This week’s NFL DFS slate is really interesting, with a lot of lower totals on the board outside of the obvious best games on the slate. There are a few clear value points that we will get into, and there is also a lot of game theory involved with playing both GPPs and cash games this week.
I expect Russell Wilson to be the chalk here. Wilson has been very consistent and just really good all season, and against a pass-funnel defense in Tampa Bay, I would expect that to continue. However, I think that getting away from Wilson in GPPs and even cash is my preferred strategy this week.
While Wilson is a great play on the surface, the biggest thing on this slate is that we do not have a ton of massive upside. Guys like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray are not in the player pool this week, and this means that there is less overall upside to be had at the QB position because there are not a ton of running QBs that could break the slate.
With that being the case, I like moving down to four different options in cash and GPPs based on your level of risk tolerance and lineup build. Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Kyle Allen, and Matt Moore (if Patrick Mahomes sits) are all solid plays for me this week, and I will likely be using a lot of all four because I like their stack options and their ability to flash relative to their price.
Christian McCaffrey is the best player on the slate from a raw projection, and I find that pretty hard to argue at this point. He is incredibly expensive, though, and he will likely require a huge score to win GPPs this week. I love McCaffrey in cash, but I may lean towards the Panthers’ passing attack in GPPs as stack options.
My favorite play on the week is Jaylen Samuels, assuming that James Conner is out. I expect Conner to sit this one out, and this would be another great example of just plugging in the Steelers’ No. 1 back and smashing value at his price. If Samuels is the starter, he will be my most-owned player.
If you want to pivot or if you want to jam in studs, Mark Walton is playing a bad Jets team and should get the start for the Dolphins again this week. Walton doesn’t project to be efficient, but he does project for more than enough volume.
The top end at wide receiver is not great this week, and I find myself trying to save a bit of money unless I need to play a receiver with my QB. Tyler Lockett is a great pairing with Wilson, and both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are great options to pair with Winston in that same game.
If I travel down the board, I really like Buffalo’s John Brown this weekend. Brown has seen consistent target volume, and his big-play potential makes him great in GPPS as well.
If you are looking to save at receiver, let’s look at Curtis Samuel against Tennessee. Samuel hasn’t had a bunch of huge games this season, but the volume is there in a lot of different ways, and he is just WAY too cheap on DK, especially given his volume in a solid offense.
I like Travis Kelce against what most see as a super tough matchup. While this isn’t a great matchup, I like attacking Minnesota with shorter and more consistent routes, which is something that Kelce can do well in this offense.
If you want to take a few more risks, I really like Cameron Brate again after disappointing last week. Brate is now without OJ Howard, and I expect to see him get more looks than he did last week, where he already got six targets.