Consensus Picks for Every NFL Divisional Round Game: Where I Agree…and Where I Don’t

Sweatpant Jesus

The Divisional Round is here.

8 teams go to battle to get one step closer to the ultimate goal of lifting a Lombardi trophy as Super Bowl champions.

With each game now having the highest of stakes, let’s dive into each game and give you the best bet you can make.

Here is a breakdown of each game and the consensus pick from the different sites we aggregate picks from here on Betting News.

For each game, I will give you my best bet as well and if it lines up with the consensus pick.

Spoiler Alert: I don’t agree with the consensus more often than not.

And if I disagree, I will break down why.

Let’s have some fun.


Caesars Sportsbook logo
Up To $1,250 On Caesars
FanDuel Sportsbook logo
No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000
Betrivers Sportsbook logo
2nd Chance $500 Bet Offer
BetMGM Sportsbook logo
$1,000 Paid Back Bonus

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

  • Game Date and Time: Saturday, January 21st, 2023. 4:30pm EST
  • Game Location: Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City, Missouri.
  • Where to Watch: NBC/NFL Plus


  • Jaguars +9(-110)
  • Chiefs -9 (-110)


  • Jaguars (+400)
  • Chiefs (-450)


  • Over 52.5 (-110)
  • Under 52.5 (-110)

Consensus Pick

Jaguars +9.5 (-112)

It has truly been a sensational run by the Jaguars.

They clawed their way back into the AFC South race by winning 4 straight games.

Then, they won their 5th straight to clinch the AFC South and go to the post season.

THEN, they won their 6th straight with a miraculous 27 point comeback last week against the Chargers.


The Jaguars are riding incredibly high right now, and a lot of it could be attributed to the play of QB Trevor Lawrence. I mean, he has been sensational.

But for me, this has been a masterclass in coaching by Head Coach Doug Peterson.

He has game in and game out rallied the troops, never been too high or too low, and has consistently made the right calls in every game.

It will be fun to see how he prepares his Jaguars team to try and upset the mighty Chiefs in a Saturday afternoon slugfest.

The Jaguars have been on an incredible run. As a fan of the Tennesee Titans, I have to tip my hat to what they have accomplished this season and give credit where credit is due.

But I think their run comes to an end on Saturday.

One of the biggest weaknesses of this Jaguars team is the secondary.

While it was amazing what they did last week to come back and beat the Chargers, their defense got exposed by Justin Herbert and the Chargers passing attack.

HC Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are going to come out and look to expose the Jags on the back end all game long and it will be too much for the Jaguars to handle.

Give me the Chiefs to cover and move on to the AFC Championship game, in style.

My Best Bet

Chiefs -9 (-110)

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

  • Game Date and Time: Saturday, January 21st, 2023. 8:30pm EST
  • Game Location: Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
  • Where to Watch: FOX/NFL Plus


  • Giants +7.5(-110)
  • Eagles -7.5 (-110)


  • Giants (+290)
  • Eagles (-365)


  • Over 48 (-110)
  • Under 48 (-110)

Consensus Pick

Eagles -7.5 (-110)

The Eagles finished the season with an NFC best record of 14-3 and have one of, if not the best, rosters in the NFL.

Offseason acquisition WR AJ Brown took their offense to a whole new level, and lifted the play of QB Jalen Hurts and fellow WR Devonta Smith.

He was sensational in this dominant offense and will be a handful yet again on Saturday night.

QB Jalen Hurts was banged up to end the regular season but is off the injury report and is ready to go.

The Eagles securing the Number 1 seed was crucial for not only the obvious reasons, but to also give Hurts an extra week of rest.

He is ready to go and the MVP candidate will come out fired up on Saturday night to want to bury the Giants for the 3rd time this season and a chance to go to the NFC Championship game.

Hurts went into this season needing to prove himself to many (myself included) as a legit franchise QB and his play has silenced a lot of the critics.

If he leads the Eagles past the Giants and then secures the NFC crown on his way to a Super Bowl, those questions will be a figment of the past.

With so much on the line on Saturday night, in one of the most exciting matchups of the Divisional Round, who will come out on top?

I am going to keep this short and sweet.

The Giants are covering.

They might even win outright.

As I laid out above, I have bought in to what Brain Daboll, Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley and the Giants are selling.

The Eagles are dynamic. They have it all, and are probably the best overall team in football.

But I am going to ride with the underdogs here to cover and hang around in this one. I am not going to suggest betting the money line, but I will be honest in saying I will have a small financial investment in the Giants to win outright.

