly close to clearing in 5/6 at home.
Now, let's talk about how bad the Broncos D is against Tight Ends.
Excluding the first 3 weeks of the season, here is what Denver's D has given up to TEs.
- 5+ Receptions in 6/10 games
- 7+ Targets in 6/10 games
- 50+ Yards in 8/10 games
- 60+ Yards in 4/10 games (Games with 58 and 59)
Enough said. Cole Kmet had a career day against Denver, 7 catches for 85 yards on 9 targets, plus two touchdowns. Cole freaking Kmet.
I think this future Top 5 TE will have no problem getting 50 yards.
Lotto Parlay
For those interested in Long-shot Parlays, I did ladder all of these fellas for a nice payout.
- Mixon: 40+ Receiving Yards (+198)
- Pittman Jr: 9+ Receptions (+198)
- Laporta: 60+ Receiving Yards (+142)
- 3 Team Parlay: +2049
I'm so confident, I put a half unit on it to win 10u. Let's get it.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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