Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Preview & Predictions (1/4)
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Fri Jan 02, 2026, 7:22 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
nfl
This Week 18 AFC West showdown had the makings of a marquee matchup, but after the Los Angeles Chargers dropped last week's game against the Houston Texans, they're now only jockeying for positioning between the fifth and seventh seed. It also appears the Chargers are treating this week as a pseudo-bye, prioritizing rest ahead of the postseason and accepting wherever the standings ultimately shake out.
Meanwhile, the stakes are far higher for the Denver Broncos. A win would lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, securing a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
So in the Mile High City, we'll see a battle between Bo Nix and Denver's starting unit against backup quarterback Trey Lance and a handful of reserves.
Let's explore this matchup further in my Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers preview and picks.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
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Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Preview & Predictions
Will Bo Nix lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC for Denver on Sunday?
Broncos vs Chargers Preview
The 25-year-old Trey Lance hasn't played a snap since November 30, when he relieved a banged-up Justin Herbert in a 31–14 win. In that appearance, Lance completed just one pass for nine yards and scrambled four times for four yards.
Prior to that outing, he made two other brief appearances against the Washington Commanders and Jacksonville Jaguars, completing six of 12 pass attempts for a combined 81 yards.
There's certainly no expectation for Trey Lance to go out and earn a win on Sunday, and that expectation shrinks even further when you consider the defense he'll be facing. Lance is set to throw against a Broncos defense that ranks first in success rate allowed and 10th in EPA per play.
He'll be tasked with moving the ball against that group without the Chargers' starting running back, Omarion Hampton, who will not play in this game. Backup Kimani Vidal did return to practice this week.
On the other side, Bo Nix and his group will look to control this game from start to finish – something they haven't consistently done this season, despite sitting atop the AFC.
Among Denver's 13 wins this season, only two have been decided by more than one score. Their average margin of victory is 7.1 points. This will surely come back to haunt them in the postseason, but in a matchup against backups, they should be fine.
That said, I'm still not interested in laying 12.5 points or more with Denver. This remains an unstable team, and that's a massive number in any game – especially against a divisional opponent and in a lookahead position to the postseason.
Oddsmakers originally opened this game with Denver as seven-point favorites, but once it was announced how Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh planned to approach the game, the line quickly jumped into double digits. The total has since dropped from 39 to 37.5.
Broncos vs Chargers Predictions
Obviously, I expect Denver to walk away with a win and, in doing so, lock up the top spot in the AFC along with a first-round bye. That said, I have no interest in laying a massive number or getting involved with an extremely low total in a game filled with unknowns.
Instead, the prop market is where I see the most appeal. RJ Harvey's rushing yards prop, sitting around 54.5, or his anytime touchdown at -125, both stand out as reasonable options. I'd also consider looking toward Bo Nix unders, as Denver will likely lean on the ground game to control possessions, bleed the clock and avoid putting Nix in unnecessary situations.
However, these are all leans rather than official plays, especially with the possibility that Denver could pull starters early and some uncertainty surrounding the exact game plan for Nix.
This game should be enjoyable for Broncos fans, but beyond that, there isn't much interest to be found.
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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