Consensus Picks for Every Game in the NFL Wild-Card Round: Where Do I Align with the Consensus?

Sweatpant Jesus

Well, we are finally here.

One of the best weekends of the entire NFL season.

Wildcard Weekend kicks off on Saturday and continues all the way through to Sunday Night Football before concluding on Monday Night Football.

6 games. 3 winners to get one step closer to a trip to the Super Bowl and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

Its gonna be a fantastic weekend of Football.

Keep reading for game information and analysis for each game and a Consensus pick.

I will then give you MY Best Bet for each game to help you make the Best Bets for an exciting weekend of Playoff Football!

Ok, let’s dive in…

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Seattle Seahawks vs. San Fransisco 49ers

  • Game Date and Time: Saturday, January 14th, 2023. 4:00PM EST
  • Game Location: Levi’s Stadium. Santa Clara, California
  • Where to Watch: Fox/NFL Plus


  • Seahawks +10 (-110)
  • 49ers -10 (-110)


  • Seahawks (+380)
  • 49ers (-500)


  • Over 42 (-110)
  • Under 42 (-110)

Consensus Pick of the Game

Over 42 (-110)

In this affair between two NFC West teams coming together for the 3rd time this season, there was 100% consensus from the 10 expert picks on the Over 42. There is also 68% of the Public on the Over as well so the Experts and the Public agree.

In the 2 matchups this season, they both went under and I am more inclined to think that this game could sneak under the total.

I would rather bet on a close game between these two division rivals.

The 49ers are my favorite team out of the NFC to go the distance all the way to the Super Bowl, but the Seahawks have playmakers on both sides of the ball to keep this close.

I like the Seahawks to cover and at least hang around and keep it within striking distance. But the Niners should pull out this victory at home.

My Best Bet

Seahawks +9.5 (-110)

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Game Date and Time: Saturday, January 14th, 2023. 7:00pm EST
  • Game Location: TIAA Bank Field Jacksonville, Florida
  • Where to Watch: NBC/NFL Plus


  • Chargers -2.5 (-110)
  • Jaguars +2.5 (-110)


  • Chargers (-135)
  • Jaguars (+115)


  • Over 47.5 (-110)
  • Under 47.5 (-110)

Consensus Pick of the Game

Jaguars +2.5 (-110)

With 86% of the Experts in agreement on the Jags covering, this was the overall favorite from the first AFC game of the weekend. Not too surprised that the Jags are a trendy dog in this spot.

They are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, and get an inconsistent Chargers team at home in their first playoff appearance since 2017.

The Jaguars are also on a 5 game winning streak coming into this game, their best such streak in 17 years.

It will be Trevor Lawrence vs Justin Herbert all game long and it is going to be a hell of a game.

I am on the other side of this one, though and I love the Chargers.

I watched the Jaguars team a lot the last month of the season, and in the play-in game against my Tennessee Titans.

The Jaguars barely scraped by the battered Titans, and if anything, got lucky to win that game.

Their defense has a good front 7 but is very suspect on the back end, which will be a problem against one of the most lethal arms in the NFL.

I know Mike Williams is trending towards being out, which is a big miss for the Chargers, but they still have plenty of firepower to pick this Jags secondary apart, chunk by chunk.

Give me the Chargers to cover and get a big playoff win on the road!

My Best Bet

Chargers -2.5 (-110)

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

  • Game Date and Time: Sunday, January 15th, 2023. 1:00pm EST
  • Game Location: HighPark Stadium Orchard Park, New York
  • Where to Watch: CBS/NFL Plus


  • Dolphins +13.5 (-110)
  • Bills -13.5 (-110)


  • Dolphins (+600)
  • Bills (-900)


  • Over 43.5 (-110)
  • Under 43.5 (-110)

Consensus Pick of the Game

Dolphins +13.5 (-110)

This is definitely not a high percentage favorite here, at only 63% of experts rolling with the Dolphins to cover. Which should be telling to you.

This is obviously an incredibly high spread for a playoff game but given that the Dolphins are playing their third string QB in Skyler Thompson against one of the best teams in the AFC on the road…it makes a bit more sense.

It is hard to see a way where the Dolphins stick around in this one. The Bills are surely going to come out on absolute fire, at home, against their AFC East rivals and dominate them in every phase of the game.

Give me the better QB, the better roster, at home, to get a big win at home and cover the spread.

