NFL Divisional Round Trends, Notes & Insights | Betting Preview

The NFL's Divisional Round is just a few days away and we've got some great looking matchups. The weekend kicks off in Mile High, where the Bills' #4 ranked offense will take on the #3 ranked Denver Broncos' defense. This will be Denver's first home playoff game under Head Coach Sean Payton and it'll be Sean McDermott's 6th road playoff game with the Buffalo Bills. McDermott's gone 1-4 in the previous five games, with the lone win coming last week.

Next on the Saturday slate is a divisional rivalry in the Divisional Round. The Seahawks host the 49ers as these two teams meet for the third time this year. The two teams split the two regular season meetings, with the Hawks winning the most recent game in Week 18.

Sunday begins with the Houston Texans taking on the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Both the Texans and Patriots wreaked havoc in the Wild Card, both teams finishing with 6 and 4 sacks respectively. The Divisional Round finishes with the Los Angeles Rams and the Chicago Bears; live from the frigid Soldier Field.

We've got four great matchups this weekend so let's jump right into these Divisional Trends.

For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page. For more information on the NFL Playoffs, check out our NFL Playoff Betting Hub. 

You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos

Buffalo's Finest

As it sits right now, the Bills enter this game as a 1.5 point dog, with the total sitting at 46. The line's already flipped, opening at 1.5-points favoring the Bills and has now since flipped to 1.5 towards the Broncos. Buffalo's set to play their sixth road game with Head Coach Sean McDermott and until last week, they still hadn't won a single one of them.

The Bills have gone 1-4 on the road with Josh Allen under Center and Sean McDermott on the sidelines. The team's giving up 31.6 points per game in these five games and have allowed 30+ points in 3 of the 5 games. Allen's averaging 278 pass yards per game, completing 64.5% of his passes with 11 total touchdowns and he's thrown just 1 interception. The offense is averaging 27 points per game and Allen's performed better against top defensive squads.

• When facing teams that allowed less than 20 points per game (PPG), Allen's gone 30-10 straight up (SU) and an astounding 29-10-1 against the spread (ATS). Allen played 16 of these games on the road, winning 12 of the 16.
• In the postseason, Allen's gone 6-3 ATS against teams allowing fewer than 21 PPG and 0-5 ATS when facing a team that allowed greater than 21 PPG.
  • This speaks to the Bills inability to cover large spreads against bad defenses and their ability to win games they maybe shouldn't.

The other issue Buffalo has is the fact they're facing a huge rest disadvantage. The Broncos are the #1 seed in this year's playoffs and it afforded them the extra week off and a home game to kick things off. Buffalo played on Sunday last week and will kick off the Divisional Round on Saturday afternoon. That's less than seven days to turn around and starting prepping for this Broncos' defense that's been terrorizing opposing QBs.

• Josh Allen's done fairly well on short weeks in his career, especially following a win. Directly off a win, Allen's 12-5 SU off a short week and that's exactly the situation he's in this week.

The Bills have been good against good teams and sputtered against bad teams. Thing about the Divisional Round is, they're all good teams.

• Buffalo is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year.
• Buffalo is 6-1 ATS against teams over .500; 19-6 ATS over the last three years.

Bucking Bronco

The Broncos are rested, ready and I'm assuming just waiting for the opening kickoff. The team ranks 3rd in points allowed, 7th in pass yards allowed, 2nd in rush yards allowed, 1st in sacks, 1st in QB hits and pressure rate. The defense has been one for the ages and it's a been a collective effort from the entire unit. Denver has eight players with more than 3 sacks this year and they've been terrorizing opposing QBs from the jump.

• Denver is 7-10 ATS this year, 3-9 as a favorite but 4-1 as a dog.

The Broncos started this week as a 1.5 point dog, but as the line stands now they're favored to win this game; albeit ever so slightly. If the Broncos do flip back to the dog, it would be just the fourth time in 40 years that the team off a bye week in the Divisional Round would be the underdog. The home dogs won in all three instances: Eagles (2017/18), 49ers (2011/2012), and the Panthers (1996/97).

Now if Denver closes as a dog, they'd be the sixth team in the last 20 years to open as a dog but close as a favorite. The home favorite has gone 1-4 both SU and ATS in this situation. The thing that sets this Broncos team apart is their defense and in recent years good defense has won you games in the divisional round.

