NFL Fantasy Football 2026 Mid Draft Value Picks: Quarterbacks

We are back with part two of the Betting News 2026 Fantasy Football QB series. Last week we covered the early round picks — Lamar Jackson at the top of round four and Joe Burrow's high-risk, high-reward case in round five. Today we go mid-rounds, and I'll be honest with you: this is where I think the real money is in the QB market this year. Three players with legitimate QB1 upside, all available at prices that reflect question marks the market is pricing in too heavily.

This is an ongoing series where I highlight players who REEK of value in fantasy drafts. We aren't talking about grabbing Ja'Marr Chase with the first overall pick, but instead we are going to be finding gems and value. Each article will feature a position within a range of draft rounds (we will always skip the first round). We will assume that these picks are for 12-team leagues with .5 PPR and will not be discussing in terms of Superflex. On top of that, I'll highlight a futures bet that corresponds with each player, all of whose odds can be found on BetOnline.

So without further ado, let's kick it off with NFL fantasy football 2026 early-round value picks: the quarterbacks. It's mock draft season baby!!!

1. Quarterback Fantasy Value Round 7: Justin Herbert

Mike McDaniel. The dude is like the nutty professor for creative offensive schemes. He made the Dolphins one of the most entertaining teams for years while he coached them. And he loves QB's who can throw bombs. And he is just the type of coach who could return Justin Herbert into mailman form.

Herbert quietly leaned on his legs in 2025, ranking sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards per game and setting a career high with 498 on the ground. Paired with 26 touchdown passes, that mobility carried him to a top-10 fantasy finish despite an offensive line that lost Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt to injury for most of the year. Both tackles are expected back healthy, and the Chargers made a splashy hire in Mike McDaniel as coordinator after firing Greg Roman, a move that should open up a more creative passing attack.

Not to keep the spotlight on McDaniel, but he is really the component of this formula that could make Herbert have a transformation. As head coach in Miami, he turned Tua Tagovailoa into a multi-time Pro Bowler and generated elite PPR numbers from his running backs and receivers through motion-heavy, concept-driven offense. In San Francisco, he helped develop the most efficient passing attacks in the NFC. His quarterbacks don't just play in his system — they thrive in it. There is much hope that Herbert can reproduce the numbers of his first three seasons under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. Herbert passed for well over 4,000 yards with two 30-plus TD seasons from 2020 to 2022 and is still very capable of reaching those heights again.

Now add the health factor. Herbert had a top-10 fantasy finish in 2025 with both Pro Bowl tackles unavailable for most of the season. Herbert amassed 286.8 fantasy points last season — 10th among QBs — and has an ADP of 86th overall, eighth at his position. He gets both Slater and Alt back, plugs them into a new creative system that suits his arm talent perfectly, and is still being drafted outside the top seven at the position. That is a mistake the market is making in real time, and round seven is the window to exploit it.

Justin Herbert over 4,000 passing yards for -115 on BetOnline:

Herbert hit 4,000+ passing yards in each of his first three NFL seasons — 2020, 2021, and 2022 — before the offensive line instability suppressed his production. With a healthy line and a schematic upgrade that favors volume and quick decisions, Herbert returning to 4,000 yards is the base case, not the ceiling. At near-even money, this is one of my favorite futures bets of the QB series.

Get 50% up to $750 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

2. Quarterback Fantasy Value Round 8: Trevor Lawrence

Round eight is where I want two names on your radar simultaneously, because the market is presenting you with two very different flavors of the same value opportunity — and depending on your roster construction, one of them belongs on your team.

The Jags are nasty. I said this all last season, and they were indeed nasty. And they were still a team in transition, adapting to Liam Cohen's brilliant offense schemes. Cohen got the most out of Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield and he has already begun to work his magic in Jacksonville.

Trevor Lawrence is the known quantity. Last season, Matthew Stafford was the QB22 and finished as the QB2, and Lawrence was the QB19 and finished as the QB4. The market's memory is short. Lawrence was the QB4 in total fantasy points last year, was the flat-out best fantasy quarterback in the league from Weeks 10-18, and now enters year two of Liam Coen's system — the same system that turned him into a top-five fantasy finisher. Lawrence found his rhythm in the second half of last season, scoring 24.4 fantasy points per game from Weeks 11 to 18, including two games with 31 or more points. Plus, Lawrence can produce as a runner on designed carries and scramble attempts — he rushed for 359 yards and nine touchdowns.

