Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview & Picks (12/28): Bore in the AFC North
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sat Dec 27, 2025, 1:13 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
In Cleveland, Ohio, an AFC North showdown takes place between the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pittsburgh will be watching Saturday afternoon's Ravens–Packers matchup closely, as that result will determine whether their top spot in the division is already locked up. How might that outcome influence their approach against Cleveland?
We'll break that down and more in my Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers preview and picks.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
You can also browse our recommendations for the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview & Picks
Can Shedeur Sanders show signs of improvement on Sunday against the Steelers?
Browns vs Steelers Preview
Oddsmakers initially opened the Pittsburgh Steelers as high as -4.5 for this matchup, with the total sitting around 34.5. As of now, Pittsburgh has been bet down to a three-point favorite, while the total has dipped slightly to 34.
I'm handicapping this game as of Saturday morning under the assumption that the Green Bay Packers defeat the Baltimore Ravens. If that happens, the Steelers won't need a win against the Cleveland Browns to secure their position atop the division.
While Mike Tomlin has indicated he still plans to play his starters, that stance could easily change depending on Saturday's result. Pittsburgh will already be without its leading receiver, DK Metcalf, who is serving a two-game suspension following an incident with a fan during last week's game in Detroit.
Weather will also be a factor in Cleveland, with double-digit winds and a chance of rain in the forecast. It sets up the kind of sluggish, grind-it-out environment we're used to seeing when AFC rivals clash late in the season.
That combination – along with potential motivational uncertainty for Pittsburgh, poor weather conditions and Cleveland's limited offense – helps explain why this total is sitting so low.
Rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders has shown flashes, but overall has struggled. He's completing just 55% of his passes this season with a 6-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Steelers' secondary has been vulnerable at times, but this is a spot where they can look better than their season-long numbers suggest against a familiar opponent starting an inexperienced quarterback.
Cleveland's clear strength remains its defense. The Browns rank top-five in both EPA per play and success rate allowed, and that unit should show up regardless of how motivated Pittsburgh is offensively.
On the other side, Pittsburgh's offense has been average at best, leaning heavily on the run game to take pressure off their 42-year-old quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.
So where does all of this leave us from a betting perspective?
Browns vs Steelers Picks
Best Bet: 1st Half Under 18.5 (-130 at Lucky Rebel)
Like I mentioned earlier, whether or not the Pittsburgh Steelers go all-out in this game doesn't materially change the bet I'm targeting.
This is a division matchup featuring two subpar offenses and one legitimately strong defense. Even the team with the weaker defensive profile can look competent when it's facing an offense led by inconsistent quarterback play on the other side.
Layer in the poor weather conditions, the absence of Pittsburgh's top offensive weapon, and the general late-season AFC North slog, and it's easy to see why this game projects as an ugly, low-scoring affair – hence the total sitting at 34.
Rather than attacking the full-game under, though, I'm focusing on the first half.
This season, the Cleveland Browns are averaging just 9.3 first-half points per game, which ranks 27th in the league. Pittsburgh is scoring 12.4 points in the opening two quarters, good for 11th.
Defensively, the Steelers have been excellent early, allowing only 8.9 first-half points per game (4th overall), a number that has dipped to just 7.3 over their past three contests. Cleveland has also held up reasonably well, surrendering 11.1 first-half points per game (18th).
I prefer the first-half under more than the full-game total because I expect both teams to lean heavily on the run early, shortening the game and limiting possessions. Any chaos or urgency that forces teams to throw the ball should come later, not in the opening 30 minutes.
Across the market, a first-half total of 17 (-112) is available, along with 18.5 at a steeper -130 price. On Any Given Wager, I discussed playing under 17.5 when -125 was available, but that number has since disappeared.
At this point, I'm still comfortable laying the -130 to go under 18.5. There's nothing setting up for this game to be clean or efficient offensively. Even if Pittsburgh were fully motivated, this would still profile as a sloppy, grind-it-out contest.
Let's bank on that exact type of atmosphere unfolding in Cleveland.
Best Bet: 1st Half Under 18.5 (-130, at Lucky Rebel)
NFL Record: 92-78-1 (+4.80 units)
Still Didn't Get Your NFL Fix?
Follow me on X @dannyburke5 for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch to catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our Free Expert Picks for every major sports league.
More NFL News
NFL Betting News
NFL QB Futures Odds: Week 1 Starters & Next Team Markets
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News
Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.