The Bengals are 1-4 on the year, and the playoffs are looking less and less likely each week. They are coming off losing an absolute heartbreaking divisional matchup to the Ravens at home, and their one win this season comes against the Carolina Panthers. They nearly took down the Chiefs on the road, so they are certainly playing better away from home, but can they bring some fire tonight against the Giants?
New York is 2-3 on the season and are coming off a win against Seattle on the road. While the Giants are 2-1 on the road this season, they have lost both games at home, losing 28-6 to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, and 20-15 to the Cowboys in Week 4. New York will be missing Malik Nabers, who accounts for 31% of the teams receptions, 34% of their receiving yards, and half of their TD catches. Can Daniel Jones find a way to produce without his rookie sensation? Or will Joe Burrow and the Bengals pick up a win on the road and build some momentum?
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I have absolutely no reason to back this Giants team. On offense or defense. Especially without Nabers.
Daniel Jones completes just 64% of his passes, has a 2-1 TD:INT ratio, and has been sacked 12 times in 5 games. The offense runs for under 4 yards per carry with the number dropping to 2.2 at home this season. Overall, they move the ball for just 271 yards at home and rank dead last in home points per game, scoring just 10.5.
They put up just 17.8 points overall, so the offense has big issues regardless of where they play, and those issues could be highlighted tonight without Nabers. Now, the Bengals defense isn't good by any means, but against a cupcake offense like the Giants, this could be a get right game for the entire unit.
Bengals Defense Get Right Game
Excluding Week 1, Cincinnati has allowed 32.25 points per contest. They can't stop a nosebleed, but are the Giants capable of moving the ball? I slightly lean with the over. I know, I know, it's usually primetime unders, right? Well I certainly don't trust either defense, and Cincinnati's offense has found their groove. Again, excluding Week 1, despite allowing over 32 points per game, they are scoring 32.5 points themselves. They are 1-3 in their L4 games, despite outscoring their opponent by a quarter of a point per contest.
Cincinnati could be looking ahead to a road divisional bout against the Browns. Sure, it's the Browns. But the Bengals sit at 1-4, and have already dropped an AFC North matchup this season. Wins mean much more to this Cincy team who probably believes they can make the playoffs in their gauntlet of a division, so I could see them overlooking a bad Giants team. As for New York, they also have a divisional matchup next week, hosting the Philadelphia Eagles, who just beat the Browns today. The Giants just cashed their first over of the year last week, but have covered 3 straight spreads.
The Bengals have been involved in 4 straight overs this year, going 2-0 against the spread on the road. And I think they have another cover in them tonight.
I know the hook can be scary, but the Bengals are going to score. Whether or not they slow down the Giants (they should), I expect there to be plenty of points and opportunities for the Bengals to cover. Cincinnati is 1-4 on the year. They were so close to beating the Chiefs, were outshined by a rookie at home, and then melted away a 10 point lead with less than 9 minutes on the clock to the Ravens in Overtime. The difference between Cincy being where they are, and 4-1 is very small. I think their problems are fixable, even on the defensive end, and I certainly have no reason to back the Giants.
To be honest, I could see Cincinnati exploding offensively, and also looked at their team total over 26.5 at (-102). I trust them to score enough to cover the over by themselves if need be, but I do see the Giants finding the end zone at least a couple of times. Ultimately I see a very boring, one sided Sunday Night Football matchup, with the Bengals starting to find their groove.
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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