Purely for the vibes.

But my Best Bet is the Giants with the points. Be great, Danny Dimes.

My Best Bet

Giants +7.5 (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills

  • Game Date and Time: Sunday, January 22nd, 2023. 2:00 EST
  • Game Location: Highmark Stadium. Orchard Park, New York.
  • Where to Watch: CBS/NFL Plus/ Paramount Plus


  • Bengals +5.5(-110)
  • Bills-5.5 (-110)


  • Bengals (+200)
  • Bills (-240)


  • Over 49 (-110)
  • Under 49 (-110)

Consensus Pick

Bills -5.5 (-110)

This is the first pick that is totally split between our pool of experts and rightly so.

This is going to be a dog fight.

Two of the best, most physical teams going head to head in on Sunday will be as good as it gets.

On paper, the Bills have the superior roster and have had a fantastic season so the 5.5 point spread does make sense.

But with how things played out last week against a beaten up Dolphins team starting their 3rd string QB, I have some questions.

QB Josh Allen is capable of making THAT play at any moment but, how this week is different from last week, the Bengals have that guy too.

QB Joe Burrow has truly arrived and this game could be another check in the column of ‘Elite Top 5 QB in the League’ category if the Bengals can grab a big win in Orchard Park.

My opinion on this game has changed, not so much with the Bills winning, because I think they get it done.

But after what I saw from them last week, I think they allow the Bengals to hang around and cover the 5.5.

I am not going to predict the upset, but it would not surprise me whatsoever if the Bengals moved on to their 2nd AFC Championship game 2 years in a row.

My Best Bet

Bengals +5.5 (-110)

Dallas Cowboys vs San Fransisco 49ers

  • Game Date and Time: Sunday, January 22nd, 2023. 5:30 EST
  • Game Location: Levi’s Stadium. Santa Clara, California
  • Where to Watch: Fox/NFL Plus


  • Cowboys +3.5(-110)
  • Niners-3.5 (-110)


  • Cowboys (+165)
  • Niners (-200)


  • Over 46.5 (-110)
  • Under 46.5 (-110)

Consensus Pick

49ers -3.5 (-110)

Both games on Sunday are total splits for our experts, which means we should have a fun day of football ahead of us.

The Niners welcome the Cowboys to San Fran and while the experts are split on this one the same way they were on the Bills/Bengals game, I am not split.

The Niners have been my NFC Favorite since Week 10 and that has only gotten stronger as the season continued.

Now they are one step closer to a 2nd straight NFC championship game and I think they take advantage.

My pick here is 2 fold.

1. I love the Niners and think they are going to go all the way.

2. I don’t believe in the Cowboys.

Crazy analysis there but we all know what the Cowboys are capable of.

Can they look like the best team in the NFL, like they did last week against the Bucs?

Of course.

Can they lay an absolute dud and choke away the game like they did last year in the playoffs at home versus these Niners?

Of course.

I have been riding with the Niners thus far and I am not stopping now. Give me the Niners to cover and get one step closer to a Lombardi trophy.

My Best Bet

49ers -3.5 (-110)

Enjoy the Divisional Round this weekend! It’s gonna be fun.

Follow me on Twitter @SweatpantsJesus and @BN_Content for more props, sports news and overall vibes.

Also, I host AFTERNOON BETSPRESSO on Twitch every Thursday Afternoon to go over the slate of games and talk about my favorite bets with my fellow sports bettor and hockey sharp @WMMacMiller!

We want to hear your best plays as well and discuss the winning moves!

Go follow our Twitch page and give us a follow!

Come hang with me and find the value! Look forward to seeing you there! Thanks for stopping by and as always, Peace and Love.

Sweatpant Jesus

Daniel Collins is a sports fanatic and data-driven bettor. He has expertise in the NFL, NBA, and NHL. He’s a big fan of the Titans #titanup, Predators #predators and Arsenal #coyg. If he isn’t watching, betting on or writing about sports, he loves the outdoors, traveling, strong coffee and delicious food. You can follow him on Twitter @SweatpantJesus. Peace and Love

Daniel Collins is a sports fanatic and data-driven bettor. He has expertise in the NFL, NBA, and NHL. He’s a big fan of the Titans #titanup, Predators #predators and Arsenal #coyg. If he isn’t watching, betting on or writing about sports, he loves the outdoors, traveling, strong coffee and delicious food. You can follow him on Twitter @SweatpantJesus. Peace and Love