New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers Preview & Picks (1/11)
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Sun Jan 11, 2026, 3:01 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The Sunday Night Football matchup in the NFL Wild Card round features Drake Maye and the Patriots hosting Justin Herbert and the Chargers.
New England opened as a 3.5-point favorite and remains there, while the total is hovering between 45.5 and 46.5.
The forecast at Foxborough calls for low temperatures around 30 degrees with double-digit winds.
Can the team from Los Angeles handle the cross-country trip into frigid conditions, or will the potential league MVP defend his home turf? Below, I'll break down how I expect this game to play out in my New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers preview and picks.
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New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers Preview & Picks
Can Drake Maye claim his first playoff victory over the Chargers on Sunday Night?
Patriots vs Chargers Preview
With a full season sample size to work from, we have a clear idea of what to expect from both teams on offense and defense.
The biggest discrepancy between these two comes on the offensive side of the ball, where the Patriots boast the league's top-ranked unit in EPA per play. Maye and company also sit fourth in success rate. Conversely, the Chargers rank 24th in EPA per play and 20th in success rate.
Justin Herbert has had his moments, but injuries to himself, his backfield and his offensive line have led to some inconsistency, and I worry we could see more of that in this heightened spot.
Where Los Angeles does hold an edge is on defense. The Chargers finished the regular season ranking fifth in success rate allowed and sixth in EPA per play allowed. New England trails in those areas, sitting 18th in success rate allowed and 11th in EPA per play allowed.
One major flaw the Patriots defense has shown all season is in the red zone. They rank 30th in red-zone efficiency, allowing touchdowns on 67.5% of opponent trips inside the 20-yard line. The encouraging sign is that they've tightened up recently, improving that rate to 37.5% over their past three games.
Patriots vs Chargers Picks
Danny's Bet: Patriots -3.5 (-110)
Through the highs and lows, I've always been a supporter of Justin Herbert. He gets a bad rap because people claim excuses are constantly made for him, particularly when it comes to his postseason shortcomings. In reality, many of those excuses are valid both in the past and for this year. Sure, he has a strong head coach and solid surrounding talent, but his offensive line has been banged up all season, and he underwent surgery on his non-throwing hand several weeks ago. This isn't a fade of Justin Herbert based on past postseason failures, but a reflection of the Chargers' current circumstances.
There have been too many moments of doubt from this Chargers team that I think will inevitably resurface on Sunday. They cannot afford to play from behind in this game, which means their defense has to be nearly perfect. Drake Maye and this Patriots offense have been operating at an elite level, and I don't expect them to slow down, even against a top-tier Los Angeles defense.
One of the more underrated improvements for this prolific Patriots offense has been its run game. Earlier in the season, New England fielded one of the more inefficient backfields in the league, but that has changed recently with rookie TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson both finding their stride.
Henderson is coming off a two-touchdown performance against the Dolphins last week, following an 82-yard outing versus the Jets the week prior. He averaged over four yards per carry in both games.
As for Stevenson, this is a player who had struggled with ball security and overall consistency for quite a while. Over his last four games, however, he's averaged 9.8 yards per carry, highlighted by a 131-yard performance on just seven attempts last week in Miami. He's totaled four rushing touchdowns and added two more through the air during that stretch. Stevenson is peaking at the perfect time and has become a vital piece of this offense.
Expect New England's offense to continue moving the ball at will, while the Chargers inevitably shoot themselves in the foot and dig a hole that proves too difficult to climb out of.
Best Bet: Patriots -3.5 (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
NFL Record: 102-85-1 (+6.81 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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