Kate’s Prop Shop: The Best Props for Divisional Round
Written by: Kate Constable
Published: Sat Jan 17, 2026, 12:00 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
nfl
We got hooked on Josh Allen's rushing prop last week, capping Wild Card Weekend with another frustrating 1–2 showing. Kenneth Gainwell ran into a brick wall against Houston's dominant defense, while Saquon Barkley clearing 18.5 rushing attempts was our lone bright spot.
That pushes our season record to 27–24, which is closer to .500 than we'd like. The good news? With four divisional matchups on the slate this weekend, it's a perfect spot to regroup and start stacking wins again.
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49ers TD Jake Tonges O35.5 Receiving Yards vs. Seahawks (Lucky Rebel, -110)
With George Kittle sidelined, Jake Tonges slides into the TE1 role and his involvement in the passing game jumps significantly. In six games without Kittle, Tonges has averaged nearly five receptions and 44.8 receiving yards per game, clearing this number comfortably on usage alone. This isn't empty volume either, with Kyle Shanahan trusting him on early downs and in chain-moving situations, not just as a dump-off option. Kittle's absence also impacts the run game, particularly as a blocker, and if Christian McCaffrey is limited or the ground game stalls at all, the 49ers will need secondary pass catchers to step up. That's where Tonges comes in.
Rams WR Puka Nacua ATTD vs. Bears (Lucky Rebel, -110)
Puka Nacua has firmly established himself as Matthew Stafford's go-to weapon, which is exactly why his receiving yard prop is sitting at 99.5 yards. Even with cold conditions expected in Chicago, oddsmakers are still projecting a big day for Nacua. When the Rams need a play, especially in high-leverage moments, the ball finds No. 12. While Davante Adams has technically been L.A.'s top red-zone target this season, in this big a game with a healthy total, the Rams aren't likely to settle for just one trip to the end zone. Nacua has scored in four straight games with six total TDs during that stretch. If the Rams are going to take care of business on Sunday, it's hard to envision a scenario where Nacua doesn't play a major role in the scoring.
Bills WR Khalil Shakir O5.5 Receptions vs. Broncos (Lucky Rebel, -120)
Khalil Shakir is Josh Allen's most reliable target, especially in high-leverage situations. When Allen needs a safe throw, Shakir is the first read more often than not, and that trust shows up in consistent target volume week after week. The matchup sets up well, too. Shakir does most of his damage out of the slot, which is key against Denver, keeping him away from Patrick Surtain II. The slot is also an area the Broncos have struggled to defend, allowing the fifth-highest target rate to slot receivers, making this a natural funnel spot for Buffalo's passing game.
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Kate is a Minnesota-born, Chicago-based sports broadcaster and betting analyst covering football and basketball across both the college and pro ranks. A host on the BetMGM Network (The Bettor Angle, BetMGM Gameday) and contributor at Betting News, she delivers smart, honest, and occasionally painful insight — usually while regretting her loyalty to the Bears and Timberwolves.
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