• Since 2015, teams in the divisional round coming off a bye week and having allowed fewer than 13 points in their last two games have gone a perfect 4-0. The Broncos are off a bye week, having allowed just 16 total points over the last two weeks of the regular season.

Lastly, Sean Payton thrives at home in the postseason and he's been almost untouchable when he's got the extended rest/prep time.

• Sean Payton's teams are 7-3 SU at home in the playoffs.
• Sean Payton's a perfect 4-0 SU with the extra week of prep (bye week).

49ers vs. Seahawks

Legion of Boom

The Seahawks defense has been fantastic this year. The team ranks 1st in points allowed, 3rd in rush yards allowed, 2nd yards per play, 6th sacks and 2nd in QB hits. The Hawks look great and so does their 'new' QB, Sam Darnold. This will be Darnold's second start in the postseason and Head Coach Mike Macdonald's first as Head Coach.

The Seahawks have secured the #1 seed in the NFC three times before, making the Super Bowl every year that they do.

• Since 2018/19, the #1 seed has gone just 5-10 ATS in the playoffs and a #1 seed hasn't lifted the Lombardi trophy since the Eagles did it in 2017.

Darnold's been great for the Hawks this year. He's completing 67.7% of his passes this year, averaging 238.1. pass yards per game with 25 touchdown passes and 14 intercetpions. One other thing Darnold's done well is cover the spread as a big favorite.

As a favorite of:

• > 3 points: 16-3 SU | 11-8 ATS
• > 4 points: 14-1 SU | 10-5 ATS
• > 5 points: 13-0 SU | 10-3 ATS
  • Average margin of victory in games with spread >5 points: 16.1 PPG

Bang, Bang; Niner Gang

The 49ers come into this game battered, bruised and missed countless people on both sides of the ball. The team lost George Kittle last week to a torn achilles and will once again just have to make do without him. The Niners come into this game as the more experienced team, that's for sure.

Head Coach Kyle Shanahan is widely regarded as one of the NFL's best. He's been Head Coach of the 49ers for 9 seasons, finishing with double digit wins in 5 of the 9 years and making it to the Super Bowl twice.

• Kyle Shanahan is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round/Divisional Rounds; going a perfect 3-0 as an underdog.
• Shanahan is 9-4 SU in the playoffs and has never won fewer than two games in a single playoff run.

Purdy just finished his fourth regular season in the NFL and the 26-year old's already played in seven total playoff games. Purdy's won five of the seven games, averaging 229.3 pass yards per game with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

• Purdy's started eight career games against the Hawks, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in these games.
• In Seattle, Purdy's a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS; winning by an average of 10.5 PPG.
• Purdy is 7-1 SU on the road, against the NFC West.
• Purdy has played a Mike Macdonald defense five times in his career: averaging 7.2 yards/attempts, with 6 TDs, 8 interceptions and a passer rating of 79.7.

Lastly, we can't forget about Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey hasn't played in a ton of playoff games in his long career, but he shows up every time he gets the opportunity.

• McCaffrey's played 8 career playoff games, averaging 71.3 rush yards per game, 47.5 receiving yards per game and he's scored 11 total touchdowns.
• McCaffrey's scored a touchdown in 8 straight playoff games, becoming just the 4th ever to accomplish this feat and now he sits just one game back of the record holder; Thurman Thomas (9).

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

Treacherous Twins

The Texans' defense is scary. There's no other way to explain what these guys do to opposing QBs, the entire defense is just scary. Starting up front with guys like Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. The Texans' two-some has been unstoppable this year and it's why they both rank in the top 10 for pressure rate, sacks, QB hits and tackles for a loss.

The defense has a whole ranks 2nd in points allowed, 6th in pass yards allowed, 4th rush yards allowed and 3rd in yards per play. They turned Aaron Rodgers over twice last week and still managed to get the win despite C.J. Stroud turning the ball over three times.

• Houston generated a -33.4 EPA, the lowest of any playof defense in the last 10 years.
• Houston now has 3 of the top 4 defenses of the last decade (*per EPA).
• Teams entering the Wild Card/Divisional Round allowing <17 PPG are 38-21 SU and 35-24 ATS. As a dog in this situation, teams are 14-12SU and18-8 ATS.

