Packers vs. Lions | NFL Week 13 Breakdown & Best Bets: Turkey Day Throwdown
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Wed Nov 26, 2025, 11:28 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Happy Turkey Day. Today's a day to be thankful, be with family and to stuff yourself full of food. We've got a beautiful looking NFL slate to sweat with the family, so let's jump right into the first game of the day; Packers/Lions at Ford Field.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Ford Field; Detroit, Michigan
- Date: Thursday, November 27th, 2025
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love (9-6; 2024 – 225.9 YPG | 25 TD | 11 INT)
- Detroit Lions: Jared Goff (15-2; 2024 – 273.3 YPG | 37 TD | 12 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Thanksgiving at Ford Field
The Detroit Lions have played on Thanksgiving Day every single year since 1945. The team moved to Ford Field in 2002 and every year since, they've played a game here on Thanksgiving. It's a tradition like no other and this will be the second time in three years the Packers and Lions will face off on Turkey Day.
Both the Lions and Packers enter this game looking up at the Bears in the NFC North. Both teams have lost games they probably shouldn't have and both teams are now looking to right the ship and string together a few wins before the playoffs start. Jared Goff's been great this year, averaging 251.7 pass yards per game with 23 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions.
Detroit's got the third best rushing attack in the NFL, averaging 139.8 rush yards per game and the offense is scoring 29.6 points per game (2nd). They're averaging 6.1 yards per play (3rd) and have converted 65.1% of their redzone trips into touchdowns. The offense has been great and the defense is pretty good too.
Detroit's allowing just 22.1 points per game (11th), 8th in sacks, and rank 10th in rush yards allowed. The problem arises in the redzone, where the Lions' are allowing opponents to convert 61.1% of their drives into touchdowns (25th). Last week this same Lions team allowed the Giants to score 27 points and let Jameis Winston throw for 366 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The Lions lost the first of their two games against Green Bay and will now look to protect their home field. Detroit's also lost seven of their last eight Thanksgiving Day games, with four of those losses coming with Goff under center. Last year was the team's first win since 2016 and it was a 23-20 win over the (4-8) Bears.
Sweep? No Shot, right?
The Green Bay Packers enter this week's matchup with a perfect 2-0 record against the NFC North. The Packers have only played the Lions and Vikings thus far but both wins came by two or more touchdowns. Green Bay's offense ranks 14th in points scored but 6th in redzone efficiency. They're scoring just 23.9 points per game but they're also converting 65.9% of their redzone drives into touchdowns.
The Packers rank 1st in third down conversion rate, 9th in first downs, 11th in yards per play and have given up the 2nd fewest amount of turnovers this year. Jordan Love's averaging 232.7 pass yards per game with 15 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. On the road this year, Love's averaging 246.6 yards per game with 10 touchdowns and just 1 interception (111.1 QBR).
On the defensive side of the ball, Micah Parsons has been everything Packers' fans could've hoped for and more. Parsons leads the NFL with 60 pressures and is on track to set a career high in sacks. The team's giving up just 18.4 points per game (5th) and rank 5th in opponent pass yards and 6th in opponent rush yards. Green Bay has given up the 3rd fewest touchdowns on the year and held this same Lions offense to just 13 points in their first meeting.
Green Bay lost both meetings against the Lions last year and I'm sure they'd love to return the favor this year. The Packers stole a win here at Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day 2023. Love threw for 268 yards, 3 touchdowns and finished the day with a passer rating of 125.5. After getting a taste of that sweet Turkey last year, I'm sure the Lions will do everything in their power to make sure Love and company aren't the ones feasting at the end of this game.
Thursday's Best Bet
Jordan Love o1.5 Touchdown Passes (+100) | BetOnline
The Lions rank 26th in touchdown passes allowed and have allowed opposing QBs to hit this line in 8 of their 11 games this year. The Lions have given up just 5 rushing touchdowns to opposing backs this year but have given up 20 total touchdowns through the air.
Love's also thrown 10 of his 15 touchdown passes this year on the road and this week they'll be under perfect weather conditions; indoors at Ford Field. He's hit this line in 3 of the team's 5 road games and threw 3 touchdown passes last time he played on Thanksgiving. The total's set at 48 for a divisional, primetime game and they're giving us Love at plus money.
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