The supporting cast around him is the strongest it's been in his entire career. Brian Thomas Jr. is coming off a season where he was one of the most explosive rookie receivers in the NFL. Travis Hunter — the Heisman winner who was drafted to be Jacksonville's next great playmaker — is returning from a knee injury that cost him significant time in 2025 and projects as a genuine WR1 option. And Lawrence himself provides rushing upside that most people forget about — he rushed for 359 yards and nine touchdowns in 2025, giving him a floor that pure pocket passers simply can't match. Those rushing touchdowns are real, repeatable, and scheme-designed. Coen specifically builds these plays into his offense.

He's going QB9-10. In round eight. That is wrong.

Trevor Lawrence over 28 passing touchdowns for -115 on BetOnline:

He threw for 29 passing touchdowns in 2025 while running a system he was still learning. Nine rushing scores on top of that. In year two under Coen, with Brian Thomas Jr. established and Travis Hunter healthy, the passing touchdown ceiling goes up, not down. At near-even money on a player who just finished QB4, this is one of the cleanest bets in the entire QB series. Take it.

Get 50% up to $750 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

3. Quarterback Fantasy Value Round 8+: Jaxon Dart

If Trevor Lawrence is the safe version of this round-eight bet, Jaxson Dart is the version that could make you look like a genius — or remind you why dart throws are called dart throws.

In 12 starts for the New York Giants, Dart completed 216 of 339 passes for 2,272 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Pretty good. But the number I can't turn away from is this one: 86 rushes for 487 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. A rookie quarterback with nine rushing scores. In 12 starts. Those aren't scrambles. Those are designed runs, called by a coaching staff that watched Dart at Ole Miss, where he was one of the most dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks in college football, and built a pro offense that uses his legs as a primary weapon.

He scored 20+ fantasy points in seven of his 12 starts as a rookie. Not five, not three — seven. More than half his appearances resulted in a QB1 outcome. That's a repeatable production profile from a player whose rushing floor makes him relevant even on bad passing days. In standard and .5 PPR leagues, rushing touchdowns are rushing touchdowns — they count exactly the same whether they come from the quarterback or the running back. Dart's nine rushing TDs as a rookie give him the kind of floor that veteran pocket passers spend entire careers chasing.

The 2026 setup is the most favorable of his young career. The Giants are building their entire offense around Dart — he is not a bridge starter or a project. He's the guy, and the organization has made that clear through every decision they've made this offseason. New head coach John Harbaugh has a documented track record of developing young quarterbacks — he was the offensive coordinator who helped turn Lamar Jackson from a raw prospect into the best fantasy quarterback on the planet. Harbaugh knows exactly what to do with a dual-threat quarterback who makes plays with his legs. The question isn't whether Dart fits Harbaugh's system. The question is how fast Dart's passing game catches up to the rushing foundation he's already laid.

And for the first time in years there is an cupboard full of weapons for a New York Giants' QB. Wideout sensation Malik Nabers will return this season, after only playing 5 games last year. Cam Skataboo exploded onto the fantasy scene last year, oozing chemistry with Dart. And now Harbaugh has brought in Issiah Likely from Baltimore as a pass catching tight end. The passing game efficiency numbers in 2025 were inconsistent, and Dart's accuracy on deep throws was a genuine concern late in the season. But Dart had a decimated offensive core, both on the line and who was catching the ball.

But here's the line that ends the argument for me: his current ADP is QB12, going in round eight. For a player who scored 20+ points in over half his starts as a rookie, with nine rushing touchdowns, in a system now run by the coach who turned Josh Allen into Josh Allen. At round eight, you're paying almost nothing for that upside. The downside is a 15-point floor from the rushing. The upside is a top-five finish if the passing catches up.

Jaxson Dart anytime rushing touchdown scorer in Week 1 at +150 on BetOnline:

He had nine rushing touchdowns in 12 starts as a rookie. The Giants specifically design rushing plays to use his mobility, and Daboll's offensive system will only add more of them in year two. A rushing score in Week 1 from a quarterback who averages 0.75 per game in that department is well within the range of outcomes — and at plus money, it's a perfect way to open the season alongside your fantasy investment.

Get 50% up to $750 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

Interested in More Content?

More NFL Content on Betting News:

• NFL Expert Betting Guide
• 2026 Top Draft Wide Receiver – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Mid Draft Wide Receiver – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Late Draft Wide Receiver – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Top Draft Running Backs – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Mid Draft Running Backs – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Late Draft Running Backs – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Early Draft Quarterbacks – NFL Fantasy 

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