Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons: Sunday Night Football Odds & Best Bets (9/22)

If you're like me, you've been "waiting all day for Sunday Night" like Carrie Underwood proudly proclaims every weekend. Lucky for us, we have a great matchup in store on NBC to wrap up a wild football weekend. Down in Atlanta, the Falcons are hosting the Kansas City Chiefs for some Primetime Kirk Cousins action.

Cousins and the Falcons are coming off an incredible comeback victory on Primetime as it is, beating the Eagles 22-21 on Monday Night. While they did have a slightly shorter week to prepare for Kansas City, the offense certainly came alive on the road in Philly. Everyone had high expectations for this Falcons team, and after losing at home to Pittsburgh in Week 1, they needed to bounce back, and boy they did in a big way. Will they be able to ride that momentum into another home game in front of a national crowd?

As for Kansas City, the 2-0 defending Super Bowl Champions are a PI call and a smaller shoe size away from being 0-2. Yet somehow, Patrick Mahomes and company have survived once again. This will not be an easy game down in Atlanta facing a very solid Falcons defense that has only allowed 2 touchdowns this season. Will the extra 24 hours of rest come into play and impact Atlanta's secondary? And will we see their offense clicking like they were late in the game on Monday?

Let's dive in and find our best bets in this matchup!

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons: Sunday Night Football

Matchup Information – Chiefs vs Falcons

• Venue & Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
• Date: Sunday, September 22nd, 2024
• Kick Off: 8:20pm Eastern
• Broadcast: NBC/Peacock

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Chiefs -3 (-114)
• Falcons +3 (-106)

Money Line

• Chiefs -162
• Falcons +142

Total

• Over 46.5 (-110)
• Under 46.5 (-110)

Can Chiefs Survive on the Road?

The biggest headline surrounding this game will be the absence of number 10. Isiah Pacheco has a broken fibula and will miss several weeks for the Chiefs. They made waves by signing Kareem Hunt for a reunion in Kansas City, however it is reported that he will not suit up on Sunday against the Falcons. Instead, the Chiefs will roll out undrafted rookie Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, and Keaontay Ingram who was promoted from the practice squad this week. Mahomes will certainly miss Pacheco on the ground, as the Falcons secondary is certainly their strength. Bur regardless, he's done more with less before.

Kir Cousins looked way different in Week 2. He was mobile, he didn't miss receivers, and the offense was looking rock solid. Cousins has done a great job of getting everyone involved, as his Top 5 weapons all have 4+ catches and 10+ targets, minus Kyle Pitts who has caught 6 of his 7 targets this season. Ultimately, when the Falcons spread the ball, using all of their skill players, they could be tough to beat. We saw how easily they drove down the field in 58 seconds on Monday Night. But we all know, in order to beat the Chiefs, you are going to need to score.

Mahomes and His Weapons

Kansas City is scoring 26.5 points per game this season, and while no Pacheco makes them slightly one dimensional, they still have Mahomes at QB. The offense is going to be just fine. Even though the Falcons have held both QBs they've faced to under 200 yards, 15 is a different animal. And you his most prolific runner is gone and won't be truly replaced until next week. I expect Mahomes to air it out plenty, as the Chiefs will not rely on Steele or Perine to get too many touches. With this in mind, the Falcons secondary can hold their own, and I think they could make it hard on Mahomes.

As for the Falcons' offense, Bijan is running for over 5 yards per carry, London and Pitts have combined for 14 catches, 100+ yards and 2 TDs, and Mooney and McCloud III are actually your 2 leading receivers in terms of yardage. They are looking fine when playing a defense that isn't one of the best in the NFL. However, they might be sluggish against Kansas City who could disrupt Kirk, so my coins will be backing both defenses.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons Best Bets

Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction: Chiefs Win, Falcons Cover, Under 46.5

Best Bet: KC/ATL Under 46.5 (-110) BetOnline

We are backing the Primetime Under trend for this matchup, as I think both defenses are highly underrated. They've forced 4 Turnovers combined this season so far, and Atlanta is giving up less than 20 points per game. The Falcons should utilize their tandem of running backs heavily in this game. With Robinson and Tyler Allgeier ready to roll, Atlanta could chew the clock all game long, leaving Mahomes on the sidelines. He can't beat you if he's not on the field, and this would also give the Falcons defense plenty of rest in between series.

While the Chiefs are certainly going to find ways to score, Atlanta gave up just 2 red zone trips at home to the Steelers, and are only allowing TDs on 28.6% of opponent's trips to the red zone. The Falcons are capable of forcing Butker to kick some field goals, which leads me to my favorite prop in this game.

Bonus Bet: Chiefs Over 1.5 Field Goals (-130) Bovada

Now, obviously this isn't just a Harrison Butker prop. The book is listing it as the Chiefs team, so even though we know Butker will be the one knocking them down, if someone else knocks one through the uprights, it will still count. Being in a dome makes me love this prop even more, as he proved he could make a 50+ yarder with ease outside, imagine if Andy Reid tries one from 60+ in this game. This same prop with Butker specified is priced at -135 to -145 around the market anyways, so not only are we getting 5 to 15 cents of value, we also get a pillow if he gets hurt and someone else kicks.

The Chiefs only score TDs on 40% of their trips to the red zone this year, and on the road that number could certainly drop. Backing Butker to get used in this scenario is a no brainer, and I have no problem paying this juice.

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