NFL Fantasy Football 2026 Early Draft Value Picks: Quaterbacks

We are back with the Betting News 2026 Fantasy Football series and it's time to talk about the most debated position in all of fantasy football — the quarterback. Now look, I'm going to start with some philosophy here that matters more in this series than any other position we've covered.

Before we dive in — we are also skipping round two and round three entirely for quarterbacks in this series. The reason is simple: the position is so deep in 2026 that paying a premium in the first five rounds for a QB is almost always a mistake in one-QB leagues. You can wait. You should wait. And when you do finally pull the trigger — rounds four and five are the earliest I'd go — you're going to get one of these two players.

This is an ongoing series where I highlight players who REEK of value in fantasy drafts. We aren't talking about grabbing Ja'Marr Chase with the first overall pick, but instead we are going to be finding gems and value. Each article will feature a position within a range of draft rounds (we will always skip the first round). We will assume that these picks are for 12-team leagues with .5 PPR and will not be discussing in terms of Superflex. On top of that, I'll highlight a futures bet that corresponds with each player, all of whose odds can be found on BetOnline.

So without further ado, let's kick it off with NFL fantasy football 2026 early-round value picks: the quarterbacks. It's mock draft season baby!!!

1. Quarterback Fantasy Value Round 4: Lamar Jackson

BUY THE DIP. And let me explain exactly what the dip is, because this one requires context.

In 2024, Lamar Jackson was the overall QB1 in fantasy football. He was an absolute monster — the reigning MVP, the most dangerous dual-threat quarterback in the game, a weekly cheat code for every manager lucky enough to roster him. Then 2025 happened. In his first three games of the 2025 season, Jackson was right back in form — he averaged 27 fantasy points per game while handling 16% of Baltimore's designed rush attempts, averaging 240.7 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns and 39.3 rushing yards per game. Then Week 4 happened. A hamstring injury derailed everything, and when he returned in Week 9 he was simply a different player. His designed rush rate was cut in half, his fantasy production cratered, and the entire fantasy community watched a sure-fire QB1 finish turn into a disappointing year.

Here's the important thing: Jackson ran the ball less frequently and less effectively than what we are accustomed to seeing, but we're betting that the injuries were the main reason for his struggles and he looks like a great bounce-back candidate in 2026. Perhaps no quarterback has as much upside as Jackson, and it's perfectly reasonable to draft him as a top-three quarterback in 2026.

The market has overcorrected. Jackson is currently going as the QB2 at pick ~40, which is nearly two full rounds behind Josh Allen. Is Allen really two rounds better than Jackson? When Jackson lands in round four, you're getting a player with proven QB1 ceiling at a price that reflects a single injury-plagued season. He is really the only quaterback I'm willing to take this early, and while I most likely won't own any Lamar shares (again), I understand why someone would grab him in the first 5 rounds.

The addition of new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle is worth monitoring —a clean bill of health and potentially an uptick in pass volume from new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle will have Jackson once again contending for overall QB1 status in 2026. He still has Zay Flowers, Derrick Henry, and a pair of new weapons from the 2026 draft. When healthy, there is no higher fantasy ceiling at the quarterback position. Grab him in round four and don't look back.

Lamar Jackson over 27.5 fantasy points in Week 1 for +145 on BetOnline:

He averaged 27 PPG across his first three fully healthy games of 2025 before the hamstring hit. In the weeks he was fully healthy and featured, Jackson operated at his typical elite level. Opening the season healthy, with revenge motivation, and against a defense TBD — betting on the best player in football to have a big Week 1 at plus money is exactly the kind of line I love to open the season with.

Get 50% up to $750 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

2. Quarterback Fantasy Value Round 5: Joe Burrow

Now here's where the philosophy I mentioned at the top really comes into play. In a deep quarterback year where you can get genuine QB1 talent in rounds 5, 6, and 7, the opportunity cost of spending a fifth-round pick on a signal caller is real. But when the player available is Joe Burrow — one of the three or four most talented passers in the NFL — the math changes.