C.J. Stroud was bad last week. He completed 65.6% of his passes for 250 yards and a touchdown; but also had an interceptions and 2 fumbles lost. Stroud had 5 total fumbles in the game, luckily only giving up two. Stroud's played in five playoff games now, making it out of the Wild Card Round every single year, but falling in the Divisional Round.

• The Texans have won 10 games in a row coming into the Divisional Round, longest win streak of all playoff teams
• When a team's listed as the underdog coming off a 10+ game win streak, entering a playoff game; that team is 0-4 since 2000
• The Texans are 0-6 SU in franchise history, in the Divisional Round. Stroud is undefeated in the Wild Card but 0-2 in the Divisional round.

Drake 'Drake Maye' Maye

The Patriots have a ton of outstanding tradition and history in the postseason. That being said, this roster is completely different. Tom Brady retired years ago, Gronkowski's doing TV/Podcasts and Bill Bellichick's on the sideline for North Carolina.

This will be Drake Maye's first ever NFL Playoff game and Head Coach Mike Vrabel's first as coach for the New England Patriots.

• Maye is 11-0 SU as a favorite of 3-points or more, 9-2 ATS. Average margin of victory: 16.6 PPG
• Maye became just the 26th QB ever to win their first playoff start, with those same guys going 7-16 SU in the game following.
• Teams coming off a win in the playoffs, in which they scored fewer than 20 points, have gone 4-9 SU in the following game.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears

It's Always Sunny in…Los Angeles

The Los Angeles Rams have the best offense in football and it's not even close. The team ranks 1st in points, 1st in first downs, 1st in pass yards, 2nd in yards per play and 7th in both redzone efficiency and rush yards per game. The team's offense has been outstanding and the defense has been just as good. The Rams rank 10th in point allowed, 3rd in opponent redzone efficiency and 6th sacks.

• Under Head Coach Sean McVay, the Rams have gone 10-5 SU and 10-3-2 ATS in the game directly following a game in which they gave up 30+ points. 8-1 ATS in the last nine games in this spot.

Los Angeles had a chance at top spot in the conference but a blown 16-point lead ruined all of that for them. Now they travel to Chicago for their second straight road game, looking to still make an impact despite the ugly weather.

• Since 2003, 13 dome teams have played outdoors on the road in sub-30 weather. The road team's gone 2-11 SU in those 13 games, covering the spread in 5 of the 8 games.

Matt Stafford's been amazing for the Rams, having an MVP caliber year. He's averaging 276.9 pass yards per game this year with 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He threw for 305 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception in last weeks win.

• Stafford's thrown for 300+ passing yards in four straight road playoff games, NFL record.
• Stafford's started 11 playoff games in his career, 6-5 SU and ATS. Of the 11 games, he's been favored just 4 times. Stafford is 4-0 SU in those games

Matcha and Manicures

The Chicago Bears depend on two things to win games. Caleb Williams weaving magic in the fourth quarter and a defense that can force turnovers. Chicago ranks 1st in forced turovers, 1st in interceptions and finish the year with a +22 turnover differential.

• In the Super Bowl era, 26 teams have finished with a turnover differential of +22, only four have made the Super Bowl
• The Bears came back from down 18 points last week against the Packers. In the SB era, we've had 10 teams complete 18-point combacks and only 3 have gone on to win the next game.

With this Bears team making the playoffs for the first time in a long time, there wasn't a ton of history/trends to talk about. This year's Bears team is different and the guy on the sideline is the biggest reason why.

Looking for More?

More NFL News

NFL Betting News

NFL Free Agency Report Cards: Grading the Winners & Losers Around the League

Varun Sharma Tue Mar 10 2026

NFL Betting News

NFL QB Futures Odds: Week 1 Starters & Next Team Markets

Danny Burke Sun Mar 8 2026

NFL Betting News

2026 NFL Off-Season | 4 Big Questions & Storylines Entering Next Year

Varun Sharma Fri Feb 20 2026

NFL Betting News

Ranking the Best NFL Coaching Hires of the 2026 Offseason: Who Moved the Needle?

Danny Burke Wed Feb 18 2026

Follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce for all my picks and sports takes you didn't ask for! Follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks, and news!

Looking for a great promo for a new sportsbook? Check out our reviews of the best sportsbooks.