Chiefs vs. Titans | NFL Week 16 Breakdown & Best Bets: Minshew Magic in Music City
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Sat Dec 20, 2025, 12:48 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The Chiefs head to Tennessee this week for a game between two teams already looking to next year. The Titans will host Gardener Minshew and a Kansas City Chiefs team slated to miss the postseason for the first time since 2014. Let's jump right into it.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location:Nissan Stadium; Nashville, Tennessee
- Date: Sunday, December 21st, 2025
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Kansas City Chiefs: Gardener Minshew (2-7; 2024 – 206.6 YPG | 9 TD | 7 INT)
- Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward (2024 – n/a)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Minshew Magic
Kansas City is going to miss the playoffs for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era and it's just the cherry on top of an already forgettable year. Last week was a tough week for Kansas City fans. Not only were they officially eliminated from the playoffs but Patrick Mahomes season was ended by an unfortunate ACL injury.
The 3x Super Bowl Champ eyes a return for early next year but in the mean time it'll be Gardener Minshew taking the reigns of this Kansas City offense. Minshew started nine games last year for the Raiders, recording just two wins and averaging 206.6 pass yards per game with 9 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. He wasn't good by any means and now with the Chiefs season over I've tempered my expectations.
The Chiefs defense this year has been great. They rank 3rd in points allowed, 3rd in opponent first downs, 14th in opponent pass yards and 7th in opponent rush yards. The team's got the 2nd highest coverage grade and 6th highest run defense grade. They've done a great job of limiting opposing offenses, despite team's own offense not giving them a ton of runway to work with.
Titan Up!
The Titans have their eyes set on next year and thats okay. They've got their QB of the future, elite young talent on the offensive side and a Head Coaching job that needs to be filled. Tennessee's offense this year was just hard to watch. They averaged just 16.1 points per game (29th) and finished bottom five in every offensive category.
The team ranked dead last in third down conversion rate, first downs generated, passing yards and bottom two in rush yards per game. Defensively, outside of Jeffrey Simmons it wasn't any better. Tennessee ranked 28th in points allowed, 27th in opponent redzone efficiency, 25th in opponent pass yards and 27th in opponent yards per play.
This week's matchup with Gardener Minshew and a Chiefs team not set for the postseason just brings about so many different question marks. The Titans have no incentive to win, especially when you look at it from a perspective of draft selection. As it stands right now, the Titans would select 3rd and sit tied with just two wins on the year with both the Giants and Raiders.
The Titans have a chance at potentially securing back to back #1 overall picks and it's why it feels like a spot where Tennessee might just drop the ball.
Sunday's Best Bets
Travis Kelce o49.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | Lucky Rebel
In what might end up being his last year in the NFL, I'm looking to bet Travis Kelce a couple more times. With Mahomes out of the lineup and Minshew taking the reigns, I'm expecting a high percentage of his pass attempts to go this way. Kelce's seen 6+ targets in 7 of his L10 games and with Rice out this week I'm expecting that to only go up.
Kelce's seeing a 22.5% first read target share this year and thats 2nd only to Rice. He's also the Chiefs 2nd highest graded receiver against zone coverage and should look to exploit this Tennessee defense this week.
The Titans rank 25th in pass yards allowed this year and have struggled against opposing TEs over the last for weeks. Tennessee ranks 29th in receiving yards allowed to the TE position over the last four weeks and are tied for 2nd most touchdowns allowed to the position.
Tennessee's defense has been sub-par all year and this week wirh Minshew under center, I'm expecting him to lean on the veteran TE that much more. Look for Kelce to finish off this year strong and just add to his already loaded Hall of Fame resume.
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