NFL Saturday Best Bets: December 23rd, 2023
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Sat Dec 23, 2023, 10:15 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
nfl
The NFL has blessed us with a couple games on Saturday, so let's get into these two matchups!
First up, we have an AFC North Showdown as the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jake Browning leads the Bengals who will be without Ja'Marr Chase, and Mason Rudolph has been told he will be getting the start for the Steelers.
Let's break down both of these games and find our best bets!
NFL Saturday Preview
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Acrusure Stadium (Pittsburgh, PA)
- Date: Saturday, December 23rd, 2023
- Kick Off: 4:30pm Eastern
- Broadcast: NBC
Betting Odds
- Bengals -2 (-110)
- Steelers +2 (-110)
- Over/Under 36.5
The Pick: Tyler Boyd Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Get These Odds and a Deposit Bonus @ Bovada
With no Chase, Boyd is going to have to step up, and this line is way too low. It wouldn't surprise me if this line inches closer to 40 by kick off.
Boyd has cleared this line in 60% of games dating back the last two seasons, and he's going to see an increased role as the #2 Wide Receiver on Saturday.
This season, he's cleared this line in 9/14 games (64%), posting 50+ 4 times, and 100+ Receiving Yards once this season. He's hit this line in 3/6 away games this year, including 3 of his L4, plus he's cleared this line in both career games at Pittsburgh.
He averages 5.4 Targets against Pittsburgh, but without Chase, I'm comfortable with him seeing 6-7, which should be plenty to get him over this number.
Just 34 yards from Boyd is far too low for this matchup.
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)
- Date: Saturday, December 23rd, 2023
- Kick Off: 8:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: Peacock
Betting Odds
- Bills -11.5 (-105)
- Chargers +11.5 (-115)
- Over/Under 44
The Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Receptions (+110) Get These Odds and a Deposit Bonus @ Bovada
There's no doubt that Diggs is the Bills WR1, but he hasn't necessarily looked like it the past few games.
Diggs has 7+ catches in just 6/14 games this season, and they all came within the opening eight games. He has not cleared this line in 6 straight contests.
Saying "he's due" would be a massive understatement.
He's caught 6 passes 4 separate times this year, so just one more catch is needed to get over the hump.
The Chargers are 30th in Passing Yards Allowed and 27th in Passing Attempts Allowed, so clearly throwing the ball is the way to beat LA.
Diggs averages nearly double digit targets so far this season, and last game against the Chargers he caught 7 of 9 targets for 39 yards. The Charges refuse to let him beat them deep, so he catches plenty of balls underneath for short yardage.
The Bills and Diggs are bound for a breakout game before the playoffs, and I could certainly see it happening on Saturday against this Chargers secondary.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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