NFL Week 5 Thursday Night Prop Picks (Colts vs. Broncos)

Sweatpants Jesus

Can you believe it’s Week five already?

Time flies when you’re having fun and I can confirm fun is definitely being had.

The fun continues on Thursday Night Football with the Indianapolis Colts traveling to Mile High to take on the ‘Let’s Ride’ boys, the Denver Broncos.

Both of these teams came into the season with Mile High hopes and lofty expectations, and so far, neither have looked the part.

Russell Wilson was brought to Denver for 250+ million dollars to make the Broncos immediate contenders. He and head coach Nathaniel Hackett were apparently crafting up all kinds of offensive game plans before the season started, leading everyone to believe, myself included, that the Broncos were going to be a problem in the AFC.

Seems like those meetings haven’t quite translated on the field yet. At all.

Wilson looks discombobulated, unsure, and frankly, not very accurate. The offense, in turn, is very stagnant and not nearly as explosive as many thought.

Add in the news that Javonte Williams tore his ACL, LCL and posterior lateral corner, per Ian Rapoport, and things are beginning to look bleak for the early season contender.

On the other side, the media darling Colts were set to run away with the AFC South and Matt Ryan was going to revitalise his career in Indy by being the perfect compliment to the ‘Best Running back in the League,’ Jonathan Taylor.

They invested heavily in the offensive line, having the highest paid unit in the league, and added pieces, like Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakoue on defense, who were going to pair perfectly with a now healthy Shaquille Leonard.

Well, the offensive line has struggled mightily to start the year, Gilmore and Ngakoue haven’t factored in very much and Leonard made his debut last week agains the Titans, only to break his nose and get a concussion.

To add the cherry on top, Jonathan Taylor missed his first practice ever, in his entire football career, last week. He played in the game against the Titans but got banged up again and he is questionable for this game on Thursday.

Sheesh.

Both of these teams have had brutal starts and now get to face each other in what feels like must-win territory for both squads.

The Colts can’t afford to go to 1-3-1 with yet another AFC loss. It wouldn’t be season over but it would really put the pressure on and Frank Reich’s seat would begin to get a little warm.

The Broncos, who are a tad better off at 2-2, have to put up a good performance at home to get their fans back on their side. With the expectations going into the season set so high, not putting up points and looking disjointed in all phases just isn’t going to cut it.

All of that to say, this game could be ugly. Neither team has clicked offensively, both teams are banged up and desperation could set in if things stay close. But, never fear, I still have found some props that are definitely worth a bet. Let’s dive in…

Alec Pierce o34.5 rec yards (-114) FanDuel

Even though the Colts offense hasn’t been great, by any means, Pierce has been one of the bright spots. The rookie has gained Matt Ryan’s trust, with 5+ targets two weeks in a row and 61 and 80 yards respectively.

A lot of the focus of the opposing defense has been with stopping Mitchael Pittman, which is giving Pierce one-on-one matchups that he is taking advantage of. This line feels too low and if he has another 60+ yards performance, it may not be this low again. Let’s take advantage.

With Jonathan Taylor being banged up, even if he plays, he will probably be limited so the Colts will probably have to throw a bit more than usual. Which leads me to…

Matt Ryan INT (-123) Caesers

This one is an easy bet. He leads the league in turnovers with 8 and is only second in interceptions to Matthew Stafford, with 5.

As I mentioned, the Colts aren’t going to be able to heavily rely on Jonathan Taylor, if he even plays. Either way, that means Ryan is going to have to throw it more.

More drop backs equals more chances for picks. He has been hurried and pressured all season and I could see a mistake or two because of it.

As for the Broncos, I had to dig. But I have found one play that I absolutely love. A lot.

Melvin Gordon o12.5 Rec Yards (-104) Caesers

With no Javonte Williams for the rest of the season, it’s Melvin Gordon time. I didn’t know which prop of his I wanted to take and then I saw his receiving yards line, I couldn’t bet it fast enough.

He hit this line in two of the first four games splitting time with Williams. Now that he is going to get the lion’s share of the workload, I love the low number and could see him getting 5+ targets and possibly a couple of designed screens.

The Colts have a very good run D but the Titans exposed them a bit last week by using their aggressiveness against them by getting the ball to Derrick Henry in space with screens or swing passes.

If the Broncos are smart, they will do the same with Gordon, who is a great pass-catcher. A nice recipe for some big gains if executed properly. At -104 with that upside potential, say less.

That is all I am going to go with for this one. I don’t want to force too much and this game could get sloppy and desperate. But hey, its better than no football on a Thursday night, right?

Should be entertaining, good or bad, and, as a long-time Titans fan, Go Broncos 😉

Follow me on Twitter @SweatpantsJesus and @BN_Content for more stories, insight and just overall vibes. Peace and Love

Sweatpants Jesus
Sweatpants Jesus

Daniel Collins is a sports fanatic and data-driven bettor. He has expertise in the NFL, NHL, and EPL. He’s a big fan of the Titans #titanup, Predators #predators and Arsenal #coyg. If he isn’t watching, betting on or writing about sports, he loves the outdoors, traveling, strong coffee and delicious food. Follow him on Twitter @SweatpantsJesus. Peace and Love

Daniel Collins is a sports fanatic and data-driven bettor. He has expertise in the NFL, NHL, and EPL. He’s a big fan of the Titans #titanup, Predators #predators and Arsenal #coyg. If he isn’t watching, betting on or writing about sports, he loves the outdoors, traveling, strong coffee and delicious food. Follow him on Twitter @SweatpantsJesus. Peace and Love