My Best Bet

Bills -13.5 (-110)

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

  • Game Date and Time: Sunday, January 15th, 2023. 4:30pm EST
  • Game Location: U.S. Bank Stadium. Minneapolis, Minnesota
  • Where to Watch: FOX/NFL Plus


  • Giants+3 (-110)
  • Vikings -3 (-110)


  • Giants (+140)
  • Vikings (-165)


  • Over 48 (-110)
  • Under 48 (-110)

Consensus Pick of the Game

Vikings -3 (-110)

At 63%. there isn’t truly a clear cut consensus here. Leaning with the Vikings makes sense, as they are at home and really are the better team on paper.

The Vikings were led this season by Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson, as Jefferson established himself as the best wide receiver in the NFL with 128 catches, 1,809 Yards and 8 touchdowns.

The Giants will have the task of stopping this Vikings offense on the road on Sunday and with their surging pass rush, they have the recipe to hurry Kirk Cousins and make life difficult for the Vikings offense.

If QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley can take advantage on offense for the Giants, this game will definitely stay close, with it possibly coming down to the last possession or even the last kick of the game.

I love the Giants to cover the spread in this one, and are one of my favorite underdogs to grab a win on the road and the 1st round upset.

My Best Bet

Giants +3 (-110)

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

  • Game Date and Time: Sunday, January 15th, 2023. 8:15pm EST
  • Game Location: Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Where to Watch: NBC/NFL Plus


  • Ravens +9.5 (-110)
  • Bengals -9.5 (-110)


  • Ravens (+360)
  • Bengals (-500)


  • Over 40.5 (-110)
  • Under 40.5 (-110)

Consensus Pick of the Game

Ravens +9.5 (-110)

The weekend concludes on Sunday Night Football with the battle of the AFC North rivals in Cincinnati.

All eyes have been on the status of MVP QB Lamar Jackson leading up to this one and it isn’t looking good for Ravens fans.

It is looking more and more likely that Jackson is not going to play yet again as he is still dealing with swelling in his injured Knee.

Without their main man for yet another week is huge for the Ravens and they have their work cut out for them against Joe Burrow and the surging Bengals.

The Consensus for this game is for a Ravens cover, but it is only a 63% consensus. Obviously the Ravens still have one of the best ground games in the league and a gritty defense, which will keep you around in almost any game.

This is an odd situation in a way as well as both of these teams just played last week, in the same stadium.

But this is not the ‘same stuff, different day’ mantra.

The Bengals took their foot off the gas in that game, as they were cruising and didn’t need to play all the way to the end and they still won 27-16.

I find it hard to see a way they stay around in this one as well, and could see Joe Burrow and Co. dominating from the opening kick all the way to the last kneel down.

My Best Bet

Bengals -9.5 (-110)

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Game Date and Time: Monday, January 16th, 2023. 8:15pm EST
  • Game Location: Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay, Florida.
  • Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN/NFL Plus


  • Cowboys -2.5 (-110)
  • Buccaneers +2.5 (-110)


  • Cowboys (-140)
  • Buccaneers (+120)


  • Over 45.5 (-110)
  • Under 45.5 (-110)

Consensus Pick of the Game

Buccaneers +2.5 (-110)

Wild Card Weekend concludes on Monday Night Football in possibly the best matchup of the weekend as Tom Brady and the Bucs welcome Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to Tampa Bay.

The Consensus Pick is riding with the Bucs to cover the 2.5 points, but only 57% of the Experts agree on this one.

The Cowboys are the better overall team, on paper, with the better record and should take care of business.

But this is about Tom Brady. In the playoffs. At home.

Look at this…

And this…

I am riding with Brady here. The Cowboys are recently notorious for choking under pressure in the playoffs and until proven otherwise, I am going to bet on that.

Give me one of the clutchest athletes in history to get the job done at home and cover the spread.

They probably win outright as well. But I will take the points.

My Best Bet

Buccaneers +2.5 (-110)

Ok that’s it! Enjoy Wild Card Weekend…it should be a good one 🙂

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Sweatpant Jesus

Daniel Collins is a sports fanatic and data-driven bettor. He has expertise in the NFL, NBA, and NHL. He’s a big fan of the Titans #titanup, Predators #predators and Arsenal #coyg. If he isn’t watching, betting on or writing about sports, he loves the outdoors, traveling, strong coffee and delicious food. You can follow him on Twitter @SweatpantJesus. Peace and Love

Daniel Collins is a sports fanatic and data-driven bettor. He has expertise in the NFL, NBA, and NHL. He’s a big fan of the Titans #titanup, Predators #predators and Arsenal #coyg. If he isn’t watching, betting on or writing about sports, he loves the outdoors, traveling, strong coffee and delicious food. You can follow him on Twitter @SweatpantJesus. Peace and Love