Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Rams: NFL Predictions, Odds & Best Bets
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Mon Nov 11, 2024, 3:41 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Monday Night Football rolls around on the calendar once again tonight as the Los Angeles Rams host the Miami Dolphins at SoFi Stadium. These teams are trending in two opposite directions at the moment. The Dolphins are just 2-6 this season, rank last in the AFC East, and have lost 3 straight games. Tua has been back for two weeks now, and Miami has lost a couple of heartbreakers, losing 28-27 against Arizona and 30-27 against Buffalo. The offense certainly improves with Tua under center, scoring just 10 points per game in the four he sat out.
Will his leadership be enough to take down a red hot Rams team?
Los Angeles is 4-4 on the year, winning three straight games. They are also 3-1 at home, losing to Green Bay in Week 5 by just 5 points. With a healthy squad, the Rams are dangerous. Kyren Williams is running for 75 yards on the ground per contest, Cooper Kupp has 16 catches on 22 targets for 155 yards and a TD in his L2 games, and Puka Nacua has 8 catches for 117 yards since returning from injury. While the defense might not be as good as they have been in years past, they are doing whatever they need to get the job done. But can they slow down Miami's offense?
Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Rams: Monday Night Football at SoFi
Kupp has seen quite the workload since returning from injury
Matchup Information – Dolphins vs Rams
- Venue & Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)
- Date: Monday, November 11th, 2024
- Kick Off: 8:15pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Betting Odds
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Spread
- Dolphins +2.5 (-105)
- Rams -2.5 (-115)
Money Line
- Dolphins +125
- Rams -145
Total
- Over 48 (-110)
- Under 48 (-110)
Will Tua Find a Way to Win in Primetime?
Can Tua and the Dolphins take down the Rams on the road?
When you face Tua and the Dolphins, you are going to need to score points. They've put up 27 points in each of the past two games with him back under center, and need a win badly. While the AFC East title is out of the question, Miami could still find a way to sneak into the playoffs, however that starts with a big road win tonight. But will the Rams be able to score enough?
Los Angeles has only scored 30 points in a game once this season, a couple weeks ago in a win against the Vikings. They've been held to 20 or less in 5/8 games this season and I'm sure will rely heavily on their defense to slow down the Dolphins. While LA does give up over 24 points per game over the course of the season, that number is down to just 18 over the past few wins. However, my gut is telling me to back the Dolphins.
Mathematically, they are not eliminated from playoff contention yet. The Dolphins play in Green Bay and Houston, while also hosting the 49ers. They need every win they can get, and against the Rams on the road is perfect place to steal one. For plus money, I am extremely close to taking the Dolphins to the counter, but instead I'm going to pivot towards a player prop.
Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Rams Best Bets
Back Mostert to see plenty of touches tonight
Dolphins vs Rams Prediction: Dolphins Win, Over 48
Best Bet: Raheem Mostert Over 7.5 Rush Attempts (-130) Bovada
Just 8 touches is all we need from Mostert, a number he has cleared in 4/5 games this season. He's cleared this line in 4 straight games since returning from injury, and I am not worried about him having so split carries with Achane, the number is too low regardless. Mostert saw 10 touches while Achane had 12 last week, and even Jaylen Wright was thrown in the mix with 6 carries.
Even with Mostert being the RB2 on the depth chart, he only sees a few less touches than Achane. He's running for 4 yards per carry this season with 2 TDs and over 200 rushing yards in just 5 games. In a game I see the Dolphins winning, I think both RBs will have tons of opportunities to carry to ball, resulting in at least 8 carries for Mostert tonight.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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