Super Bowl 55 Betting Preview: Mahomes, Chiefs Eye Repeat Titles

Eddie Griffin

Super Bowl 55 is almost here, and for sports betting enthusiasts, fans of the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or neutral observers, that means that one of the most anticipated days of the year is almost here.

On one side are the Chiefs, the reigning Super Bowl champions. Over the course of the season, the Chiefs have been Super Bowl betting favorites much of the way, led by the game’s greatest current player. Now, only one game stands between them and the first Super Bowl repeat in 16 years.

On the other side are the Buccaneers, who are the first team to play in the Super Bowl in their home stadium. To reach this point, they have had a less straightforward path than the Chiefs. But they have ridden a playmaking defense and the presence of arguably the greatest quarterback of all time to their first Super Bowl appearance in 18 years.

Who will taste victory on Sunday night in Tampa? Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady? The Chiefs have been favored since opening Super Bowl 55 odds were released.

Super Bowl 55 Betting Odds and Information

  • Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs (14-2, AFC West champions, #1 seed in the AFC) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5, 2nd in the NFC South, #5 seed in the NFC)
  • Date: Sunday, February 7, 2021
  • Time: 6:30 pm ET/5:30 pm CT
  • Location: Tampa, Florida (Raymond James Stadium)
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread: Chiefs -3 (-120), Buccaneers +3 (+100)
  • Total: OVER 55.5 (-115), UNDER 55.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -168, Buccaneers +142

Odds via Fanduel as of Thursday, February 3 at 10:15 am ET

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

If ever there was an underappreciated 14-2 season, this one has been it. There have not been many dominant wins, but the Chiefs have defeated all of the toughest opponents on their schedule, made easy work of the AFC West, and coolly strolled to a second straight Super Bowl.

There have certainly been challenges. In the divisional round, Patrick Mahomes went down with a concussion, and the Browns pulled close in the fourth quarter. But they made the plays needed when needed to close out Cleveland. Then in the AFC Championship Game against the Bills, they were down 9-0 in the first quarter before dominating the rest of the game.

The offense gets the most plaudits, as it should. Patrick Mahomes and his explosive T(ravis) n’ T(yreek) duo ran riot against the Bills, with Kelce (13 catches, 118 yards, 2 TD) and Hill (nine catches, 172 yards) combining for 290 of Mahomes’ 325 yards and 22 of his 29 completions. But the defense does not break often, and they were tied for fifth in the league in interceptions with 16.

On the injury front, rookie linebacker Willie Gay, Jr. tore his meniscus in practice last week and is out. However, receiver Sammy Watkins, who has been out since Week 16 with a calf injury, has returned to practice and is on track to play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview

The Bucs are where many thought they could be, and they face the last team to beat them. As it happens, their loss against the Chiefs was perhaps the catalyst for their run.

In Week 12, Mahomes torched the Bucs for a season-high 462 yards in a 27-24 win in Tampa. That was clearly a wakeup call for the Bucs defense, which has been much better since. The defense has been especially good in the playoffs, and the offense has taken full advantage. In the postseason, the Bucs defense has forced seven turnovers, and the offense has cashed in with touchdowns six times.

Offensively, in the seven games since the loss to the Chiefs, the Bucs have not been held under 30 points. Brady has not had to be dominant for that entire period, but he has been efficient when he has not been excellent. That said, he will need to avoid a repeat of the NFC Championship Game, where he threw three interceptions, or the first meeting against the Chiefs, in which he was picked off twice.

The Bucs have a trio of notable injury concerns as the game approaches. Receiver Antonio Brown missed the NFC Championship Game with a knee injury, but he is attempting to work his way back to be available Sunday. Rookie safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. also missed the NFC Championship Game due to an ankle injury, but he has already stated that he will be playing. Meanwhile, fellow safety Jordan Whitehead, who injured his shoulder while forcing a key turnover in the NFC Championship Game, has returned to practice but is still not a certainty to be available.

Super Bowl 55 Betting Stats and Trends

Kansas City Chiefs Stat Sheet

Offense

  • PPG: 29.6 (6th in the NFL)
  • Total Yards Per Game: 415.8 (1st)
  • Passing Yards Per Game: 303.4 (1st)
  • Rushing Yards Per Game: 112.4 (16th)
  • Giveaways: 16 (tied for 4th)

Defense

  • PPG: 22.6 (tied for 10th)
  • Total Yards Per Game: 358.3 (16th)
  • Passing Yards Per Game: 236.2 (14th)
  • Rushing Yards Per Game: 122.1 (21st)
  • Takeaways: 22 (tied for 10th)

Kansas City Chiefs Recent Form

  • 1/24/21: Kansas City Chiefs 38-24 Buffalo Bills (AFC Championship Game)
  • 1/17/21: Kansas City Chiefs 22-17 Cleveland Browns (AFC Divisional Round)
  • 1/3/21: Kansas City Chiefs 21-38 Los Angeles Chargers (Week 17)
  • 12/27/20: Kansas City Chiefs 17-14 Atlanta Falcons (Week 16)
  • 12/20/20: New Orleans Saints 29-32 Kansas City Chiefs (Week 15)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stat Sheet

Offense

  • PPG: 30.8 (3rd)
  • Total Yards Per Game: 384.1 (7th)
  • Passing Yards Per Game: 289.1 (2nd)
  • Rushing Yards Per Game: 94.9 (tied for 29th)
  • Giveaways: 17 (tied for 7th)

Defense

  • PPG: 22.2 (8th)
  • Total Yards Per Game: 327.1 (6th)
  • Passing Yards Per Game: 246.6 (21st)
  • Rushing Yards Per Game: 80.6 (1st)
  • Takeaways: 25 (tied for 5th)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Recent Form

  • 1/24/21: Green Bay Packers 26-31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC Championship Game)
  • 1/17/21: New Orleans Saints 20-30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC Divisional Round)
  • 1/9/21: Washington Football Team 23-31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC Wild-Card Round)
  • 1/3/21: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44-27 Atlanta Falcons (Week 17)
  • 12/26/20: Detroit Lions 7-47 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 16)

Super Bowl 55 Top Betting Trend

  • Super Bowl betting underdogs were dominant for a 15-year stretch, with eight underdogs winning SU and three others covering in defeat. But the tables have turned in recent years. The favorite has won and covered in three of the last four years, including last year.

Super Bowl 55 Betting Advice

When these two teams met in Week 12, the Chiefs started fast before having to hold on to win. The rematch will be closer throughout than the first meeting, but the end result will be the same. This time, however, the Chiefs will cover the spread, and the over will hit.

Super Bowl 55 Best Bets

  • Kansas City Chiefs -3
  • Kansas City Chiefs ML
  • OVER 56.5

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