Packers vs. Cowboys | NFL Week 4 Breakdown & Best Bets: Return to Jerry’s World

The Packers head back to Jerry's World this week for a big matchup with the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Let's jump right into it.

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Game Information

Matchup Information

• Location:AT&T Stadium; Arlington, Texas
• Date: Sunday, September 28th, 2025
• Kickoff: 8:20 PM EST

Quarterback Matchup

• Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love (9-6; 2024 – 225.9 YPG | 25 TD | 11 INT)
• Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott (3-5; 2024 – 247.3 YPG | 11 TD | 8 INT)

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Analysis & Breakdown

Return to Jerry's World

The biggest storyline heading into Week 4, Micah Parsons making his return to AT&T Stadium; now lining up against the very team that drafted him. When this game was scheduled, no one knew Micah would end up in Green Bay. The consensus was that despite the games Jerry Jones was playing, he would pay Parsons and keep him with the Cowboys. Now we know that's not what happened and while their relationship didn't end explosively, you've got to think there's a little extra motivation going into this  matchup; for both sides.

Parsons has been absolutely unstoppable with his new team. Through three weeks with Parsons leading the defense, the Packers rank 1st in pressures, 2nd in sacks and 1st in yards per play play. Parsons is the 3rd highest graded pass rusher this season, winning 27% of his battles at the line of scrimmage, despite seeing the 2nd highest double team rate.

Green Bay's defense has been elite this year and it's time for this offense to step up. The Packers rank 29th in pass play percentage, 28th in pass attempts per game and have just looked very conservative overall. Through the first two weeks the Packers offense looked great, Love was given time in the pocket and they proceeded to shred defenses. Last week that all flipped, the offensive line was the worst it's ever been with Love under center and Myles Garrett wreaked havoc.

This week the Packers will be without both their starting RT, Zach Tom and starting LG Aaron Banks. Usually this would concern me, but the Cowboys rank 24th in pass rush and have generated just four sacks all year.

Undefeated in Arlington

Dallas comes into this one fresh off a beatdown in Chicago, losing to the Bears 31-14 and allowing Caleb Williams to throw for four touchdowns and just under 300 yards. This coming just a week after giving up 450 yards and three touchdowns to Russell Wilson. The Cowboys rank 27th in coverage grade this year, 24th in pass rush and that's never a good combination.

The Cowboys are undefeated at home this year. That's about as good as it gets for this Dallas team, with that one win also coming a terrible Giants squad. You know who else is undefeated at AT&T Stadium? The Packers.

Since the Cowboys made the move to AT&T Stadium back in 2009, the Packers have played five regular season games and one postseason game here in Arlington. They are a perfect 6-0 in these games, the most recent being in the Wild Card Round of the 2023 playoffs.

Nevertheless, the Cowboys are staring down the barrel of a 1-3 start and with their backs against the wall; I fully  expect them to come out and compete.

Sunday Night's Best Bet

Tucker Kraft o44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Packers' leader in target share, with just 15 targets; Tucker Kraft. The entire Packers offense is predicated on the idea that it can come from anyone at anytime. Head Coach Matt LaFleur is someone that likes to go after mismatches and weaknesses and this week the Packers face a Cowboys defense that runs zone coverage at the highest rate in the league.

This year we've seen Kraft thrive against zone coverage. He's caught all six of his targets against zone defenses, recording 103 yards while averaging 17.2 yards per catch and 3.03 yards per route run. The Cowboys have yet to play an elite tight end this year but rank 32nd in receiving yards allowed, overall. Two of their three starting linebackers are graded in the bottom eight for overall defensive grade and Kraft leads all tight ends this year in receiving yards, sits second in yards after contact and has six catches of 10+ yards this year.

Look for Kraft to have a significant impact in this game.

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