Kate’s Prop Shop: The Best Props for Week 17 in the NFL
Written by: Kate Constable
Published: Sat Dec 27, 2025, 1:00 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
nfl
Week 16 was a full-blown disaster, finishing 0–3 with just about everything that could go wrong doing exactly that. Jahmyr Gibbs was oddly phased out of the game plan, finishing with just seven carries for two yards, while Mike Evans was essentially erased, hauling in only nine yards on five catches. Devon Achane actually did his part, but we still came up painfully short, missing the over by 1.5 yards.
With only two weeks left in the regular season, it's time to get back on track! Our current record sits at 24-18.
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Panthers RB Rico Dowdle Under 46.5 Rushing Yards vs. Seahawks (Lucky Rebel, -114)
Rico Dowdle had his moment in the middle of the season when Chuba Hubbard was sidelined, but that role has clearly disappeared. Over the last three weeks, Dowdle has played fewer than 60% of the snaps as the backfield has shifted firmly back in Hubbard's direction. The market has finally caught up, with his rushing prop dropping from the 60–70 yard range down to just 46.5, a clear reflection of his reduced workload. Even at this lower number, the matchup doesn't do him any favors. Seattle owns one of the best run defenses in the league, allowing a league-low 3.7 yards per carry. With limited volume and a tough front to run into, it's hard to see a realistic path for Dowdle to clear this number.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford Over 21.5 Passing Completions (Lucky Rebel, -110)
The game script suggests the Rams should be comfortably ahead as 7.5-point favorites against the Falcons on Monday night, but that doesn't necessarily mean Stafford is going to take his foot off the gas. Even when playing with a lead, Sean McVay has shown he's more than willing to keep the offense aggressive, especially with Stafford in rhythm. Stafford remains firmly in the MVP conversation, and these nationally televised spots are prime opportunities to keep building that résumé. Atlanta's defense has also been vulnerable to high-completion games, particularly against quick, timing-based passing attacks. Stafford should be asked to throw enough to clear this number comfortably.
Texans RB Wood Marks Under 51.5 Rushing Yards vs. Chargers (Lucky Rebel, -110)
Woody Marks returns this week after missing Week 16 with an ankle injury, but this feels like a tough spot to expect a full workload or a big rushing day. Since Marks went down in Week 15, Jawhar Jordan has carved out a decent role in the backfield, and Nick Chubb remains part of the rotation, creating a crowded carry split that caps Marks' upside. Even being active, it's hard to project him dominating touches coming off an injury. That concern is magnified by the matchup, as the Chargers have been excellent against the run, allowing just 103.8 rushing yards per game, the ninth-best mark in the league. Between the shared workload and a disciplined front that closes gaps quickly, Marks is more likely to grind out modest gains than threaten this number, making the under the right side.
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Kate is a Minnesota-born, Chicago-based sports broadcaster and betting analyst covering football and basketball across both the college and pro ranks. A host on the BetMGM Network (The Bettor Angle, BetMGM Gameday) and contributor at Betting News, she delivers smart, honest, and occasionally painful insight — usually while regretting her loyalty to the Bears and Timberwolves.
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