Burrow's career arc has been a rollercoaster. In three seasons where he's played at least 11 games, he has finished as a top-seven fantasy quarterback all three times. Three seasons of full availability, three top-seven finishes. The problem? In three of his six NFL seasons, he has failed to play in more than 10 games. Injuries. Always injuries. And that's the only reason he's available in round five.

In his last six games after returning from his 2025 toe injury, Burrow averaged 24.8 points per game — six points per passing TD. That's more than what Drake Maye averaged in 2025, and it might be closer to Burrow's floor than his upside. His supporting cast remains elite — if he is healthy, this offense can support several premium options. Burrow has yet to produce a 5,000-yard season, but the ceiling is there. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins give him a second legitimate weapon.

The Joe Burrow fantasy outlook 2026 comes down to your risk tolerance. If you trust the health and the offense, he is a top-five quarterback available at a fourth-quarterback price, and that is a bargain worth taking every time. That's it. That's the whole argument. If you're comfortable with the risk — and round five is exactly the right price to accept it — Burrow is the most talented QB available at his price point and among the best values in the entire draft. Let's hope this season the rollercoaster is going back up.

Joe Burrow over 29.5 passing touchdowns for -115 on BetOnline:

Projection models peg Burrow for something in the neighborhood of 4,300 passing yards and 35 touchdowns over a full 2026 slate. The last time he played a full season, he led the NFL with 43 touchdowns. The ceiling here is genuine and the 30-TD line is achievable even with modest regression. At near-even money on one of the game's elite passers, this is the bet to pair with your fantasy investment.

Get 50% up to $750 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

3. Quarterback Fantasy Value Round 6+: Jaylen Hurts

If round 4 or 5 are too early for you to dive into the QB position in NFL fantasy, well then maybe Lamar-lite in Round 6 is just for you. Hurts is going off the board as the QB6 with an overall ADP as low as it's been since he became established as a perennial QB1. Allen is the best QB in fantasy, but is he really three full rounds better than Hurts?  The market is pricing in a lot of uncertainty — the loss of A.J. Brown, a third consecutive new offensive coordinator, and a 2025 season in which Hurts finished as the QB8. All of it is real. None of it justifies three rounds of separation from the QB1.

Since Jalen Hurts took over as the full-time starter for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2021, he has been a top-10 fantasy football quarterback in all five seasons. Five seasons, five top-10 finishes. Even in his worst year, he finishes top-10. That is the definition of a high-floor asset.

You know I love bounce-backs. Hurts will be under the new offense under Sean Mannion featuring more pre-snap motion, more deception, and more plays from under center — a scheme that should help him find the rhythm he lost in 2025. The rushing touchdowns are the real engine here. If the Eagles can get back to their level as a top-eight unit in points and yards per game, it should give Hurts more touchdown opportunities. If he can post double-digit rushing TDs, something he's done in four of the past five years, he should be able to bounce back.

There is a 15-pick gap between Hurts and the next quarterback off the board after him. Hurts being the QB6 is great value for him. Take that value in round six and don't overthink it.

Jalen Hurts over 650.5 rushing yards for -110 on BetOnline:

Hurts has surpassed 600 rushing yards in four of his five seasons as a full-time starter. Even in his worst rushing season — 2024, with 460 yards — the Eagles ran a pass-first scheme that suppressed his mobility. A healthier, more balanced offense in 2026 should unlock the rushing production that makes Hurts genuinely elite. At near-even money, this is the easy bet attached to your fantasy investment.

Get 50% up to $750 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

Interested in More Content?

More NFL Content on Betting News:

• NFL Expert Betting Guide
• 2026 Top Draft Wide Receiver – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Mid Draft Wide Receiver – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Late Draft Wide Receiver – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Top Draft Running Backs – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Mid Draft Running Backs – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Late Draft Running Backs – NFL Fantasy

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